October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Cross-cascade event on my birthday. What a treat!!

Happy birthday man.

[FroYoBro]

I’m outside for most of the day today and tomorrow. D**n that wind is cold! Im loving it though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably the most impressive low in Oregon last night was the 15 at Pendleton. Beat the record low of 19 from 1971 and is the earliest 15 on record there. The October monthly record low is 11 set in 1935, we will see if they can break that tomorrow 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 28F last night as the winds kicked in and the DPs hit the teens. Now up to 46F so should hit the mid-50s.

[High Desert Mat?]

Still only 20 degrees in bend at 11am. Crazy. Anyways, just got to Redmond and it’s 24. Pretty sweet that we can do this so early in the season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cross-cascade event on my birthday.  What a treat!!

 

Happy bday homie. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Laramie, WY reporting 0 with Heavy snow at noon, on October 29th.... Looks like they had a midnight high of 17. 

 

Saw Olympia hit 22 this morning too. 

[Dave]

Cross-cascade event on my birthday.  What a treat!!

Happy birthday! Mostly calm winds at my location. A bunch of pine needles have been falling.

[MossMan]

What if...what if we have one of those old school winters from the 1800’s...

 

Negative PNA all winter!

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

Or we could end up like 1991/92!

[Chewbacca Defense]

That was the first huge windstorm I ever experienced. The Coast got absolutely rocked with that one.

If I am remembering correctly, I was on the roof of my house (between Albany and Lebanon) putting up Christmas lights when that hit. It came up out of nowhere and I almost got blown off the roof, I had a hell of a time trying to get down, and I don’t do well with heights, so that cured me of getting on the roof for a while. That was my first huge windstorm as well, and I believe it was the first of a few that happened that fall/winter.

[TT-SEA]

Wind is very light here now and has been that way for a couple hours. I think the wind event is over up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Goodland, Kansas is forecast to hit 2 tomorrow night. Their October record is 1, so they will be very close. The coldest temp I can find in October in Kansas was 0, but I'm not sure if that is their official record. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still showing Sunday being a gunky low clouds and drizzly day.   So only half of the weekend will be nice.

[wx_statman]

Silly numbers everywhere right now. Baker City advected down to 18 on strong NW'erlies. Kalispell dropped to -2 without even really trying, setting their earliest subzero on record. Cheyenne, WY is sitting at 3 degrees with snow falling. I'm sitting here thinking that I would be tracking these numbers as a legit Arctic airmass even in January. 

 

Snuck down to -3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snuck down to -3

 

Tonight could be mind blowing. I see Joseph, OR is only at 17 degrees right now. 

[wx_statman]

Looks like Goodland, Kansas is forecast to hit 2 tomorrow night. Their October record is 1, so they will be very close. The coldest temp I can find in October in Kansas was 0, but I'm not sure if that is their official record.

 

The Infoplease table lists -3 back in 1917, but those tables are not always accurate. 

 

https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/weather/kansas-temperature-extremes

[Kayla]

Looks like Bozeman Airport just shattered their all-time October record low... -13F.

 

Snuck down to -14F. Records began in 1941 there.

[wx_statman]

Tonight could be mind blowing. I see Joseph, OR is only at 17 degrees right now. 

 

Yeah, I'm really curious to see the lows tonight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene may hit the mid-50s today, but that is kind of irrelevant in terms of how low they go tonight. They hit 17 on the 31st in 2002 and 2006. With both events their highs the previous day were in the 50s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Often we see highs achieved a couple hours earlier than usual with such well mixed airmasses. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42/6 at noon at PDX on October 29th...

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 43 here at noon. Wind died down quite a bit after about 9am just a light breeze now. DP has been in the single digits all morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If Salem can decouple tonight I think they could have a shot at their monthly low. The dewpoint there is now down to 5. 

[TT-SEA]

For all the hand-wringing over the models... the ECMWF actually did quite well.

 

Here is what it showed one week ago for today:

 

 

 

And here is what actually happened:

 

[Kayla]

The amount of cold air that the models are showing in North America over the next 10+ days is truly incredible for early November. 

[GHweatherChris]

For all the hand-wringing over the models... the ECMWF actually did quite well.

 

Here is what it showed one week ago for today:

 

https://i.postimg.cc/LsbyRTXd/20191029-115928.jpg[/im]

 

 

And here is what actually happened:

 

https://i.postimg.cc/FK5Rqtyw/20191029-115914.jpg[/im]

GFS comparison?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The amount of cold air that the models are showing in North America over the next 10+ days is truly incredible for early November. 

 

It is. What I like too, is even when the flow turns more zonal towards the end of the long range, it still stays pretty cold over much of Canada 

[TT-SEA]

The amount of cold air that the models are showing in North America over the next 10+ days is truly incredible for early November. 

 

Luckily (in my opinion)... it all misses us.

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows warmer than normal 850mb temps here starting tomorrow through the end of the run.

[TT-SEA]

GFS comparison?

 

 

ECMWF did much better!

 

GFS one week ago for today:

 

 

 

And what actually happened:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Luckily (in my opinion)... it all misses us.

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows warmer than normal 850mb temps here starting tomorrow through the end of the run.

 

Goodness, I wish we could do something about this constant torching!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dewpoints now well below 0 across much of Eastern Oregon. Down to -13 at Burns. Aurora is checking in with a DP of 0 here in the Willamette Valley. 

[Kayla]

Luckily (in my opinion)... it all misses us.

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows warmer than normal 850mb temps here starting tomorrow through the end of the run.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it all trends west again... It'll be November, don't you want snow by then??

[TT-SEA]

Goodness, I wish we could do something about this constant torching!

 

 

I did not say anything about that.

 

I said that 850mb temps are warmer than normal for the entire 12Z ECMWF run after today.    Check it out for yourself.  

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't be surprised if it all trends west again... It'll be November, don't you want snow by then??

It did not really trend too far west on the ECMWF over the last week... just a few notches.

 

And what I want is irrelevant to nature. I think its far more likely that the westerlies break through eventually and we have a rainy period lasting at least 7-10 days... maybe starting around November 10th give or take a couple days.

 

And I think that would be a good thing and would set us up for late November.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF shows the wind continuing all night tonight for many areas. Including King County and the Portland area. Some wind sheltered areas might decouple though... like Eugene and Olympia.

[Kayla]

It did not really trend too far west on the ECMWF over the last week... just a few notches.

 

And what I want is irrelevant to nature. I think its far more likely that the westerlies break through eventually and we have a rainy period lasting at least 7-10 days... maybe starting around November 10th give or take a couple days.

 

And I think that would be a good thing and would set us up for late November.

 

It wouldn't take much of a westward shift to get real cold once again with that cold air source.

 

And then there was this two weeks ago. I massive bust by the EPS. No model is perfect.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Luckily (in my opinion)... it all misses us.

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows warmer than normal 850mb temps here starting tomorrow through the end of the run.

Snow at the end of November would be nice.

[TT-SEA]

It wouldn't take much of a westward shift to get real cold once again with that cold air source.

 

And then there was this two weeks ago. I massive bust by the EPS. No model is perfect.

 

fullsizeoutput_22bd.jpeg

 

 

Two weeks out is very different than one week out.   

 

The ECMWF only ended up slightly west of what it showed a week ago.    Its much farther away with the cold for early next week than it was a week ago for today.

 

After that... I think the westerlies will kick in eventually for at least a week.   That seems quite likely given that its November and we are working on a long dry spell right now.