Clinton Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12Z nam coming in even stronger. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12Z nam coming in even stronger.Beat me to it. Definitely going to be looking for the mesoscale features in today’s short-term models. Some of the banding looks insane. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Beat me to it. Definitely going to be looking for the mesoscale features in today’s short-term models. Some of the banding looks insaneThat run gives me thunderstorms, with the low tracking right over me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 That’s one heck of a band. Stretches the entire width of the state. Not sure what the dendritic growth zone looks like yet, but we should be stacking some serious flakes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Nam still sticking to it guns, dry air wins here. Although being more aggressive with the Friday snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Word of caution. The SR models were a bit over-amped at this range on the last storm. They simmered down about 24 hrs out. Still, not sure how this isn't a bliz in hardest hit areas if it's indeed in the 980's with all that open land in the Corn Belt 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 The Ski resorts up in the U.P are going to be lovin' this early season winter storm. I remember back in the mid 90's, maybe it was Nov of '94, I went up to Indianhead Mtn Ski Resort for Thanksgiving with my older brother and his high school friends. We had 2 feet of powder up there purely from Lake Effect snow. It was such a beautiful site to see and one of the more memorable trips I took up there. One of the places I'd like to visit are the Apostle Islands during the heart of Winter and go see the Ice Caves. Should be a great year for that come January. Man, the UP's going to be bad, bad, bad. Considering much of that area already has some snow base OTG, and those are some stout totals off the Euro. Comes in a shorter time than the usual LES too. Add some near-bliz gusts and travel's going to be a rough go! Later this winter you should get up there. That's some serious "north country" my friend. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I see the 12z GFS had 11.5" for Omaha and the 6z has 0.4". Quite the reliable model. Honestly, it's sad what has become of the GFS. The old GFS was far more reliable. Just look at the snow maps on the GFS and you see all these weird holes of lower qpf that don't look like they below. There is just something flat out wrong with it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 One other item about the impending storm. Today and tomorrow at Nebraska's Memorial Stadium is all 6 of the classes for the state championship football games. Some schools that play tonight or tomorrow are not sending their cheerleaders, band, etc. One being Scottsbluff. They play tonight at 7:15 PM and it is about a 7 hour drive to Lincoln. Here is a tweet from their all state QB. https://twitter.com/HarshSabastian/status/1198979458180337665?s=20 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I am putting all my stock in the 12z WRF -- Hope it is onto something! I80 special?! https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112512&fh=37&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc= 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I am putting all my stock in the 12z WRF -- Hope it is onto something! I80 special?! https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112512&fh=37&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=Those do look like they have sagged a little south for sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Great model watching event here. 50 miles will make the difference. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I am putting all my stock in the 12z WRF -- Hope it is onto something! I80 special?! https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=sn10_acc&rh=2019112512&fh=37&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=GFS is showing that small pocket of enhanced amounts over the metro again like last night. Not the absurd amounts, but makes you wonder if it's onto something. Otherwise, yes the WRF is about our only hope of anything more than an inch or two. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Canadian jogs ever so slightly southeast with that super sharp cutoff stretching from Lincoln to Omaha. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 It's all about timing. If the change over happens sooner then the moisture won't be an issue. If it's later then the cold air will choke out the moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 @ Niko And you thought I was j/k.. .UPDATE...Issued at 1125 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019This is more of a Head`s up sort of thing, based on the latestmodel data and considering trends, I was planning on issuing ahigh wind watch for our lake shore counties for Wednesday intoWednesday evening. Likely we would do a breeze advisory tomorrow forthe rest of our counties. The latest NAM has wind gusts near 50knots with near the shore during the afternoon on Wednesday. Theensemble be mean of the Ecmwf has 60 mph gusts at BIV, MKG, LWAand more like 50 to 55 mph at AZO, BTL, GRR. There is excellentmodel continuity on this wind event. From our office climate datathis could be one of the stronger wind events in more than a year. Seriously, do NWS offices not have the word "windy" in their dictionaries?? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12Z Euro gives me a solid 10" of snow. Looks like it will be a heavy, wet snow which will cause issues for sure. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro giving Omaha close to 5" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro holds serve. Looks like we’re locked and loaded. Showing about 9” here Kuchera. Ratios shouldn’t be a whole lot higher than 11:1 to maybe 13:1. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro giving Omaha close to 5" Sure seems that the snow shield has sagged a little bit south on some of the models, which should be better for places in Eastern Nebraska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro giving Omaha close to 5"Euro favoring the cold air to get here sooner. Maybe there is some hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Oax going 1-5 lol nice tight range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro favoring the cold air to get here sooner. Maybe there is some hope.Good luck. Colleges in Central Nebraska already closing tomorrow, UNK and Hastings College closed Tuesday. My daughter goes to UNK in Kearney and will be coming home this afternoon. We are relieved that she wouldn't have to drive tomorrow. Still waiting for the K-12 schools to start making decisions for tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Good luck. Colleges in Central Nebraska already closing tomorrow, UNK and Hastings College closed Tuesday. My daughter goes to UNK in Kearney and will be coming home this afternoon. We are relieved that she wouldn't have to drive tomorrow. Still waiting for the K-12 schools to start making decisions for tomorrow.Awesome! And they will probably wait until 7 or 8 to make sure the forecast holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Euro favoring the cold air to get here sooner. Maybe there is some hope.RPM looked like it was all snow from OMA and points W/N. Riding the fine line I’d say! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I have relatives at deer camp near Baraga. Should be the best gun season bliz since 30 yrs ago! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Marquette MI340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019MIZ001-003>007-085-251645-/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.A.0006.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L`Anse,Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry, and Seney340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to16 inches. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, highest alongthe lakeshore.* WHERE...Portions of central Upper and western Upper Michigan.* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to near impossible attimes. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reducevisibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning andevening commutes and holiday travelers.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect greatly reduced visibility of a halfmile or less when the heavy snow arrives Wednesday morning.Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Prepare for possible blizzard conditions near the lakeshore. Ifyou must travel, keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle incase of an emergency. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts forupdates on this situation. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I have relatives at deer camp near Baraga. Should be the best gun season bliz since 30 yrs ago! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Marquette MI340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 MIZ001-003>007-085-251645-/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.A.0006.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, Hancock, L`Anse,Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry, and Seney340 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to16 inches. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, highest alongthe lakeshore. * WHERE...Portions of central Upper and western Upper Michigan. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to near impossible attimes. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reducevisibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning andevening commutes and holiday travelers. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect greatly reduced visibility of a halfmile or less when the heavy snow arrives Wednesday morning.Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions near the lakeshore. Ifyou must travel, keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle incase of an emergency. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts forupdates on this situation.Sweet! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12z CFS south and takes Low right over Kansas City. Shows heavy snow over east central Neb at 36hrs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 18z NAM goes sub 990mb now even before entering S IA. Convective elements showing up still in MN and WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 18z NAM goes sub 990mb now even before entering S IA. Convective elements showing up still in MN and WI.Surface conditions will be very hard to predict up until about this time tomorrow with those dynamics. Anywhere free here to your area has a chance at some real pound town stuff tomorrow night. Warnings should come with this cycle. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 18z NAM goes sub 990mb now even before entering S IA. Convective elements showing up still in MN and WI. 12z GEM has this at 980 mb south of your place! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I got a headline! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Surface conditions will be very hard to predict up until about this time tomorrow with those dynamics. Anywhere free here to your area has a chance at some real pound town stuff tomorrow night. Warnings should come with this cycle.Warnings issued now but their wording doesn’t match their numbers. NAM and 3km NAM now chucking a 12” touchdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12z GEM has this at 980 mb south of your place! It’s because MN and Canada have a strong bond. It’s showing us the love. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Awesome! And they will probably wait until 7 or 8 to make sure the forecast holds.Schools are now posting closings. About 15 so far in the Kearney area. Our school not on the list yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Hello Mr. Blizzard. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Hello Mr. Blizzard.Looking good...enjoy it! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 NO School here tomorrow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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