October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[High Desert Mat?]

The Dome is strong with this one.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Mat is drinking and wants to be a jerk. I am here to talk weather.

 

Anyone going to check out the northern lights?

[Front Ranger]

Fascinating. It sounds like the link to amplification is mostly a correlation that people have noticed, without a mechanism yet identified. cosmic ray flux in the atmosphere is also modulated by variations in earths magnetic field, so if that's important for clouds (which seems unlikely based on the much higher abundances of cloud particles vs. cosmic ray particles) then it would be more complicated than a simple correspondence to solar.

The big question is what will happen if solar activity stays very low for an extended period of time, like the Little Ice Age. There is plenty of research that indicates we are due to see another extended minimum...and some very smart people believe that would have some very significant effects on our climate - and possibly our civilization, as it has in the past.

 

The other big question is if things are different this time because of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Many believe that will prevent another Little Ice Age, but it's definitely not settled science.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Oh ffs. Go to hell.

Phil. For once in your life, just butt out. Ok?

 

I am trying to talk weather.

[Guest CulverJosh]

The big question is what will happen if solar activity stays very low for an extended period of time, like the Little Ice Age. There is plenty of research that indicates we are due to see another extended minimum...and some very smart people believe that would have some very significant effects on our climate - and possibly our civilization, as it has in the past.

 

The other big question is if things are different this time because of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Many believe that will prevent another Little Ice Age, but it's definitely not settled science.

I am a strong believer that low solar far supercedes any CO2 increases.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cheerio everyone! 

 

Nice departures today.

 

PDX -6

SLE -5

EUG -3

[Jesse]

Nice night!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Already 33 here. Teens are easily met tonight.

[joelgombiner]

enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.html

[Requiem]

Uh, strange day on the forum.

 

Anyways, I agree with SnowWiz, advisory-level winds seem feasible in certain areas— maybe PDX (gusts 35-45 seem likely) and parts of the Sound.

[Guest CulverJosh]

enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.html

That is an isolated study.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fyi. It is pretty clear tonight. Get away from the city and we could see some northern lights. Here in Culver could be good. I may partake.

 

Nice solar storm? Sorry, I've not been paying attention.

[Front Ranger]

enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.html

We shall see. They are using reconstructions prior to 1960 (they don't dispute the correlation since then) and the reliability of reconstructions varies.

 

There are always studies showing conflicting results. One study on a topic is never definitive, that's for sure.

[High Desert Mat?]

Show of hands, besides the dome, who drank yesterday at 730am before the weather meeting and continued until dusk? Just curious, cause I had to drive his drunk a** without a thank you or gas money. Weird I know but, 33 in Redmond now and done in with dome drunk ness forever. Gets old after 20 years.

[Phil]

enjoying the posts in solar. Post any articles if you've got em! Found one recent study showing no connection between solar and the NAO https://phys.org/news/2019-01-debunking-solar-cyclenorth-atlantic-winter-weather.html

Wow, I’m shocked that paper even got published. There was never any correlation between sunspots/irradiance and the NAO to begin with.

 

The NAO correlation relates to the derivative of the AP index/geomagnetic activity across solar minimum transits. There are additional longer term correlations governed by changes in the IPWP slosh as a function of multidecadal solar forcing, but that can vary in how it’s communicated through the system.

[Front Ranger]

I’m shocked that paper even got published. There was never any correlation between sunspots/irradiance and the NAO to begin with.

 

The correlation is between the derivative of the AP index across solar minimum transits and the NAO. There are longer term correlations governed by changes in the IPWP slosh as a function of multidecadal solar forcing, but that can vary in how it’s communicated.

Eh, the whole "it's the AP index, not the spots" thing is kind of semantics. They both drop during periods of low solar activity, both symptoms of the same general thing.

[Deweydog]

PDO!!!!

[High Desert Mat?]

Sex!!!!

[Phil]

Eh, the whole "it's the AP index, not the spots" thing is kind of semantics. They both drop during periods of low solar activity, both symptoms of the same general thing.

No, they don’t. See the 1960s, for example.

 

Radiation is not particle precipitation. The physical effects of irradiance on the system are completely different than the effects of particle bombardment..both in terms of how they’re dynamically communicated and the timescale through which this occurs.

 

[snow_wizard]

Mat is drinking and wants to be a jerk. I am here to talk weather.

 

Anyone going to check out the northern lights?

 

It appears the solar wind has died down so they probably won't be seen this far south.  We're supposed to get another round around Halloween.  

[umadbro]

Mat is drinking and wants to be a jerk. I am here to talk weather.

 

Anyone going to check out the northern lights?

You have anger issues

[snow_wizard]

Dropping like a rock here tonight.  Already down to 43 at 7pm.

[MossMan]

Nice day! After the game and painting the dining room I went out and did some mowing/leaf cleanup. Perfection!

 

Currently 38 degrees.

[Phil]

Show of hands, besides the dome, who drank yesterday at 730am before the weather meeting and continued until dusk? Just curious, cause I had to drive his drunk a** without a thank you or gas money. Weird I know but, 33 in Redmond now and done in with dome drunk ness forever. Gets old after 20 years.

Wait, seriously?

[Front Ranger]

No, they don’t. See the 1960s, for example.

 

Radiation is not particle precipitation. The physical effects of irradiance on the system are completely different than the effects of particle bombardment..both in terms of how they’re dynamically communicated and the timescale through which this occurs.

 

The correlation between the two is quite strong. Timing of onset, etc, aside.

 

Do you not agree that they are both closely tied to solar cycles?

[Phil]

The correlation between the two is quite strong. Timing of onset, etc, aside.

 

Do you not agree that they are both closely tied to solar cycles?

The correlation is NOT always strong. It can be strong, or can be inverted, like the 1970s.

 

The AP index often lags the sunspot/TSI cycle by a few years and can be completely out of phase when the Sun’s magnetic field fluctuates between solar cycles.

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/AreaAp.png

[Front Ranger]

The correlation is not always strong.

 

See the 1970s, 1950s, and 1940s.

 

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/AreaAp.png

Not always directly, but it's definitely a strong correlation overall.

 

And you didn't answer my question.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Uh, strange day on the forum.

 

Anyways, I agree with SnowWiz, advisory-level winds seem feasible in certain areas— maybe PDX (gusts 35-45 seem likely) and parts of the Sound.

Hawks game was our usual bittching about the team and they get the W vs a shitty team.

[Phil]

Not always directly, but it's definitely a strong correlation overall.

 

And you didn't answer my question.

Of course they’re related to solar cycles. I don’t see the point of that question though?

[jakeinthevalley]

Thanks Tim. The thing that sucks about any project up there is when you have to run into town because you forgot something. If you haul a** it's 3 hr round trip to Omak lol.

My projects require a minimum of 3 additional trips to the local hardware store. After my first trip, the clerks know me well enough to ask, "see you later today?"

 

"Yep."

[Blizzard777]

55/32

currently 45*

winds from the north decreasing.  14 mph around 6pm now down to 1 mph 10 minute adv.

[High Desert Mat?]

Wait, seriously?

Yes. 100%. I’m not going to get into more details but just just assume the drunk uncle. X100

[umadbro]

Who doesn't love a good family spat on a weather forum? An assaulter vs a drunk. Very entertaining.

[MossMan]

Wow! This kind of drama at a weather conference...Can’t wait until the Chris BBQ get together!!

[snow_wizard]

Good Lord!  Down to 40 now.  This is about 2 hours ahead of last night.

[Winterdog]

35 here already. No wind at all. Could be in the lower 20’s by morning.

[Requiem]

Family drama on a weather blog isn't something I thought I'd see today...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fred is going to be busy

[snow_wizard]

35 here already. No wind at all. Could be in the lower 20’s by morning.

 

Tonight has got overperformance written all over it.  The 850s or thicknesses aren't too impressive, but with high amplitude northerly flow good things can happen.  I got my earliest sub 30 low on record earlier this month and tonight I could easily do my earliest sub 28.  This has been an amazing stretch. Working on one of the coldest Octobers on record.

[snow_wizard]

39 now.  Still dropping a degree every 20 minutes.