October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. The Dalles ENE G 41mph. That's rare. I don't recall east winds ever getting much above 30-35mph there during arctic fronts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Easterlies gusting to 41 at The Dalles. Don’t see that pretty much ever.

I've never seen that before and even after I didn't see you say it, then I said it too, then I saw you said it. Yeah.

[TT-SEA]

22 in Pullman now.

 

I was checking record lows for October there... looks like it got down to 10 degrees there on 10/10/2009 and 7 degrees on 10/31/2002.

 

That 2009 air mass was really impressive... particularly considering it happened almost 3 weeks earlier.   

[Deweydog]

I've never seen that before and even after I didn't see you say it, then I said it too, then I saw you said it. Yeah.

Yeah that’s really exceptional. I imagine it’s being helped a bit by some of the downdrafts with the light precip falling with the front but still...

[TT-SEA]

Here is the final position of the trough at its farthest west position... which is happening right now.     We have been tracking it for a week.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah that’s really exceptional. I imagine it’s being helped a bit by some of the downdrafts with the light precip falling with the front but still...

Yeah absolutely it is. You're right the very light precip is helping some with mixing. I have to wonder if this may become a bigger wind event than is forecast/expected. This may be one of those occasions where as the wind ramps up you can stand outside and literally hear the low level jet/core of winds roaring overhead. That's creepy when that occurs. Awesome and creepy. More awesome than creepy. Okay. I've noticed when that happens you get sudden, very erratic strong gusts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is the final position of the trough at its farthest west position... which is happening right now.     We have been tracking it for a week.

 

Now imagine if this happened 2 months from now on December 28th. We would be looking at one hell of major backdoor blast with big league downslope/damaging winds.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 34F.  Might hit freezing before midnight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is the final position of the trough at its farthest west position... which is happening right now.     We have been tracking it for a week.

 

 

This is just an epic early season airmass. We are just on the edge and it is still impressive here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow! 140kt jet with this arctic blast. When is the last time we saw that?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

110kts 500mb jet over the Washington Cascades nosing down into the Eastern Gorge, North Central Oregon. Hmmm!

 

[TT-SEA]

This is just an epic early season airmass. We are just on the edge and it is still impressive here. 

 

 

Here is the 500mb anomaly map for the 2009 event... in the middle of October:

 

 

 

 

And the 500mb anomaly map for late October 2002:

 

[Deweydog]

Yeah absolutely it is. You're right the very light precip is helping some with mixing. I have to wonder if this may become a bigger wind event than is forecast/expected. This may be one of those occasions where as the wind ramps up you can stand outside and literally hear the low level jet/core of winds roaring overhead. That's creepy when that occurs. Awesome and creepy. More awesome than creepy. Okay. I've noticed when that happens you get sudden, very erratic strong gusts.

I actually think they won’t translate as well over here. It will still be windy but the best dynamics with this by far are east of the crest. Still windy but nothing too extreme.

[ShawniganLake]

Outflow has reached Victoria

 

[TT-SEA]

Current 850mb temperature anomalies:

 

 

 

And the 850mb temperature anomalies on 10/30/2002

 

 

 

And 10/11/2009:

 

[TT-SEA]

This looks very much like the late October 2002 set up... but this one is just a little farther east.

 

Not saying that is an analog.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF showing a weak front with some light rain and lots of low clouds on Sunday now.   Looks gunky and probably drizzly.  

 

Beautiful until Sunday though... and Saturday looks spectacular.  

[TT-SEA]

I actually think they won’t translate as well over here. It will still be windy but the best dynamics with this by far are east of the crest. Still windy but nothing too extreme.

 

 

 

So just to clarify...  it will still be windy right?  

[Deweydog]

How did winter 2002-03 turn out? Has that ever been discussed? What does “TT” stand for?

[Deweydog]

So just to clarify... it will still be windy right?

Have you ever known things to be still when it’s windy?

[TT-SEA]

How did winter 2002-03 turn out? Has that ever been discussed? What does “TT” stand for?

 

Not saying that at all.    This winter could be like 2009-10.     There is almost no chance of a 2002-03 type winter.  

 

I looked up extreme cold events in Pullman and was surprised at how cold 2002 and 2009 were... wanted to see what those patterns looked like out of curiosity.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 32F DP still 27F

[TT-SEA]

How did winter 2002-03 turn out? Has that ever been discussed? What does “TT” stand for?

 

I forgot what you said Deweydog meant... I think it was actually your dog at the time IIRC.

[Deweydog]

I forgot what you said Deweydog meant... I think it was actually your dog at the time IIRC.

He’s dead now.

[TT-SEA]

Temp seems to be slowly ticking upwards here and down in the valley. 

 

The arctic front must have arrived... as evidenced by a little warming.  

[TT-SEA]

He’s dead now.

 

R.I.P. Dewey the dog.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks like it was to set up a split flow pattern at the end of the run...

 

[Requiem]

Easterly flow is definitely here now....

[Gradient Keeper]

Just like that I have gone from calm to 20-30mph winds. C'MON!!!! Near west Gresham

[TT-SEA]

Temp just jumped up from 33 to 41 in North Bend in a matter of minutes... wind has arrived.

[Deweydog]

just showed up here all sudden like.

[TT-SEA]

s**t just showed up here all sudden like.

 

So it is still or is it windy?   Or still windy?

[FroYoBro]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Deweydog]

So it is still or is it windy? Or still windy?

Still as a windy night in late October when a analogously-controversial Arctic front comes a knocking.

[Gradient Keeper]

Maryhill, WA G 51. That seems really high for that location.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00Z ECMWF looks like it was to set up a split flow pattern at the end of the run...

 

02-03

[Deweydog]

Fairly decent advection already at Larch. Dropped four degrees in an hour with the wind.

[TT-SEA]

02-03

 

Warm west and cold east on the 00Z ECMWF:

 

[TT-SEA]

Fairly decent advection already at Larch. Dropped four degrees in an hour with the wind.

 

Opposite up here... up 10 degrees now in North Bend.     

 

Of course that east wind is downsloping here.

[Gradient Keeper]

12:40 AM Near west Gresham here I just had the first loud gust of this event 35mph+. Here we go! I hope it gets a lot stronger.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 48 minutes