December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

EC much more bullish on the storm next week compared to the operational.

 

[Niko]

EC much more bullish on the storm next week compared to the operational.

 

Yep...I agree.

[Clinton]

EC snowfall 

[jaster220]

..and in the LLR wish-casting thread, I present yet another holiday fantasy run via the GFS (Good Fantasy Storms)

 

Christmas Eve & Day 2019

 

[jaster220]

EC snowfall 

 

  So, is that the regular Euro, Euro Control, or the Euro ENS? 

[Stormhunter87]

..and in the LLR wish-casting thread, I present yet another holiday fantasy run via the GFS (Good Fantasy Storms)

 

Christmas Eve & Day 2019

 

20191209 gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_fh354-384.gif

Eww if that happens I have drive through all of that.

[Clinton]

  So, is that the regular Euro, Euro Control, or the Euro ENS? 

Control

[Niko]

Eww if that happens I have drive through all of that.

 

[Clinton]

EPS mean for next weeks system

 

[Clinton]

EPS mean into Christmas Eve.

 

[bud2380]

Wouldn’t surprise me if the Euro came back on board with this one. It’s still a week out so certainly models are gonna fluctuate from run to run

[jaster220]

Wouldn’t surprise me if the Euro came back on board with this one. It’s still a week out so certainly models are gonna fluctuate from run to run

 

My concern AGAIN revolves around a lack of cold. Tom (and others tbh) think they can see some improvements starting after the 15th. But for the moment, this feels a whole lot like a continuation of last winter's regime. 

[jaster220]

EPS mean for next weeks system

 

 

Interesting. So the Ensembles have it quite a bit south of today's Control (and last night's OP). Hopefully the other models don't totally lose it and we're down to just one model showing a potential. 

[Niko]

My concern AGAIN revolves around a lack of cold. Tom (and others tbh) think they can see some improvements starting after the 15th. But for the moment, this feels a whole lot like a continuation of last winter's regime. 

Yep...i.e., my highs after this brief arctic airmass rebound to 40F by Saturday and then at NN or slightly BN. No biggie! We just need to lock in a real cold airmass.

[Niko]

At 50F under cloudy skies. Dang, its a mild day today.

[Niko]

EPS mean for next weeks system

 

I'll take it. Gives me 2"+. You score as well bud.

[bud2380]

How desperate are we for snow?  The 3k NAM is showing the possibility of an approximately 2 county wide swath of snow tomorrow night, right through Cedar Rapids.  Ha ha.  Maybe we squeak out an inch in these parts.  

 

 

[bud2380]

GFS on board as well.  ha ha.  

 

[james1976]

Haha we'll take what we can get! DMX says something minor for Thursday as well.

[Andie]

Front moving through. Currently 47*.

Low of 36*. Expecting ~.75” rain.

 

Meh, ...at least it’s rain.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings mentioning chances of snow Saturday night to Monday morning. No amounts or specifics. We’ll have to see if this verifies.

[jaster220]

WPC has a little snow for Tom Wed? 

 

 

[Niko]

Still 50F even at this hour. Some light rainshowers  changing to a few snowshowers by morning. Lows dropping in the upper 20s.

[Niko]

Hopefully, tomorrow mby sees intense squalls which could add up to an inch, maybe a little better, especially in the morning hours.

[jaster220]

Arctic Front coming thru with gusts 35-40 mph. Surprised not more was made of this short wind event by my office. Oh wait, yeah, they down played it since it was only a 6 hr period. 

[BrianJK]

16th consecutive day at or above normal in Chicago. Looks like 2 days below coming up before returning back to normal or above.

[jaster220]

Grid has the next 3 days below freezing. This will be the first sub-32F days since the historic cold wave a month ago. Surprisingly, we still have a few old parking lot piles continuing to melt from Vet's Day. 

[Niko]

16th consecutive day at or above normal in Chicago. Looks like 2 days below coming up before returning back to normal or above.

I know, it seems like Arctic air thus far this Met Winter does not want to hang around too long.....except for that November cold outbreak, which was pretty decent.

[Niko]

Grid has the next 3 days below freezing. This will be the first sub-32F days since the historic cold wave a month ago. Surprisingly, we still have a few old parking lot piles continuing to melt from Vet's Day. 

  Same here...they are still around in pkg-lots, here n there. They look disgusting though, wish they would just melt already.

[St Paul Storm]

Already down to 2F with a wind chill of -16. Heading down to -2F tonight and a high tomorrow of only 3F. We may flirt with 32 on Friday, otherwise we are safely below freezing for at least the next 7 days.

[Niko]

I am getting some really strong wind gusts. Some 25mph gusts have been reported. Looks like the arctic front is approaching.

[jaster220]

  so they mention the winds in an AFD update, but say that they only highlighted it in the HWO. Huh? Who even looks at the HWO, let alone for an ongoing threat? Seriously? 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Strong wind gusts this evening are capable of producing scattered
power outages. Most locations will gust in the 30 to 40 mph
range...but locally higher values are expected. The wind will
diminish slowly after midnight. We did increase the winds in the
forecast as a result and updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Temperatures will be falling below freezing mainly midnight and
beyond. A band of snow has been advertised by some of the High Res
Models around the transition to freezing time. So some slick spots
will be possible...again mainly after midnight.

 

 

[GDR]

The icon looks interesting

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS - Saturday morning

 

[jaster220]

The icon looks interesting

 

GFS also, for Iowa. NAM out to 84 hrs looks like it wants to revive the Gulf Low for E OHV..

[jaster220]

The icon looks interesting

 

[Niko]

GFS also, for Iowa. NAM out to 84 hrs looks like it wants to revive the Gulf Low for E OHV.

That GOM Low bears watching. I suspect surprises by mid to late week.

[Niko]

20191210 0z ICON h165.png

That looks beautiful.

[jaster220]

ICON following last night's Euro run..

 

[jaster220]

That looks beautiful.

 

At that time-stamp it sure does. Then it lifts north over our heads with RAIN!    (betta than nada we've got til now tho)