Niko Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looking lame isn't it amigo! Always goes like this. The better it looks from a distance, the worse it ends up, lol. At least here, I've already outscored last Dec's abysmal total, but November was half of last Nov so for the combined months I may be lacking in the end. You bet! Check this out..... NOAA:A colder pattern becomes established into the middle of the weekonce this southern shortwave passes and the northern vorticity digsthrough Ontario and allow for a brief intrusion of arctic air intothe Great Lakes. The coldest day will be Wednesday when temperatureshold in the 20s throughout the day. The overall upper pattern doesremain progressive though and this bubble of arctic air moderates asthe northern upper low pivots into the Canadian maritime. A wavyzonal pattern then expands east over the CONUS in the wake of thissystem and brings moderated Pacific air back east through the CONUSand cuts off any further intrusion of arctic air for the remainderof this forecast period (and beyond). This will result in moderatingtemperatures back to around 40 for week`s end. Break out the shades and shorts 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looking lame isn't it amigo! Always goes like this. The better it looks from a distance, the worse it ends up, lol. At least here, I've already outscored last Dec's abysmal total, but November was half of last Nov so for the combined months I may be lacking in the end.Yep, really lame unless one is to believe the CMC which shows a few clippers over the next 10 days vs. the GFS which is amping the warmth more in line with the Euro. I think the CMC will lose this battle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 it seems like getting snow in november has been a death sentence for getting anything meaningful in december for southern michigan the past few years. I really hope we don't end up with another brown christmas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 I was in Fargo over night. Whole different world up there. Has to be close to a foot of snow on the ground. Snow piles everywhere. Temp was -9 and WC of -25. Lots of Christmas lights. Definitely puts one in the holiday spirit! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 While here in southern lower Michigan there is not much snow at all that is not the case in the UP and northern lower, here are some reports in the north. Painesdale 36”- Kearsarge 29″- Marquette (airport) 28”-Michigamme 27”- Sawyer 26″ Hancock and Paulding 25″ -Watersmeet, Ishpeming 22″ Ironwood, Gladstone, Munising, Green Garden 24″ Marquette (downtown – which usually has less snow than the Marquette Airport) 19″-- Iron Mt. and Champion18″-- Norway and Jacobsville 16″ Watton 15″ Detour Village, Garden Corners 14″-- Moran 13″ St. Ignace12″-- S. Ste. Marie, Drummond Is.11″-- Mancelona, Manistique 8″ E. Jordan 7″-- Charlevoix, Gaylord 4″-- Grayling 3″-- Alpena and Benzonia 2″ Fife Lake, Atlanta, Mio and Lewiston 1” Here at my house 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Will have to watch to see if the big storm in the Southwest materializes in the next week. If it doesn’t happen, brown Christmas for many of us on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Latest 12z Euro is showing nothing for the extended. As quiet as can be. I've always said to myself that getting November snows is not good for December. Seems like it always works like this. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 I agree. As exciting as November snow events are, they always seem to throw a wrench in December/ early January snowfall. Best to have the snow start in December. I think the last time a snowy November continued throughout the entire winter here in SE WI. was 07-08. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks like nothing on the gfs through the 31st 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Another 1” event here. Ties for the highest snowfall yet again this season. Snowed 6x here for a total of 4.7”Also noticed the person who makes reports on RadarScope near where I live reported 2.2” of snow. It’s amusing how high he always is with reports. Always has an inch more of rain compared to everyone, 60 mph winds when the winds are 40 mph, and the highest snowfall in the metro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 First cross country skiers and ice fishermen on the lake this afternoon. Not sure I’d be that brave, but to each their own. Winter lake season has begun. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 The recent CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks is like a throwback to 2012. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Attm, 30F under partly sunny skies and a few flurries flying from time to time. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Front rolling through this evening. We had a High of 76* today but temps dropping to 40* tonight and a High mañana of 47*. Winds out of the NW 15-20 mph. Typical roller coaster for us. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 CHICAGOOOO. What happened to you why are we now the brown grass advisory place lol I did not move here for this! Lol jk. This has been the most boring start to a winter I can remember in a long time though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 How thick is the ice up there?To be honest I have no idea. I'd guess most of the resorts on lake of the woods opened up for the winter this weekend for ATVs and snowmobiles. They typically "open" the second weekend of December. Actually ice conditions are always all over the map this early. 2-10" would be my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 I agree. As exciting as November snow events are, they always seem to throw a wrench in December/ early January snowfall. Best to have the snow start in December. I think the last time a snowy November continued throughout the entire winter here in SE WI. was 07-08.Several weeks ago JB at Weather Bell documented several past winters that started out with a cold and snowy November only to flip to a mild and dry December. Unfortunately, seems to be a recurring phenomenon around here the past few years. But, in almost all those years January and February ended up being cold and snowy. At least we have something to look forward to. Can't come soon enough for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Cool shot of our southern snowstorm 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Cool shot of our southern snowstorm Are you going to be able to pull any of it your way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Several weeks ago JB at Weather Bell documented several past winters that started out with a cold and snowy November only to flip to a mild and dry December. Unfortunately, seems to be a recurring phenomenon around here the past few years. But, in almost all those years January and February ended up being cold and snowy. At least we have something to look forward to. Can't come soon enough for me.Same here! Looking forward to some snow even if it's a couple inches at a crack. Anything is better than bare ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 First cross country skiers and ice fishermen on the lake this afternoon. Not sure I’d be that brave, but to each their own. Winter lake season has begun.Hey! What lake(s) are you by? My girlfriend lives right by Vadnais lake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 4 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 The trends over the last few days are not looking good for the colder look I was anticipating for the holiday stretch. The missing link is the lack of a -EPO prior to the Christmas period that would have set up a better pattern for our Sub, however, I'm seeing some signs that post Christmas into the New Year things begin to shift around. One thing is certain, we are not lacking in the high lat blocking and we need the PAC jet to cooperate. It does not do so until post Christmas when the expected Split Flow pattern is to develop very late in the month. I was hopeful it would set up right around or just after the Winter Solstice period but that has been delay...but is it denied??? Last night's 00z GEFS precip anomalies for Week 2 certainly are starting to paint an active southern stream to close out the month. Hopefully the timing of the cold air can produce at least one or two winter storms before the months out. The 00z EPS is showing signs of a Christmas Day storm but it may be a wet one for a lot of us across the Sub except for those farther north. We'll have to see how the models trend with this one and if there is a Christmas miracle in the cards this year. The GEFS are also signaling this system as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 00z EC picking up on several systems. The first is a Christmas Day storm that looks to effect the eastern half of Neb. and western Iowa as well as Minn. The second and much stronger storm is one that I have been anticipating on the 26th. This one looks to effect alot of the same areas. The 3rd showing up on the 29th associated with an Artic front and it could be a doozy. This run only gets a very small piece of storm 3, it's mostly out of range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 00z EPS mean. Looking forward to seeing the models really start painting as the begin to catch on to the blocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 00z EPS mean. Looking forward to seeing the models really start painting as the begin to catch on to the blocking. After a bit of a lull in the pattern, glad to see all the models are dialing in on a very active pattern next week into the New Year that we've been talking about. Hope the cold presses! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Clinton, how does the EPO look on both the GEFS/EPS??? Does it begin to tank around Christmas?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Cold front moved through and when have 40* at 7 am. Heading for a high of 45*. Currently some drizzle in the area. We'll have a very chilly week in the 40's with lows at freezing. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 After a bit of a lull in the pattern, glad to see all the models are dialing in on a very active pattern next week into the New Year that we've been talking about. Hope the cold presses!New Years Day will be an ice box my friend! GFS mean showing a lot of the same signals that the EPS is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 New Years Day will be an ice box my friend! GFS mean showing a lot of the same signals that the EPS is. I'm afraid we'll be seeing hard cutters before the colder pattern sets up shop. Hopefully we can finish off the month with a bang! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Hey! What lake(s) are you by? My girlfriend lives right by Vadnais lake.I’m 5 miles due south of Vadnais Lake right down 35E, on Lake McCarrons. Small world! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Is it pretty much a given for a brown Christmas for most of us then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Is it pretty much a given for a brown Christmas for most of us then?I think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 We may be 15-20 degrees above average this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Upper 40s to low 50s for the ones that Received snow this weekend that Stinks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 Thinking back in history, I do remember many brown Christmases over the years and some that it was warm enough to wear short sleeved shirts. I know it happens, but still stinks this year for many of us that were expecting our snow to last or a snowy pattern. Oh well. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 We'll have to see how the models trend with this one and if there is a Christmas miracle in the cards this year. I heard the odds are good if you live on 34th As for the rest of what's being flashed out to the d15 range, yuck my friend! Just yuck! Last winter redux with the Neb up thru MN jack-zone, followed by S Stream systems riding the OH River or N Tennessee route as we have ongoing . Wishing for d10+ indices to rescue us gets old quickly. Not really upset but wow what a bore for my "cold season hobby". 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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