December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS

 

[Clinton]

Your welcome...we also have the LRC in our back pocket and the fact that the storm will be tracking through the seasons Long Term Long Wave Trough....

So we know it should intensify as it moves east.

[Tom]

So we know it should intensify as it moves east.

What a difference a little blocking up near Greenland can do to the pattern...I commented early on in the season that when the west-based Greenland block would develop in the Winter it would rock for our Sub...

 

 

[james1976]

Nice returns showing up by Sioux Falls. I'm tempted to get up during the night to see if its snowing much.

[Hawkeye]

The UK is suppressed far to the south next Monday.

[Mi_Matthew]

The UK is suppressed far to the south next Monday.

 

The UK also made a big shift west with moisture from the gulf low this weekend. 

 

Anyone have access to UK snow maps? All I can see is QPF. It does spit out 0.6"+ of something in Niko and I's backyards though.

[Stormhunter87]

What part of Neb is Papillon in?

Just south of the Omaha metro.

[Tom]

Last nights 00z Euro took a big step back towards its original solution but farther South.  Needless to say, looks like we have something to track over the rest of this week.  It seems like the Euro's bias of over exaggerating blocking is coming to fruition as this storm is trending NW now.  Most models, if not all, are latching onto to the blocking and a slower storm system.

 

[Tom]

Fired up a storm thread for early next weeks Plains/OHV cutter...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2138-1215-1218-plainsohv-major-cutter/

[Tom]

Later on today, I'll put in some time and provide my insight on some LR thoughts and let me tell you, I'm fired up where this pattern is heading and it starts early next week!  

[Grizzcoat]

Last few days of the EURO and into it's control run (days 11-15) is a downright yawner and near torch for many-- especially outside the snowpack.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2019121100&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2019121100&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Tom]

Last few days of the EURO and into it's control run (days 11-15) is a downright yawner and near torch for many-- especially outside the snowpack.

Don't buy it one bit...the amount of blocking now showing up in the models and the warming on going in the Strat suggests the opposite.  We are in for an interesting period of winter weather.

[Clinton]

GFS mean is beautiful!

[Clinton]

Don't buy it one bit...the amount of blocking now showing up in the models and the warming on going in the Strat suggests the opposite.  We are in for an interesting period of winter weather.

No torch coming anytime soon.  Nobody in this part of the pattern has any long duration warm up.

[Grizzcoat]

Don't buy it one bit...the amount of blocking now showing up in the models and the warming on going in the Strat suggests the opposite.  We are in for an interesting period of winter weather.

I hope your correct!!! Just showing others what the long range Euro is showing - it also agrees with it's own weeklies to an extent.

[Tom]

I hope your correct!!! Just showing others what the long range Euro is showing - it also agrees with it's own weeklies to an extent.

For sure Grizz, it's always good to acknowledge the Euro's LR forecast.  I was just making a point that the models are now "correcting" to their "own" ideas of high lat blocking which I believe without a doubt now its coming.  The 10mb/30mb strat warming LR tools I use are going to be rock solid.

[bud2380]

Looks like a little over an inch fell overnight here. Too bad it all happened while I was asleep.

[james1976]

Nice surprise here! Measured 2.2" of snow on my patio table. I knew this system had a shot at over performing. I woke up about 3am and looked out and it was coming down nicely. Fat flakes. Got up at 5 for work and it was just winding down. Measurement was at about 5:30. The interesting thing is the radar was only showing very light returns over my area at 3am when it was coming down pretty heavy and there were heavier returns to my SE. I wonder what areas received down there. Saw a few plows out on my way in to work and it sure adds to the holiday spirit seeing lights and decor glowing under the snow! This is my largest snowfall of the season so far.

[james1976]

Looks like a little over an inch fell overnight here. Too bad it all happened while I was asleep.

Surprised you didn't get more. Looked like you had some nice returns down there.

[St Paul Storm]

Nice surprise here! Measured 2.2" of snow on my patio table. I knew this system had a shot at over performing. I woke up about 3am and looked out and it was coming down nicely. Fat flakes. Got up at 5 for work and it was just winding down. Measurement was at about 5:30. The interesting thing is the radar was only showing very light returns over my area at 3am when it was coming down pretty heavy and there were heavier returns to my SE. I wonder what areas received down there. Saw a few plows out on my way in to work and it sure adds to the holiday spirit seeing lights and decor glowing under the snow! This is my largest snowfall of the season so far.

Congrats on the overachiever! Always nice to score those once in a while.

[james1976]

Waterloo with officially 2.1" overnight

[St Paul Storm]

1-4” of snow expected overnight into tomorrow morning from the TC and north. Another miserable morning commute on tap for tomorrow.

 

Meanwhile it only got down to -7F last night at my house. A bit warmer than forecasted.

[Stormy]

Surprised you didn't get more. Looked like you had some nice returns down there.

Returns were decent here as well, but just eyeballing the snow it looks like only around 1/2” of fluff. Hardly worth mentioning as it will melt fast if it thaws, and I’m guessing maybe a hundredth or two of liquid.

[westMJim]

Congrats to anyone in Iowa who tapped into last nights snow fall.  Here in Grand Rapids the official snow fall for yesterday was 2" and with 0.19" of precp. Grand Rapids is now at 48.79" for the year just 0.01" below the record of 48.80" set in 2008. Here at my house at this time I have a temperature of 18 and there is 2" of snow on the ground. 

[Minny_Weather]

Back home (again). The cold was definitely a shock when I came in last night. 19.6*F.

[Niko]

A few isolated snowshowers around, otherwise mostly cloudy and chilly w temps at 17F.

[Niko]

The UK also made a big shift west with moisture from the gulf low this weekend. 

 

Anyone have access to UK snow maps? All I can see is QPF. It does spit out 0.6"+ of something in Niko and I's backyards though.

Yep..pretty decent run. I'll accept that!

[Hawkeye]

1.3" in my yard.  It would be nice if one of these events would pass through during daylight.  Other than the snow squall a few days ago, everything has been at night.

 

I woke up at 4:30 and it looked like the best snow was going around Cedar Rapids, especially south.  However, the reports so far show a general 1-2" band through the area.  Some places got more than me, but no big deal with a little event like this.

[Stormy]

Here is the latest from Terry Swailes. I like his non-biased approach to the model mayhem. He loves cold and snow, but doesn’t look mainly for what he’s hoping/wishing would transpire. Back in November he thought the MJO wasn’t influencing our weather as much as the EPO, but today he didn’t mention the EPO.

 

https://www.tswails.com/terry-s-blog

[westMJim]

Congrats to anyone in Iowa who tapped into last nights snow fall.  Here in Grand Rapids the official snow fall for yesterday was 2" and with 0.19" of precp. Grand Rapids is now at 48.79" for the year just 0.01" below the record of 48.80" set in 2008. Here at my house at this time I have a temperature of 18 and there is 2" of snow on the ground. 

That 48.80" is for total precipitation not total snow fall. Just wanted to make that clear.

[Hawkeye]

My liquid total this morning is 0.05", so the ratio is 26 to 1.

[Niko]

Looks like a big batch of snow to my west. Temp currently at 21F.

 

Jaster---

Looks like you are getting some white powda from these streamers.

[jaster220]

Last nights 00z Euro took a big step back towards its original solution but farther South.  Needless to say, looks like we have something to track over the rest of this week.  It seems like the Euro's bias of over exaggerating blocking is coming to fruition as this storm is trending NW now.  Most models, if not all, are latching onto to the blocking and a slower storm system.

 

 

Well, with the GFS a rainer here, I'm glad to see the Euro south. If all goes right, they meet in the middle and all are happy campers! 

[jaster220]

Looks like a big batch of snow to my west. Temp currently at 21F.

 

Jaster---

Looks like you are getting some white powda from these streamers.

 

I'm at work in Jackson, not sure if I see anything falling here or not tbh. Your back yard has a headline for SNOW amigo! 

[hlcater]

Measured 1.6” in Iowa City and family measured 1.2” in Hiawatha. Whitened everything up a bit

[bud2380]

we had an inch and a half in NL.  

[Niko]

I'm at work in Jackson, not sure if I see anything falling here or not tbh. Your back yard has a headline for SNOW amigo! 

Yes sir it does.......

TWC:

CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR RAPID REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITIES AND MODERATE SNOWFALL LATE THIS MORNING... WEATHER... * Bands of lake effect snow will impact southeastern Michigan during the mid to late morning hours. * Rapid accumulation of a half inch will be possible for areas impacted through 11 AM EST. * West winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. * Air temperatures will range between 20 and 25 degrees above zero. IMPACTS... * Localized areas of moderate snow will cause reductions of visibility of less than one mile. There may be rapid fluctuations in visibility. * Accumulating snow and the development of ice may lead to slippery roads particularly on bridges, exit ramps and overpasses. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * Rapid reductions in visibility along with snow covered and slippery roads will cause variable traffic rates throughout the county. Motorists are urged to use caution and account for the variable driving conditions by allowing extra time. * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP

[james1976]

My liquid total this morning is 0.05", so the ratio is 26 to 1.

Impressive. It was definitely very fluffy

[bud2380]

The GFS is starting to show the Sunday/Monday storm in 2 waves.  One that moves through Sunday and mostly dissipates as it moves east, then the secondary stronger storm behind it a day later.  Looks like the 12z run is trying to do the same thing.  

[bud2380]

Clinton will be happy with this run of the GFS.  Brings some nice snows to Kansas City