October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 12 this morning in Klamath Falls, beating the previous record of 18 on 10/28/1946!

 

Or is this wishacasting? 

[Jesse]

Another gorgeous day.

[Deweydog]

Says the guy who started the whole thing.

 

Just playing along.

Dude, we got it. Move on.

 

There are bigger fish to fry. One month until Thanksgiving.

[Timmy Supercell]

Dude, we got it. Move on.

 

There are bigger fish to fry. One month until Thanksgiving.

 

If the whole first 20 days of November are one big nothing burger, this forum will have a lot to chew on until then 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Q & A was Nelsen, Pierce, Mass, Dittmer and Kelly Bayern from Koin 6.

[Deweydog]

If the whole first 20 days of November are one big nothing burger, this forum will have a lot to chew on until then

Cold Octobers can be tricky. Some will inevitably feel winter cancel reflexes kicking in. We just need to be supportive, stay positive and believe in the power of prayer.

[Guest CulverJosh]

To break up the drama and start some good conversation. Here is a pretty cool occurence...random but cool.

 

Spearfish holds the world record for the fastest recorded temperature change. On January 22, 1943, at about 7:30 a.m. MST, the temperature in Spearfish was −4°F (−20°C). The Chinook wind picked up speed rapidly, and two minutes later (7:32 a.m.) the temperature was +45 °F (+7 °C) above zero.

[Timmy Supercell]

Cold Octobers can be tricky. Some will inevitably feel winter cancel reflexes kicking in. We just need to be supportive, stay positive and believe in the power of prayer.

 

Not quite a winter cancel, November has just been averaging less of a wintery month anyway, including the cascades and east sides. So it's not a game over scenario if there's no Thanksgiving snow event. My last above average November snow was 2010. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

D**n clear sunny days and lowering sun angles! The sun is at a point that my north facing Ring doorbell gets hit with glare off of cars driving down the street, my phone has been getting blown up with alerts since about 11.

 

Only got down to about 35 this morning at my house, seems like its been a struggle for us to get below freezing this fall. I think we had one day that hit 29 and that was it. I am curious what the next few days will bring for Whatcom County.

[Kayla]

Arctic front just passed through here...

 

https://youtu.be/EMUj0lIBH94

[TT-SEA]

Video link does not work.

[Phil]

Wouldn’t surprise me if we entered a wet pattern in mid November like the gfs is saying, but who knows now, no model consensus really.

A mid-November extension of the NPAC jet is likely, but given the antecedent AAM condition (reduced w/ latitude) it’ll probably be splitty-ish, focused more into CA/etc vs a consolidated jet into BC/WA.

[Phil]

Is there a reason that the GFS isn’t accurate at all with East wind events? Seems that the NAM, RPM, and HRRR (which are consistently calling for gusts 40-50 mph tonight) and even the EURO is calling for 30-40 gusts. GFS always is much too weak. Forecasters seem to be going with the stronger models, but what gives?

GFS always seems to undershoot downsloping wind here as well. Probably has to do with boundary layer physics governing momentum transfer.

[Kayla]

Video link does not work.

 

Hopefully works now.

[Deweydog]

Hopefully works now.

Looks like Jim’s house back on Thanksgiving Day 2019.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully works now.

 

 

Yes.    And Good Lord that is crazy for October 28th.  

 

Sunny 52 here with light wind... gorgeous fall day but a little chilly for my liking. 

[Kayla]

Yes.    And Good Lord that is crazy for October 28th.  

 

Sunny 52 here with light wind... gorgeous fall day but a little chilly for my liking. 

 

Only just getting started as well...

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes. And Good Lord that is crazy for October 28th.

 

Sunny 52 here with light wind... gorgeous fall day but a little chilly for my liking.

47 here so far today beautiful weather. Probably won’t hit 50 tomorrow and maybe not the next day either.

[ShawniganLake]

d**n clear sunny days and lowering sun angles! The sun is at a point that my north facing Ring doorbell gets hit with glare off of cars driving down the street, my phone has been getting blown up with alerts since about 11.

 

Only got down to about 35 this morning at my house, seems like its been a struggle for us to get below freezing this fall. I think we had one day that hit 29 and that was it. I am curious what the next few days will bring for Whatcom County.

Not a ton of freezes in SW BC either with the exception of outlying and very wind sheltered locations

 

# of freezes by location

Agassiz 0

Abbotsford 1

Victoria YYJ 1

Vancouver YVR 2

Shawnigan Lake 3

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws disc. Calling for widespread lows in the 20s with some upper teens in the SW interior possibly Wednesday morning.

[Blizzard777]

Only just getting started as well...

Winter wonderland already!

say goodbye to your green grass and dirt until spring

[Jesse]

Not a ton of freezes in SW BC either with the exception of outlying and very wind sheltered locations

 

# of freezes by location

Agassiz 0

Abbotsford 1

Victoria YYJ 1

Vancouver YVR 2

Shawnigan Lake 3

How many freezes do those locations normally see by the fourth week of october

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 54F now. Let's see if we hit 60F.

[Jesse]

Up to 54F now. Let's see if we hit 60F.

 

EUG is reporting 52 degrees after a low of 27. Will probably top out in the mid-50s.

[wx_statman]

-17F in Saratoga, Wyoming this morning. The previous coldest reading so early in the season was 2F! I don't think I've ever seen an early-season benchmark broken by 19 degrees before. FWIW the monthly record was broken by 9 degrees (prev. -8 on 10/31/1972).

[ShawniganLake]

How many freezes do those locations normally see by the fourth week of october

October averages for # of freezes are from 0.5 at Agassiz to 1.2 at Abbotsford.

[wx_statman]

EUG is reporting 52 degrees after a low of 27. Will probably top out in the mid-50s.

 

That's a kold day for October. 

[Jesse]

-17F in Saratoga, Wyoming this morning. The previous coldest reading so early in the season was 2F! I don't think I've ever seen an early-season benchmark broken by 19 degrees before. FWIW the monthly record was broken by 9 degrees (prev. -8 on 10/31/1972).

 

The crazy thing is all of these eye popping numbers have just been with the first round. An even more impressive airmass is currently barreling down the northern Rockies as we speak...

[Front Ranger]

The crazy thing is all of these eye popping numbers have just been with the first round. An even more impressive airmass is currently barreling down the northern Rockies as we speak...

I was just gonna say the same thing. Some places will set monthly records, only to break them again within a few days.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The crazy thing is all of these eye popping numbers have just been with the first round. An even more impressive airmass is currently barreling down the northern Rockies as we speak...

 

If only it were 500 miles further west...

[Guest CulverJosh]

Anyone want to wager a bet on Burns reaching negatives the next 2 nights?

[Jesse]

If only it were 500 miles further west...

 

Many places in Washington and Oregon could approach monthly records, including the western valleys. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Many places in Washington and Oregon could approach monthly records, including the western valleys. 

 

Is this pretty much the same setup as late Oct/early Nov 2002?

[wx_statman]

I was just gonna say the same thing. Some places will set monthly records, only to break them again within a few days.

 

The MRF-MOS, with all of its reliability issues, has afternoon maximums of -1 in Rock Springs and 2 in Rawlins, WY tomorrow. If these numbers come even close to verifying it would be silly. 

[wx_statman]

Anyone want to wager a bet on Burns reaching negatives the next 2 nights?

 

Should happen

[FroYoBro]

Arctic front just passed through here...

 

https://youtu.be/EMUj0lIBH94

Sexy.

[Jesse]

Is this pretty much the same setup as late Oct/early Nov 2002?

 

Nearly identical. If only it were 500 miles further east...

[Guest CulverJosh]

7 day shows 10 for tonight and 1 for tomorrow night. Will be close.

[Deweydog]

Getting crunchy out there.

[TT-SEA]

Screw the global warming alarmists... we need some extra CO2 to protect us from what the solar system does to the planet!