October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Kayla]

Two weeks out is very different than one week out.   

 

The ECMWF only ended up slightly west of what it showed a week ago.    Its much farther away with the cold for early next week than it was a week ago for today.

 

After that... I think the westerlies will kick in eventually for at least a week.   That seems quite likely given that its November and we are working on a long dry spell right now.

 

Looks pretty close to me... If a 500 mile shift west is a lot then you have way too much confidence in our modeling capabilities. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I totally missed what Phil said that was controversial? That this month reminded him of October 2009?

 

October 2009 was quite an average month, especially in comparison to this one.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just talked to friends over close to my cabin and it's 25 degrees at 12:45 pm after a low of 12. Crazy for October

[Timmy Supercell]

Temperature is only 37 and with a -1 DP.. Like WTF I don't think this is October.

[seattleweatherguy]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF shows the wind continuing all night tonight for many areas. Including King County and the Portland area. Some wind sheltered areas might decouple though... like Eugene and Olympia.

How windy?

[Front Ranger]

Nice name.

Sounds like a cow to me.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If I am remembering correctly, I was on the roof of my house (between Albany and Lebanon) putting up Christmas lights when that hit. It came up out of nowhere and I almost got blown off the roof, I had a hell of a time trying to get down, and I don’t do well with heights, so that cured me of getting on the roof for a while. That was my first huge windstorm as well, and I believe it was the first of a few that happened that fall/winter.

Wow that's crazy, glad you didn't fall off! I was too young to follow the storm in real time but after reading write ups about it, it made me appreciate the storm even more. The 12-12-95 Sou'wester was actually deeper than the Columbus Day Storm but it didn't hug the Coast as much. Still was a monster windstorm for the Coast and other areas.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 48F with a DP of 12F. Just insane for the south valley this early.

[jakeinthevalley]

Wow that's crazy, glad you didn't fall off! I was too young to follow the storm in real time but after reading write ups about it, it made me appreciate the storm even more. The 12-12-95 Sou'wester was actually deeper than the Columbus Day Storm but it didn't hug the Coast as much. Still was a monster windstorm for the Coast and other areas.

It was a little breezy in Salem that afternoon, but peak gusts really only lasted for an hour or so. Got out of work early and I never even lost power.

[Front Ranger]

It did not really trend too far west on the ECMWF over the last week... just a few notches.

 

To be fair, the Euro 6 days out was further east. It was further off than the 7 day map.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Luckily (in my opinion)... it all misses us.

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows warmer than normal 850mb temps here starting tomorrow through the end of the run.

Better we miss now than Thanksgiving onwards.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Dewpoints now well below 0 across much of Eastern Oregon. Down to -13 at Burns. Aurora is checking in with a DP of 0 here in the Willamette Valley.

That Aurora reading is impressive.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sounds like a cow to me.

I know not everyone is into naming Winter Storms but I like it. Winter Storm Jupiter (1-10-17) is something I will always remember and it's good to have a name attached to such an epic snowstorm.

[FroYoBro]

I know not everyone is into naming Winter Storms but I like it. Winter Storm Jupiter (1-10-17) is something I will always remember and it's good to have a name attached to such an epic snowstorm.

Lol, you are probably the only person who actually remembers the storm names. Dates make way more sense to me.

[FroYoBro]

Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall Tim I agree with your thoughts on the upcoming pattern 

[GHweatherChris]

Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about?

Offical observation at 130 shows 45.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about?

 

I don't know, but it is annoying 

[GHweatherChris]

Seems like pdx hasn’t updated their observations for an hour and a half on weather.gov. Anyone know what that is about?

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/other_obs.php?wfo=pqr&zone=ORZ006

[FroYoBro]

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/other_obs.php?wfo=pqr&zone=ORZ006

Cool. Thanks!

[Dave]

The only thing that remembers the names of those winter storms,other than a couple of dozen people, are the weather channel databases. On the other hand, everyone that experiences a named tropical system remembers it.

 

Whoever greenlighted that at TWC needs to be kicked in the balls.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The only thing that remembers the names of those winter storms,other than a couple of dozen people, are the weather channel databases. On the other hand, everyone that experiences a named tropical system remembers it.

 

Whoever greenlighted that at TWC needs to be kicked in the balls.

 

Agreed

[Andrew.]

Only up to 39.6 degrees here (830 feet west hills of Portland) at 2:05pm, feels more like an early January day! It's also leaf apocalypse with the wind.

 

[Winterdog]

Dry air finally moved in here. Dew point now 14, max today so far 43 and holding.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 52F with a DP of 12F.  Will probly be the warm spot aside from the coast.

 

I vividly remember winter storm Cleon (entire CONUS arctic air) from Dec 2013 and of course Ryan from this past Feb 25-28.  I agree it's still idiotic.

[Requiem]

I remember Jupiter of course, almost 20 inches in 10 hours!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 52F with a DP of 12F.  Will probly be the warm spot aside from the coast.

 

I vividly remember winter storm Cleon (entire CONUS arctic air) from Dec 2013 and of course Ryan from this past Feb 25-28.  I agree it's still idiotic.

 

I don't remember the names at all. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It was a little breezy in Salem that afternoon, but peak gusts really only lasted for an hour or so. Got out of work early and I never even lost power.

Yeah, Salem only topped out at 59 mph. Some higher gusts up the Valley. Some locations on the Oregon Coast got into the 100+ mph range.

 

[MossMan]

Yeah, Salem only topped out at 59 mph. Some higher gusts up the Valley. Some locations on the Oregon Coast got into the 100+ mph range.

 

It was fun watching all of the pretty transformers blowing causing the night sky to light up quite frequently that night!

[Jbolin]

It was fun watching all of the pretty transformers blowing causing the night sky to light up quite frequently that night!

Very rarely do the actual distribution transformers (roughly 4-6 poles apart) explode. 

 

What does explode is the distribution fuse being fed by that particular transformer line (or bank), so when you see a "power flash", 85% of the time it is a fuse and/or fuses on the same line. 

 

A transformer explosion cannot be confused with a fuse explosion. 

[wx_statman]

Yeah, Salem only topped out at 59 mph. Some higher gusts up the Valley. Some locations on the Oregon Coast got into the 100+ mph range.

 

 

Someone in Quillayute called a friend in Roseburg and asked - "you hear about this storm? you seeing any damage?"...both ended the call confused. 

[MossMan]

Very rarely do the actual distribution transformers (roughly 4-6 poles apart) explode.

 

What does explode is the distribution fuse being fed by that particular transformer line (or bank), so when you see a "power flash", 85% of the time it is a fuse and/or fuses on the same line.

 

A transformer explosion cannot be confused with a fuse explosion.

True. But I think 99% of people call it a transformer blowing, and the brilliant bluish light that is caused from it. And I remember showering in our camper since it had hot water, our powerless house for about 3 days did not.

[TacomaWaWx]

46 here at 3:15.

[Jbolin]

True. But I think 99% of people call it a transformer blowing, and the brilliant bluish light that is caused from it. And I remember showering in our camper since it had hot water, our powerless house for about 3 days did not.

The "blue flash" is the best indicator to distinguishing between a fuse and transformer. 

 

I've seen three transformer explosions and they are gnarly. An increasingly loud buzzing sound soon followed by a fireball of varying brightness and size all the while spewing boiling or flaming mineral oil outwards twenty plus feet in all directions. (in addition to various electrical parts) 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Bend has now quickly cooled down to 29...34 in Culver. Impressive airmass.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Wow that's crazy, glad you didn't fall off! I was too young to follow the storm in real time but after reading write ups about it, it made me appreciate the storm even more. The 12-12-95 Sou'wester was actually deeper than the Columbus Day Storm but it didn't hug the Coast as much. Still was a monster windstorm for the Coast and other areas.

Yeah that was no so fun, but I did have a fun experience in the Willamette Valley a few years later with a monster windstorm, and I was driving a ‘69 bug for that one. The wind was out of the south, and going east on Hwy 34 I had my wheel cranked over 90 degrees to keep it straight down the road, with water blowing through the passenger window seals and hitting me. I got on 5 north and had no problem getting the car up to 70-75....may have even been 80. The engine was screaming revs-wise but was not really working hard thanks to the very strong tailwind. I probably would have struggled to get it up to 40 going southbound without nuking the motor!

[High Desert Mat?]

One of my ice trees is coming tonight guys. With a low in the single digits it should be decent

[GobBluth]

18z has some sexy looking merging of polar and subtropical jet about 10 days out. otherwise real boring stuff.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah that was no so fun, but I did have a fun experience in the Willamette Valley a few years later with a monster windstorm, and I was driving a ‘69 bug for that one. The wind was out of the south, and going east on Hwy 34 I had my wheel cranked over 90 degrees to keep it straight down the road, with water blowing through the passenger window seals and hitting me. I got on 5 north and had no problem getting the car up to 70-75....may have even been 80. The engine was screaming revs-wise but was not really working hard thanks to the very strong tailwind. I probably would have struggled to get it up to 40 going southbound without nuking the motor!

Must of been wild trying to get your wheels at the right angle. Quite a few times when I've been driving through the Gorge, I've had to deal with strong headwinds. It's no fun, takes longer to get to your destination and you use up more gas. On the flipside, when you got a strong tailwind with you it's awesome.