Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 That’s a classic -NAO precursor pattern on the 00z GFS. Massive Scandinavia/N-Siberia Ridge. Sends all the cold into Putin’s backyard initially but long term it would evolve into something nice. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 54/45 and still no rain. EUG recorded a T on the 5th which is a joke because there was no precip that day. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Good news for the ledge jumpers. No correlation between November temps and the subsequent DJF anomaly in the PNW region.Unless you live in the Yakima area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Oh boy, the EPS and GFS/GEFS both have a very favorable progression for a wave-2 type stratospheric disruption now. Might not culminate in a SSW, but the vortex will take a prolonged beating after Thanksgiving. Enjoy this reprieve while it lasts..blocking is coming back in a big way in 2-3 weeks. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Hyperbole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Should be a pretty torchy next several days down here. 50ish lows tonight and maybe up to the mid 60s in the days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Should be a pretty torchy next several days down here. 50ish lows tonight and maybe up to the mid 60s in the days. Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing perusing the models. Warm pattern continues in the upper levels, but with more clouds and better mixing preventing the chilly nights and occasional cool/foggy days we have seen so far this month. Most stations in the I-5 corridor should be a degree or more above average month to date by the end of the next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 The GFS is really bullish on a major pattern shift during week two now. I like the looks of where it's going. Late in the run it shows thicknesses dropping to 528 with continental flavor. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern. 391CB2CF-58CF-47D3-8F5B-ADDED723CADF.png A lot of decently chilly members there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Should be a pretty torchy next several days down here. 50ish lows tonight and maybe up to the mid 60s in the days. The surface gradients look very favorable for some places to be cold tomorrow night. Other than that it looks pretty warmish. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 A lot of very nice years showing up in the CPC analogs. Many of the good ones are 1950s and 60s. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 .31" in Ridgefield is about .30" more than I expected today. Not bad considering... 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 HyperboleMath. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Good news for the ledge jumpers. No correlation between November temps and the subsequent DJF anomaly in the PNW region. There is actually a bit of a negative correlation in the PNW from what I have discovered. The big exception to that is if November is cold after a cold October. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Hyperbolmatics. Matherbole? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Starting to look like 11/20 and MLK Day might be in jeopardy. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern. 391CB2CF-58CF-47D3-8F5B-ADDED723CADF.pngA bunch of members between -0c to -4c. Mt. Snowpack would be building nicely. 12z GFS in 9 hours 16 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Contest for when blocking returns over the NPAC/GoA? 00z GEM in 21 hours 50 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 There is actually a bit of a negative correlation in the PNW from what I have discovered. The big exception to that is if November is cold after a cold October.I’m not a big believer in this stuff, but there’s a pretty strong correlation here between cold outbreaks in November and subsequent repeats in January/midwinter, for whatever reason. Probably a statistical fluke like most of these things, since it didn’t show up until the 1970s. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Another really weird one is all moderate/strong niños with warm Novembers here (since at least 1950) have been followed by snowier than average winters. No exceptions. Has to be a fluke but the statistical odds of that being so are like 1/10,000 at this point. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Hyperbolmatics. Matherbole?AboveTheFrayPerboleMatics 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Indo-Pacific subsidence/weak walker cell continues into the long range on most of the modeling following the MJO pass. That might be the background state this winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 AboveTheFrayPerboleMaticsIt’s kolder up here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Indo-Pacific subsidence/weak walker cell continues into the long range on most of the modeling following the MJO pass. That might be the background state this winter.If it is, what would that mean weather-wise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 If it is, what would that mean weather-wise?You don’t wanna know... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Contest for when blocking returns over the NPAC/GoA? 00z GEM in 21 hours 50 minutes I'm guessing late this month. The ECMWF is showing a classic two steps back (west) / one step forward (east) retrogression. By day 10 the ridge is well offshore. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I'm guessing late this month. The ECMWF is showing a classic two steps back (west) / one step forward (east) retrogression. By day 10 the ridge is well offshore.I see hints of that as well. Maybe the EPS will too.... 6z NAM in 23 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 The numbers are already in for October. Pretty D**n impressive! Washington State = 2nd coldest October on record back to 1895 Puget Sound Lowlands = 9th coldest October on record 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 6z GFS - The jet appears that it is finally starting to look respectable. At least on this run. It starts to strengthen and consolidate over the West Pacific after Day 8 now. Long Range is really wet with more active weather systems. I tend to think this is likely and it follows Climo coinciding with the MJO progression. If so, we may see some models showing much wetter solutions and possibly see some deep lows spinning up offshore. 'Tis the Season! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 6z GFS Ensembles - Wetter, cooler http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Looks like the jet stream is about to get active, going to be a normal November after all. Hopefully this ends up bringing some decent systems into our region. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 50 and foggy currently. No rain since midnight, 0.27” of rain yesterday. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Some encouraging model trends. Cloudy and 44 here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Visibility is less than 100 yards here at the moment. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 .02” so far today. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Gfs shows some light rain mid-week, but fairly wet next weekend into early next week. Looks a lot more typical of November. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I will say, looking at the latest guidance they all show the NPAC blocking quickly building back in by day 9, just as Phil called it. Just hope this blocking episode is more favorable for the west than the last one. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Best in a while for the long range. Especially if you are looking for a cooler/wetter/more active pattern. 391CB2CF-58CF-47D3-8F5B-ADDED723CADF.pngNovember has a heartbeat , Amen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.