October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Just realized I looked at the wrong run lol makes sense now.

[Jesse]

Yeah, the SWerlies break through and it turns wet and mild with an AR pointed at BC and Washington. A plausible evolution.

 

Wouldn’t be good for Phil’s dry Fall

I’d be ok with this. Can’t not rain forever. Might set us up for some goodies later in the month too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d be ok with this. Can’t not rain forever. Might set us up for some goodies later in the month too.

 

I am right there with you on this, and it is probably the progression that makes the most sense. 

[ShawniganLake]

I’d be ok with this. Can’t not rain forever. Might set us up for some goodies later in the month too.

Totally agree. Some storminess and maybe a pattern re set. Not that hr240+ means much but that’s a nice windstorm setup. Strong jet, SW flow, trough digging offshore

[Gradient Keeper]

10 AM Arctic front through Cranbrook, BC and is moving towards Creston, BC. From there it's a short distance to Idaho/Northeast Washington.

[Winterdog]

Must have had an uptick in breezes overnight or maybe a raccoon curled up around my temperature sensor but last night was warmer than the previous night. Low of 29. 34 now with a beautiful day ahead.

[MossMan]

On this day in 1991, it was 34/25 here with 3” of snow falling during the afternoon.

And then the rest of the winter was a crapfest if I remember correctly.

[ShawniganLake]

And then the rest of the winter was a crapfest if I remember correctly.

Total show. About as bad as it gets.

[Deweydog]

You guys need to STFU right now.

[ShawniganLake]

10 AM Arctic front through Cranbrook, BC and is moving towards Creston, BC. From there it's a short distance to Idaho/Northeast Washington.

Cranbrook reporting 1/4mile visibility in heavy snow. A sign of things to come!

[ShawniganLake]

You guys need to STFU right now.

LOW SOLAR!

 

Better?

[Deweydog]

LOW SOLAR!

 

Better?

Throw in some references to ENSO and a few other random acronyms and we’ll consider clearing your record.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October 1991 was way different overall though. The first half of the month was very warm. Salem had 8 highs of 80+. Their max for this month will end up being 71. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And then the rest of the winter was a crapfest if I remember correctly.

 

Big difference was this Oct was far colder overall than that one from start to finish.

[Front Ranger]

Meanwhile in South Dakota, -4F this morning in Edgemont. Denver has been sitting in the 10's with snow falling since yesterday evening.

Going to be all sorts of monthly records set this week throughout the West and Plains. Easily more impressive than 2002.

[Front Ranger]

October 1991 was way different overall though. The first half of the month was very warm. Salem had 8 highs of 80+. Their max for this month will end up being 71.

Yeah, it was incredibly warm here until the big cold wave at the end of the month. DEN set their all-time warm October temp around mid month, hitting 89.

 

Far different pattern this fall.

[stuffradio]

I’d be ok with this. Can’t not rain forever. Might set us up for some goodies later in the month too.

It's not like it's been bone dry here, but it's always much more wet here than down there.

[Deweydog]

Euro!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro does look a little colder for tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Forecast high in Laramie, Wyoming tomorrow is 4. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty sure a wind advisory is coming.

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 44 here at noon. Fog cleared out at about 10 and it’s now a beautiful day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 46F now.

[Timmy Supercell]

October 1991 was way different overall though. The first half of the month was very warm. Salem had 8 highs of 80+. Their max for this month will end up being 71. 

 

Yeah in the 1990's we had some big Indian Summers in K-Falls. It seems like those have been averaging cooler over the last 20 years.

[TT-SEA]

No clipper and no jet stream on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10:

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Let us all not believe everything we hear on a weather forum..ok?

 

It has warmed up to 48 here in Bend. Doubt it goes any higher...should be falling this afternoon.

[TacomaWaWx]

No clipper and no jet stream on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10:

 

Wouldn’t surprise me if we entered a wet pattern in mid November like the gfs is saying, but who knows now, no model consensus really.

[Timmy Supercell]

Let us all not believe everything we hear on a weather forum..ok?

 

It has warmed up to 48 here in Bend. Doubt it goes any higher...should be falling this afternoon.

 

Everything is true on the internet 

[Jesse]

Nice to see tomorrow’s event trend a notch or two more impressive in the home stretch.

[ShawniganLake]

[stuffradio]

Let us all not believe everything we hear on a weather forum..ok?

 

It has warmed up to 48 here in Bend. Doubt it goes any higher...should be falling this afternoon.

Cliff Mass really didn't share a stage with Steve Pierce!?

[Jesse]

Let us all not believe everything we hear on a weather forum..ok?

 

It has warmed up to 48 here in Bend. Doubt it goes any higher...should be falling this afternoon.

Don’t believe everything that you read, you get a parking violation and a maggot on your sleeve.

[Requiem]

Don’t believe everything that you read, you get a parking violation and a maggot on your sleeve.

 

So shave your face with some mace in the dark...

[Jesse]

Throw in some references to ENSO and a few other random acronyms and we’ll consider clearing your record.

Really just two categories on this forum the way I see it. Pessimists and idiots.

[Timmy Supercell]

STFU wishcaster.

 

I believe there's a difference between bringing up statistics and wishcasting. 

[Jesse]

I believe there's a difference between bringing up statistics and wishcasting.

Only the right kind of statistics.

[seattleweatherguy]

Pretty sure a wind advisory is coming.

Not for Seattle area but Espl yeah

[Deweydog]

Really just two categories on this forum the way I see it. Pessimists and idiots.

Settle down.

[Requiem]

Is there a reason that the GFS isn’t accurate at all with East wind events? Seems that the NAM, RPM, and HRRR (which are consistently calling for gusts 40-50 mph tonight) and even the EURO is calling for 30-40 gusts. GFS always is much too weak. Forecasters seem to be going with the stronger models, but what gives?

[Jesse]

Settle down.

Says the guy who started the whole thing.

 

Just playing along.