December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

GFS looking better for the Sunday storm. No idea why I'm looking at this when its a week out. I'm just desperate for something before I leave for 10 days on the 18th. 

[Niko]

Attm, it is raining and a bamly 44F.

[Niko]

I spent most of my day yesterday outside putting up my Christmas lights and some decor while the rest of my neighborhood seemed like they were in a frenzy themselves!  I took a trip to Home Depot & Menard's and they were jam packed!  Everyone was out and about making their runs and picking out fresh Christmas trees, lights and decor.  I certainly felt the "Holiday vibe" yesterday.  All we need now is some cold air and snow....

I know what ya mean. I went to Home Depot yesterday also and it was jamming. Couldn't walk from all of those people there shopping and definitely had that Holiday vibe going, especially w the Christmas songs playing.

 

Now, can we get that GOM Low cranking up by next weekend or what! I like what I am seeing thus far today on the models.........

[Tom]

 

I know what ya mean. I went to Home Depot yesterday also and it was jamming. Couldn't walk from all of those people there shopping and definitely had that Holiday vibe going, especially w the Christmas songs playing.

 

Now, can we get that GOM Low cranking up by next weekend or what! I like what I am seeing thus far today on the models.........

If we don't score on the GOM low, then we have our next opportunity which would be the "Halloween" storm back in late October which was a very juicy storm and hit our region pretty good. Last night's 00z Euro took an almost identical track. Just hope this storm trends the right way this time. One of the positives during this period is the relaxation of the sky high NAO which will help aid better storm development.

[Andie]

#SolarMin is making it's mark and quite possibly could set a Space Age record this week....

Impressive run. This next Solar Cycle predicted to be like a deflated balloon. Fewer spots than this last one.

Interesting times, folks.

[jaster220]

00z Euro...lock it in!  This would put a smile on a lot of peoples faces...

 

 

 

 

 

This would put a smile on a lot of peoples faces...

 

Uhmm, like you and the million wx weenies in and around Chicagoland who would be ground zero for the jack-zone! Lake finally gonna be your friend??  And those are LR totals. Hey, it's under 240, lock it! 

[Niko]

It feels so nice outside, even though its raining. Temp at 44F.

[Andie]

Hard to believe they're talking snow tomorrow. Nothing to get excited about and our ground is much too warm, but we may see some flakes tomorrow as the front pushes through the DFW area. Big change on the way.

[Madtown]

@ Tom......you see any cold coming next week?

[bud2380]

Euro finally giving reason for optimism.  I'm sure it will pull a Lucy on us as we get closer, but right now showing a couple inches for parts of Iowa on Saturday, before the bigger storm Sunday night into Monday.  Would be nice to at least have something to track.  

[Clinton]

Please lock this in

[GDR]

For heaven sakes no please!

[Tom]

@ Tom......you see any cold coming next week?

You mean cold enough for your ice rink???  Yes, I would probably start filling it up.  How long does it take to fill up?

[bud2380]

ICON coming in along I80, GFS along I70.  Canadian and Euro also further north than the GFS.  

 

 

[bud2380]

Canadian weakens significantly as it treks east, which is why NE gets hit hard, but Iowa not as much.  BUt the bottom line is a legit storm is appearing on all the globals for late next weekend into early next week.  

 

[bud2380]

GEFS ensembles are all over the place as you would expect.  

 

[Bryan1117]

ICON coming in along I80, GFS along I70.  Canadian and Euro also further north than the GFS.  

 

 

Okay, lock that one in now for us in Eastern Nebraska LOL!

[Hawkeye]

GEFS ensembles are all over the place as you would expect.  

 

 

#13 is the correct one.

[jaster220]

GEFS ensembles are all over the place as you would expect.  

 

 

#19 sure spreads the wealth  .  13's my lucky number, but NOT according to that run 

[Stacsh]

Only 8 days out!  At least there is some consistency.  EURO and ICON is almost Identical.  

[Clinton]

Here is a look at the Halloween version of this storm.  Typically in cycle 2 the low tracks further south, I would expect the low  to be closer to southern MO this time.

 

[james1976]

Lock in that ICON! Dang that would be awesome.

[jaster220]

Only 8 days out!  At least there is some consistency.  EURO and ICON is almost Identical.  

 

This has a shot but I sure don't like the looks of being on the southern edge already. Especially with fighting early season warmth issues. Nightmares of last Nov 26th and the whole Feb storm bust train running rampant in my head. 

[MIKEKC]

Here is a look at the Halloween version of this storm. Typically in cycle 2 the low tracks further south, I would expect the low to be closer to southern MO this time.

 

[james1976]

Here is a look at the Halloween version of this storm. Typically in cycle 2 the low tracks further south, I would expect the low to be closer to southern MO this time.

 

Yeah very possible. We'll have to see how the teleconnections play out.

[MIKEKC]

Clinton, Gary is saying that the 48 day cycle you suggest is not even close....

 

Not sure what he thinks it is though

[Niko]

The ensembles are not that bad. Hopefully, they get better for mby.

[westMJim]

 Here is some non weather information on a wet December day. Today is the earliest sunset of the year 5:07 pm in Grand Rapids. The sun rose at 8:01 am (I know it was cloudy and you missed it) that gives GR 9 hours and 6 minutes 10 seconds of daylight. December 21^st has the shortest time between sun rise/sunset (8:10 am/5:10 pm) with 9 hours 0 minutes and 31 seconds.

At this time it is cloudy with light rain and 47 here at my house.

[Clinton]

Clinton, Gary is saying that the 48 day cycle you suggest is not even close....

 

Not sure what he thinks it is though

I know and until he chooses to provide evidence that it's not I'm sticking with 48..  It may also be why he hadn't spoke of this storm until today....

[MIKEKC]

I agree Clinton...I see what storm you are comparing the upcoming weekend storm to, it makes sense to me.

 

However, the only reason I would disagree with a 48 day cycle is the fact that the SW part of the country went 50 plus days with absolutely nothing to start the new LRC and then got blasted for two straight weeks following that..he might be in the 60’s on cycle length??

[CentralNebWeather]

ICON coming in along I80, GFS along I70.  Canadian and Euro also further north than the GFS.  

 

 

Yes please.  This would be an awesome pre Christmas present.

[bud2380]

Euro trending strong for the Friday night/Saturday system in NE and IA as well, although it's now warmer in Iowa and brings more rain than snow for portions of the state.

 

[GDR]

 

Here is a look at the Halloween version of this storm. Typically in cycle 2 the low tracks further south, I would expect the low to be closer to southern MO this time.

 

I remember this one

[Madtown]

You mean cold enough for your ice rink??? Yes, I would probably start filling it up. How long does it take to fill up?

6500 Gallons since yesterday.....hope to get 2-3in of ice by Thurs!

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro is suppressed and very weak with the storm a week out... very different from last night's run.

[Hawkeye]

It was 41º a couple hours ago.  Now, it's 23º.

[jaster220]

12z Euro is suppressed and very weak with the storm a week out... very different from last night's run.

 

  gotta love it! 

[bud2380]

Yep. Euro sucks. Total flip flop. Yuck.

[Niko]

Attm, 46F w light rain.

[Niko]

Impressive snowsquall showing......I-80 West closed due to a car pile-up in the Des Moines area.