December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Looking forward to January already!

 

pretty sad but have to agree wrt the "winter". Had a busy day and thought I'd get back here tonight and maybe find good news about the pending storms. Instead everything that looked promising just last night has turned turd. All models are having issues with supposed wavy pattern. Best just to accept reality that this season wants to mimic last winter for those of us south and east. 

[snowstorm83]

I cannot believe how awful this pattern is. December's are literally almost always like this now. I don't get it.  At least my area got 1 storm before this crap settled in, but I'd trade that for something decent around Christmas. This is the best time a year for snow and it's almost always a snooze these days

There’s been some okay Decembers but most have been garbage. The most recent good one was 2009 and that’s a decade ago at this point lol. Not complaining too much since I’m usually out of town around Christmas but wouldn’t mind a good first half of the month for once.

[jaster220]

I cannot believe how awful this pattern is. December's are literally almost always like this now. I don't get it.  At least my area got 1 storm before this crap settled in, but I'd trade that for something decent around Christmas. This is the best time a year for snow and it's almost always a snooze these days

 

Over here the Dec's for the past decade have been totally bi-polar, hyper active or total zeroes. It's beyond ridiculous really.

[jaster220]

No Tom = No Good

 

Whatever signs and signals were pointing at winter returning were apparently yet another "false flag". Seems to be zero drivers to get cold air into the CONUS besides parting shots. Without that cold, the storms just won't be happening in any wintry fashion. And 2nd half of Dec's not looking any better..

 

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Dec 06 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Dec 21 2019-Fri Jan 03 2020

The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks are based on the evolving circulation pattern from Week-2, dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, and SubX multi-model ensemble. Long-term trends and anomalous snow cover were also considered. ENSO-neutral conditions continue across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened during late November with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remaining dominant. Although some dynamical models indicate that the MJO resumes eastward propagation during the next two weeks, its amplitude is likely to be reduced by destructive interference with the positive IOD.

Poor consistency and agreement has plagued the dynamical models during a transition from a negative to positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index during the past week. However, the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means have converged on the 500-hPa pattern during Week-2 with a weaker ridge over western North America. Although there is likely to be an outbreak of Arctic air across the north-central U.S. during the second week of December, the anomalously cold temperatures are expected to be short-lived without the persistence of a full latitude ridge upstream. During Week-3, the CFS model maintains a highly amplified ridge along the West Coast which seems to be the least likely outcome based on the evolving pattern later in Week-2. It appears that the CFS model is slower with a pattern change as its predicted 500-hPa height pattern eventually converges to the ECMWF and JMA models during Week-4. The ECMWF and JMA models are in good agreement that an upper-level trough develops over the West during Week-3 with an increase in 500-hPa heights along the East Coast. The members of the SubX multi-model ensemble feature a wide range of solutions which leads to only small 500-hPa height anomalies throughout the CONUS. However, at higher latitudes, the SubX multi-model ensemble mean is most similar to the JMA with large 500-hPa positive (negative) anomalies over mainland Alaska (eastern Canada). Also, there are hints of an upper-level trough extending into the Rockies. If there is any influence on the mid-latitude circulation pattern from the MJO, it would tend to favor the 500-hPa height pattern represented by the ECMWF and JMA models.

Above-normal temperatures are favored for much of the CONUS due to the most likely trough/ridge pattern and temperature tools from the ECMWF and JMA models, the evolving longwave pattern during the latter half of December, and any forcing from the MJO. Due to uncertainty on how quickly 500-hPa heights increase along the East Coast, only a slight tilt in the odds for above normal temperatures is forecast across the Southeast which tapers to equal chances for New England. Based on the expectation that an upper-level trough digs into the West later in Week-2, anomalous snow cover, and MJO considerations, equal chances in above or below normal temperatures are also forecast across the Great Basin, desert Southwest, and parts of California.

[CentralNebWeather]

No Tom = No Good

 

Whatever signs and signals were pointing at winter returning were apparently yet another "false flag". Seems to be zero drivers to get cold air into the CONUS besides parting shots. Without that cold, the storms just won't be happening in any wintry fashion. And 2nd half of Dec's not looking any better..

 

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300PM EST Fri Dec 06 2019

 

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Dec 21 2019-Fri Jan 03 2020

 

The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks are based on the evolving circulation pattern from Week-2, dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, and SubX multi-model ensemble. Long-term trends and anomalous snow cover were also considered. ENSO-neutral conditions continue across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened during late November with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remaining dominant. Although some dynamical models indicate that the MJO resumes eastward propagation during the next two weeks, its amplitude is likely to be reduced by destructive interference with the positive IOD.

 

Poor consistency and agreement has plagued the dynamical models during a transition from a negative to positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index during the past week. However, the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means have converged on the 500-hPa pattern during Week-2 with a weaker ridge over western North America. Although there is likely to be an outbreak of Arctic air across the north-central U.S. during the second week of December, the anomalously cold temperatures are expected to be short-lived without the persistence of a full latitude ridge upstream. During Week-3, the CFS model maintains a highly amplified ridge along the West Coast which seems to be the least likely outcome based on the evolving pattern later in Week-2. It appears that the CFS model is slower with a pattern change as its predicted 500-hPa height pattern eventually converges to the ECMWF and JMA models during Week-4. The ECMWF and JMA models are in good agreement that an upper-level trough develops over the West during Week-3 with an increase in 500-hPa heights along the East Coast. The members of the SubX multi-model ensemble feature a wide range of solutions which leads to only small 500-hPa height anomalies throughout the CONUS. However, at higher latitudes, the SubX multi-model ensemble mean is most similar to the JMA with large 500-hPa positive (negative) anomalies over mainland Alaska (eastern Canada). Also, there are hints of an upper-level trough extending into the Rockies. If there is any influence on the mid-latitude circulation pattern from the MJO, it would tend to favor the 500-hPa height pattern represented by the ECMWF and JMA models.

 

Above-normal temperatures are favored for much of the CONUS due to the most likely trough/ridge pattern and temperature tools from the ECMWF and JMA models, the evolving longwave pattern during the latter half of December, and any forcing from the MJO. Due to uncertainty on how quickly 500-hPa heights increase along the East Coast, only a slight tilt in the odds for above normal temperatures is forecast across the Southeast which tapers to equal chances for New England. Based on the expectation that an upper-level trough digs into the West later in Week-2, anomalous snow cover, and MJO considerations, equal chances in above or below normal temperatures are also forecast across the Great Basin, desert Southwest, and parts of California.

Not looking good. Our snow is basically all gone except for piles and drifts on the north side of houses and buildings.

[Mi_Matthew]

So our hopes are riding with the CFS? Bummer.

[Niko]

Wanna say that today felt like early Spring outside. Had that feeling to it, even though temps were at near average or slightly below. High reached 34F w abundant sunshine. Tomorrows high 45-50F. Just amazing for this time of the year w sunshine to go along w it.

[Niko]

Euro still sees the storm from the GOM up the APP Mountains for end of next week, but no good, if there is no cold air to supply to it. As a matter a fact, temps look warmer than what was being advertised earlier this week. The pattern is just not good.

 

The EC has a chance for some wintry weather possibly by midweek.

[Niko]

I agree that this pattern is really boring, but I’m enjoying it nonetheless. It appears like the next several weeks will be quite a bit dryer than normal Had very nice mild temps to be doing things outdoors the last while and the lawns still are fairly green!

Here too. My grass has this deep, green color still. Unreal!

 

[Niko]

It’s trash with storms over 4-5 days out. Does okay showing a pattern, but overdoes everything the further out you get. Even the ensembles. How many times does it show extreme cold only to be pushed backed weeks at a time?

I never look beyond 2 days in my forecast tbh. I.E., my local weatherman each nite has a different forecast.   

[Niko]

The 12z Euro is a perfect example of what I was talking about yesterday in regards to the east coast. The surface low tracks off the coast on this run and it still rains in the big cities. The other surface low farther west screws them. And it's not a traditional miller b setup where a coastal takes over and the cold collapses toward the coast.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Fwiw, the GFS gives the NYC area a few inches of snow on Wednesday.

 

[Clinton]

Euro still sees the storm from the GOM up the APP Mountains for end of next week, but no good, if there is no cold air to supply to it. As a matter a fact, temps look warmer than what was being advertised earlier this week. The pattern is just not good.

 

The EC has a chance for some wintry weather possibly by midweek.

It's just a terrible time for a +AO and NAO, I just keep hoping they will get back to neutral or go negative.

[Niko]

Okla/Tx could text this in with one word. Boring.

A sad 40% chance of rain with what they are calling a "cold front" on Tuesday.

Otherwise, it's a yawner!

Yep..not looking too impressive.

 

[Niko]

It's just a terrible time for a +AO and NAO, I just keep hoping they will get back to neutral or go negative.

Exactly.....I think, that January and February will be better Winter months. Thats when AO n NAO look to go -.

 

Hopefully, we can squeeze out a snowstorm this December, especially, for our peeps that have not seen any snow yet.

 

[Madtown]

depressed...going to try and fill the rink tomorrow, but not liking the outlook.

[Clinton]

Exactly.....I think, that January and February will be better Winter months. Thats when AO n NAO look to go -.

 

Hopefully, we can squeeze out a snowstorm this December, especially, for our peeps that have not seen any snow yet.

 

Well lets not throw in the towel on Dec yet, it is only the 7th.  Still a long ways to go.

[Niko]

Well lets not throw in the towel on Dec yet, it is only the 7th.  Still a long ways to go.

I hope yr right amigo. Let that Christmas miracle to its thang!

 

[Hoosier]

Fwiw, the GFS gives the NYC area a few inches of snow on Wednesday.

 

Indeed. I have not been commenting on that system. Just the one after.

[Madtown]

Been an ok noght... here's to December.

[Tom]

I was busy for most of the day yesterday working with a friend of mine and then I ended up finally starting to put up my Christmas decor outside. It wasn't a bad day overall with the clouds around for most of the day. I'll prob end up finishing putting up with my lights today and also put up my Christmas tree today. In a way, I don't mind having to miss the coming snow system up north because that'll give me more time to consider buying more Christmas lights this week... Gotta look at the glass half full in a snow-less pattern...

 

@ Clinton, your right about the teleoconnections screwing up what could have been a great pattern this coming week. What really threw me off was the sky high +NAO. There is enough of a block near the Archipelago/Arctic region to displace the Vortex far enough south to seed cold into the lower 48 but it almost seems like its hugging the northern tier of our Sub where the Glacier has been built.

 

 

The 00z EPS Day 6-10 500mb Hemispheric pattern does not at all have a bad look to it...notice the big block over the Pole...we just need the models to start sniffing out the west-based Greenland block that should start showing up in the pattern by mid month and I'm almost certain right around the Winter Solstice period. Based on how the 10mb/30mb warming has evolved since late November along with the lag period I expect to see the models to start "seeing" more high lat blocking in the pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After looking into the modeling farther, looks like they are starting to show more Arctic blocking in the longer range...this does fit the idea I mentioned above ^...

 

 

 

 

 

 

It now appears very likely this month will end up being very volatile. 2nd half rally??? I'm still a big believer in a pattern change to more sustained cold following next weekend and heading through the holidays. Several long range indicators suggest so and I'm also banking on the blocking to unfold. I'll finish this post by showing these maps which should provide some promise of a "Cross Polar Flow" heading towards the holidays....

 

Hello Winter Solstice...

 

 

 

 

Christmas Eve....Dec '83 ring a bell???? Siberian Express could very well Impress...let's see if the blocking takes hold late month....

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Great analysis Tom, and I believe you will be right.  There are so many good storms in this pattern and all it will take is a little artic air and blocking to hit the ignite button.  Last nights EC is a perfect example, showing an active pattern and a little snow for most of us.  But just waiting for a little help to go bigly.

 

[Clinton]

Last nights EPS mean doesn't look to bad when you consider that it's ONLY DEC 8TH!  It did take a step colder and snowier lets see how it trends.  

[jaster220]

Thanks Tom. Can always count on you to keep it sunny  .  I too finished my outside decor and was hoping to get "buried" with some storms as you had originally alluded to. Had my hopes up their bud, but I know you're just doing the best you can to read the tea leafs. What's funny is that until yesterday's runs, the models were looking better and better for said bury job. I mean, LOOK at this GFS snowfall map for the SMI Peeps :

 

  

 

 

Needless to say, I was Dreaming of a (very) White Christmas season    

 

We know that eventually winter will find it's way back, even if it takes half of Met winter to do so like last year and 06-07 for example. As I posted before, my ideal scenario is to be tracking storminess right during my break for Christmas and NY. So if we can squeak out a few ground whitenings leading up to an awesome ending that would work for me personally. 

 

Otherwise, I'm doing similar holiday prep as yourself and trying to enjoy every minute of it!  

 

 

[jaster220]

Last nights EPS mean doesn't look to bad when you consider that it's ONLY DEC 8TH!  It did take a step colder and snowier lets see how it trends.  

 

Thx Clinton, for the record it got less snowy over SWMI where it had been into the purples (6+) range. But, as I just posted above if we end up with a more typical scenario pre-Christmas week it'll be ok. I think that's kinda what it shows imho. Mby may end up doing a bit better than it has since I doubt it picks up LES contributions as a LR product. (Nvrmd I see the higher amts down wind of Erie and Lake Ontario, so it does include LES to a degree)

[Tom]

Thanks Tom. Can always count on you to keep it sunny . I too finished my outside decor and was hoping to get "buried" with some storms as you had originally alluded to. Had my hopes up their bud, but I know you're just doing the best you can to read the tea leafs. What's funny is that until yesterday's runs, the models were looking better and better for said bury job. I mean, LOOK at this GFS snowfall map for the SMI Peeps :

 

20191207 0z GFS h384 SLR Snowfall.png

 

 

Needless to say, I was Dreaming of a (very) White Christmas season

 

We know that eventually winter will find it's way back, even if it takes half of Met winter to do so like last year and 06-07 for example. As I posted before, my ideal scenario is to be tracking storminess right during my break for Christmas and NY. So if we can squeak out a few ground whitenings leading up to an awesome ending that would work for me personally.

 

Otherwise, I'm doing similar holiday prep as yourself and trying to enjoy every minute of it!

I’m still not writing off the late weekend system to see if we can score some lighter wrap around snows from the N stream wave that tracks thru the GL’s and eventually phases with the Gulf low. If the southern Gulf Low can somehow phase just a little bit earlier it can throw more moisture into the system. You may be in a better position than us farther west.

[Tom]

Great analysis Tom, and I believe you will be right. There are so many good storms in this pattern and all it will take is a little artic air and blocking to hit the ignite button. Last nights EC is a perfect example, showing an active pattern and a little snow for most of us. But just waiting for a little help to go bigly.

 

We just need the NAO to relax or even go slightly (-) and a lot of us will be in business. I think it’s coming.

[Clinton]

Thx Clinton, for the record it got less snowy over SWMI where it had been into the purples (6+) range. But, as I just posted above if we end up with a more typical scenario pre-Christmas week it'll be ok. I think that's kinda what it shows imho. Mby may end up doing a bit better than it has since I doubt it picks up LES contributions as a LR product. (Nvrmd I see the higher amts down wind of Erie and Lake Ontario, so it does include LES to a degree)

I would like to see more cold air stay around for the gulf system.  I was hoping that it would really produce for you, we still have some time so maybe it will trend colder. 

[westMJim]

With 7 days of December 2019 now in the record book Grand Rapids has a mean temperature of 32.0° that is a departure of -0.8°. The highest so far this month is 40° and the lowest so far is 21° As is typical in December there has been very little sunshine. So far there has been 3.6” of snow fall with the most on the ground being 3” At this time here at my house it is of course cloudy and 36° and at this time there is just left-over snow piles on the ground but there is snow on many of the roofs. The expected rain should melt off most of roof snow but some of the snow piles should remain.

[Tom]

Its rather interesting how good the JMA weeklies have been forecasting the MJO.  They whooped the Euro/GFS for Week 2 as now the Euro has completely got rid of the Phase 3 rotation.  It basically stalls out in Phase 2 and into the "null" phase.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

The JMA is suggesting a trend towards Phase 1...

 

 

 

While the CFSv2 looks like the Euro...

 

[Niko]

Today will be a springlike day w temps well into the 40s, if not 50F or better. Clouds will be on the increase though w a lot of rain on the way.

[Niko]

Thanks Tom. Can always count on you to keep it sunny  .  I too finished my outside decor and was hoping to get "buried" with some storms as you had originally alluded to. Had my hopes up their bud, but I know you're just doing the best you can to read the tea leafs. What's funny is that until yesterday's runs, the models were looking better and better for said bury job. I mean, LOOK at this GFS snowfall map for the SMI Peeps :

 

20191207 0z GFS h384 SLR Snowfall.png  

 

 

Needless to say, I was Dreaming of a (very) White Christmas season    

 

We know that eventually winter will find it's way back, even if it takes half of Met winter to do so like last year and 06-07 for example. As I posted before, my ideal scenario is to be tracking storminess right during my break for Christmas and NY. So if we can squeak out a few ground whitenings leading up to an awesome ending that would work for me personally. 

 

Otherwise, I'm doing similar holiday prep as yourself and trying to enjoy every minute of it!  

[Niko]

EC (NYC Metro Area) will have to watch Tuesday nite into Wed morning for snowfall accumulations. NAM is on board as well w a few inches. Inland areas could score 6-8". Anyone traveling next week, keep an eye on the weather there.

[Niko]

Attm, 35F under partly cloudy skies.

[Hawkeye]

The midweek cold is no longer looking like a big deal.  The NWS now only has us in the low 20s Tues/Wed, which is pretty tame.  We were a lot colder than that a month ago.

[jaster220]

If one looks long enough you can always find some weenie run by one of the models 

 

[Clinton]

GFS has the perfect track for Mich folks in reguards to the Gulf low.  Now we just need the cold air to do it's thing, keep your fingers crossed.

[Clinton]

Nothing real dynamic about my storm but I will certainly take it.  Also looks like a colder trend so far today but we shall see.

[Tom]

GFS has the perfect track for Mich folks in reguards to the Gulf low.  Now we just need the cold air to do it's thing, keep your fingers crossed.

In my notes, if you look back at how the ULL tracked through N NM/N TX/OK/MO/IL...today's 12z GFS run did almost exactly that!  Pretty incredible to see a model run flash almost an identical result.

[Clinton]

In my notes, if you look back at how the ULL tracked through N NM/N TX/OK/MO/IL...today's 12z GFS run did almost exactly that!  Pretty incredible to see a model run flash almost an identical result.

It's perfect!  And big time cold and blocking showing up toward Christmas week!

[Hawkeye]

The GFS has several systems moving across the country later in the month that could produce snow.  The details just flop wildly from run to run.