November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS shows some snow on Mt Hood in the long range.

[Jesse]

It’s funny because his response was one of my worn out go-to’s.

Total coincidence.

[Jesse]

[GHweatherChris]

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 1956 airmass was the coldest ever in February at SLE too.  For November the top tier is 1955, 2010, 1993 at SLE. 

[Jesse]

18z ensembles looking pretty good.

 

[Jesse]

Hey frontal we’re on a new page, you better quote those EPS maps.

[Jesse]

A seasonably cool 50/38 here today, with .15” precip,

[Gradient Keeper]

Best Forum ever created? I love it when I have absolutely no idea what is going on, what's being discussed, who is arguing with who or what about, all of the layers of sarcasm, one-upping each other, the clever wit and humor, then you sprinkle in all of the historical data, research, and all around knowledge. Yep. Not too shabby.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 26 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Someone is anxious.

 

2002.

 

I really should have been posting HOLY CRAP!!! and OMG!!! with all of those maps. But I just don't care that much.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Bring the mountain snow!

Mountain snow in December, lowland snow in January and Pineapple expresses in February!

[GHweatherChris]

Pointful!

Fact!

[Jesse]

Fact!

It is DEFINITELY a calendar date. And no one will ever take that away from it.

[Front Ranger]

Someone is anxious.

 

2002.

 

I really should have been posting HOLY CRAP!!! and OMG!!! with all of those maps. But I just don't care that much.

Tim Cool.

[GHweatherChris]

It is DEFINITELY a calendar date. And no one will ever take that away from it.

I am sure a certain few could try and argue it though...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Total snow over the next 10 days per the ECMWF:

 

Maybe the snow resorts can open in Oregon by late Feb.

Decent snowfall up in BC, that's always good. We won't have to wait that long. Could be a winter where we see one or two warning shots that deliver lots of mountain snow before the Arctic hammer drops.

[GHweatherChris]

Someone is anxious.

 

2002.

 

I really should have been posting HOLY CRAP!!! and OMG!!! with all of those maps. But I just don't care that much.

Your post count would like to see you in his office.

[Jesse]

I am sure a certain few could try and argue it though...

Once it fades into the past it may be eaten by langoliers.

[TT-SEA]

Tim Cool.

I am so cool! You would think 2 weeks of dry weather at the wettest time of year would have me unable to contain my excitement.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hey frontal we’re on a new page, you better quote those EPS maps.

I'm not on here 24/7 in realtime. I reply in order of post. I also never log on and post here during the evening hours and never on Sunday anymore due to Church. Anything posted tonight and on Sunday, I'll go through in order and reply on Monday.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's been one week since a Californian (other than me) has posted in the California thread.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm not on here 24/7 in realtime. I reply in order of post. I also never log on and post here during the evening hours and never on Sunday anymore due to Church. Anything posted tonight and on Sunday, I'll go through in order and reply on Monday.

Discipline

[Omegaraptor]

It's been one week since a Californian (other than me) has posted in the California thread.

 

Not many Californians on weather forums in general (at least the ones I use). The other weather forum I use has about 100 members, none of which are Californian.

 

Doesn't help that the parts of CA with actually interesting weather are sparsely populated.

[Anti Marine Layer]

I am so cool! You would think 2 weeks of dry weather at the wettest time of year would have me unable to contain my excitement.

November is the sunniest month of the year in San Diego. Despite the fact that it is dark at 5:30.

[TT-SEA]

November is the sunniest month of the year in San Diego. Despite the fact that it is dark at 5:30.

Lived there for 12 years... I am aware.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm not on here 24/7 in realtime. I reply in order of post. I also never log on and post here during the evening hours and never on Sunday anymore due to Church. Anything posted tonight and on Sunday, I'll go through in order and reply on Monday.

Honest question, do you avoid all social media on Sundays or just this forum?

[Timmy Supercell]

The 1956 airmass was the coldest ever in February at SLE too.  For November the top tier is 1955, 2010, 1993 at SLE. 

 

How was that in southern OR? It was the only 100 inch winter in K-Falls.

 

Nov 1955, 1985, 2010 were probably top 3 Novembers for snow as well in this area.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS gets really interesting late in the run.  A pretty solid shot of chilly air with northerly gradients and then the classic explosive 150 block precursor at the end.  I will feel VERY good about the prospect for this winter if we get into a cold / trough regime again by the end of the month.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Honest question, do you avoid all social media on Sundays or just this forum?

Just this forum and looking at models. Last winter I was only getting 2 or 3 hours of sleep a night because I was so anxious on what the 6z GFS would show that I couldn't really sleep much. My health was suffering. Also when I was at church instead of listening to the pastor, I would be on my phone looking at models and posting on here. So that's why I told myself I would take Sundays off to give myself a break. But if there's an incoming blizzard or monster windstorm, then for sure I'll follow it in realtime.

[snow_wizard]

Discipline

 

Does not compute....

[snow_wizard]

Just this forum and looking at models. Last winter I was only getting 2 or 3 hours of sleep a night because I was so anxious on what the 6z GFS would show that I couldn't really sleep much. My health was suffering. Also when I was at church instead of listening to the pastor, I would be on my phone looking at models and posting on here. So that's why I told myself I would take Sundays off to give myself a break. But if there's an incoming blizzard or monster windstorm, then for sure I'll follow it in realtime.

 

Just wait until things get fun again!

[GHweatherChris]

Does not compute....

Computes perfectly for what I commented on.

[GHweatherChris]

Just this forum and looking at models. Last winter I was only getting 2 or 3 hours of sleep a night because I was so anxious on what the 6z GFS would show that I couldn't really sleep much. My health was suffering. Also when I was at church instead of listening to the pastor, I would be on my phone looking at models and posting on here. So that's why I told myself I would take Sundays off to give myself a break. But if there's an incoming blizzard or monster windstorm, then for sure I'll follow it in realtime.

Respect

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First 9 days of November have had a negative departure at SLE.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It was 93 in Fullerton today, but it is dropping quickly now that the sun has set.

[Timmy Supercell]

Quite a stretch of warm highs... .

 

11/01: 63 (+9)

11/02: 64 (+11)

11/03: 65 (+13)

11/04: 67 (+15)

11/05: 61 (+10)

11/06: 64 (+13)

11/07: 61 (+11)

11/08: 67 (+18)

11/09: 65 (+16)

 

And avoided matching any of the record highs so far this month.

[Jesse]

First 9 days of November have had a negative departure at SLE.

Peteyecks 2.

 

Somewhere between -1.5 and 2 after today by my calculations.

[Cloud]

Finally feels like a typical fall day around here. After some rain this morning it has been a misty and drizzly day all day. Received 0.22” of rain and might get some more as there is a band of moisture been sitting over us most of the day.

[snow_wizard]

Peteyecks 2.

 

Somewhere between -1.5 and 2 after today by my calculations.

 

I'm at 43.8 for the month to date which is normal for the entire month.  Probably -2 or so.