December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Stacsh]

 

Jaster buddy....

 

Not sure if ya saw your headline....but, looks like you are in for some snow....

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019MIZ050-056>058-064>066-071>073-180030-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0029.191218T0000Z-191218T1700Z/Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, South Haven,Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Snow showers are expected this evening into Wednesday  morning. Most of the accumulating snow should fall from early  this evening until just after midnight. Gusty winds tonight will  result in some blowing and drifting of the snow. Total snow  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher  amounts possible.* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central  Michigan.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with patchy blowing  snow that could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.

 

I'll also be in this middle of this.  I guess it's something.  Pretty lame a 1-3 inch event (almost always closer to 1/2 inch in these cases) creates a headline.  But it's been very dull around here in west Michigan.  What makes it worse is the warm up coming.  I'm sure I'll turn the deck light on in the back to check it out a couple times tonight to see a few flakes lol.  

[james1976]

Time to get the steaks on the grill!

[Niko]

I'll also be in this middle of this.  I guess it's something.  Pretty lame a 1-3 inch event (almost always closer to 1/2 inch in these cases) creates a headline.  But it's been very dull around here in west Michigan.  What makes it worse is the warm up coming.  I'm sure I'll turn the deck light on in the back to check it out a couple times tonight to see a few flakes lol.  

Yep...the annoying thing is the warmth that follows it.  At least you get some snow. Im in for some of the white stuff as well, but not as impressive as you guys. At this point, I'll take any snow, even though it will be gone next week.

[Niko]

Time to get the steaks on the grill!

[Clinton]

Tom/Clinton,

 

What a nice two day stretch of winter weather in KC, this snow event was sandwiched in between a much above average temperature pattern. Since Nov. 16th to current, KC is running 4-5 degrees above average. So, we caught lighting in a bottle in an overall warm pattern.

 

Now, all data has a blow torch taking over the country to end this month. (Yes, that arctic air is lurking, I can see it!)

 

We cannot get the pattern to lock in the cold in. Our snow will be totally gone by Saturday this week. Too bad we couldn’t have had this next Monday right before X-Mas. I’m not complaining though! I’ll take snow any time.

 

Few questions:

 

If we’re in a 48 day cycle and this most recent storm was the Halloween part of the pattern, then how come a blow torch sets up for a 10 day period following this storm? If you look back on cycle one, we had much more cold air in the pattern to open Nov. which followed the Halloween part of the pattern.

 

Second, will this warmer part of the pattern cycle back? If it’s a cycling pattern, KC should see several weeks in the Jan-Mar with drier and warmer conditions.

 

Even with a 60 day cycle like Gary suggests, that would put next week as the “Halloween” part of the pattern which produced well below average temps and two minor snow events in KC that week. One on the 28th and one late on the 30th into Halloween morning.

 

Both cycle lengths did not produce a major ridge across the country following the said pattern.

This ridge seems to appear about every 30 days, it could be a harmonic.  Tom and Beltrami had a conversation about this yesterday.

[CentralNebWeather]

Boy the 12Z GFS is a whole lot of nothing.  

[jaster220]

Well, here is some action for SEMI b4 it turns really quiet.......

 

NOAA:

A compact polar low will advance from northern Ontario Tuesday

toward srn Quebec/upstate New York by late Wednesday. This system

will drive an arctic cold front across Se Mi Tues night. The cold

air associated with this system will activate the response off the

Great Lakes. Model solutions actually show a ribbon of higher mid

level moisture being advected along the arctic front. This along

with the added low level moisture off the lakes and rapidly

steepening low-mid level lapses rates suggest at least a short

interval of snow showers Tues night into early Wed morning. Model

soundings actually suggest the potential for a fairly robust

convective response, with good supersaturation with respect to ice

near the dendritic growth zone. This along with increasing winds

within the mixed layer suggests a high potential for snow squalls.

This is likely to result in many areas picking up some minor snow

accums by the brief duration of heavy snow.

 

 

Looks good....you should get some minor accumulation in brief hvy snow (hopefully). At least you will have a white ground.

 

LOL, I try to ignore the wx and what happens? I end up with a headline..   

 

I did post that IF the WRF was onto something, I could see some action Tues night. This has all the looks of the classic "arctic front squalls" that can drop an inch in 30 min's. I'm sure it will happen while I'm asleep per usual.    I'm with Stasch in saying that the looming torch means the excite-O-meter isn't where it should be. But, gonna take a whitening up during the holiday season any time I can since it's now become such a rarity! 

[jaster220]

    Did we miss this somehow? I thought the GoodFantasyStorms model had nada?

 

[Tom]

    Did we miss this somehow? I thought the GoodFantasyStorms model had nada?

 

20191217 0z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh288-306.gif

While I will admit on my bust for the cold I was expecting during the holiday stretch, the storms are indeed showing up, but could we have a window of opportunity by months end to finish off the year with a bang???  If we can somehow get the arctic air to marry with the southern branch late month, I certainly will quickly forget about the Brown Christmas!     The pattern very late month has my interest.

[CentralNebWeather]

While I will admit on my bust for the cold I was expecting during the holiday stretch, the storms are indeed showing up, but could we have a window of opportunity by months end to finish off the year with a bang???  If we can somehow get the arctic air to marry with the southern branch late month, I certainly will quickly forget about the Brown Christmas!     The pattern very late month has my interest.

Canadian showing the storm on the 27th along with the 0Z Euro.  Let's see what post Christmas looks like.  If we can get a storm or two, you would think the possibility of the cold to follow would be enhanced.

[bud2380]

240 hours on the Canadian.  GFS has something in the ball park of this as well.  Euro has some energy hanging out over northern Mexico in this time frame.  

 

 

[Niko]

    Did we miss this somehow? I thought the GoodFantasyStorms model had nada?

 

20191217 0z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh288-306.gif

Now, I will gladly accept this upcoming warmth next week, if and I mean IF, this were to pan out! 

[Niko]

LOL, I try to ignore the wx and what happens? I end up with a headline..   

 

I did post that IF the WRF was onto something, I could see some action Tues night. This has all the looks of the classic "arctic front squalls" that can drop an inch in 30 min's. I'm sure it will happen while I'm asleep per usual.    I'm with Stasch in saying that the looming torch means the excite-O-meter isn't where it should be. But, gonna take a whitening up during the holiday season any time I can since it's now become such a rarity! 

Do not go too far amigo. Stay w us. Weather changes in a heartbeat!

 

[Madtown]

booooooooo

[jaster220]

 

Jaster buddy....

 

Not sure if ya saw your headline....but, looks like you are in for some snow....

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019MIZ050-056>058-064>066-071>073-180030-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0029.191218T0000Z-191218T1700Z/Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, South Haven,Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Snow showers are expected this evening into Wednesday  morning. Most of the accumulating snow should fall from early  this evening until just after midnight. Gusty winds tonight will  result in some blowing and drifting of the snow. Total snow  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher  amounts possible.* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central  Michigan.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with patchy blowing  snow that could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.

 

 

Do not go too far amigo. Stay w us. Weather changes in a heartbeat!

 

 

I know, I know. Just see 07-08 and 08-09 for how quickly "very positive" changes can actually happen around here, lol. With this busy season upon us, I was investing too much time in this last storm that ended up nada! That's not time well spent. I just figured I'd back away for a bit, but BAM! headline time. 

 

Looking at SR models, I may actually catch some of the flakes flying after all. Seems to be a consensus that the better returns/cells happen from roughly 9 pm to around midnight or 1 am. If true I can maybe watch squalls happen. Would be nice to score a SqWarning as some have already. 

[Niko]

I know, I know. Just see 07-08 and 08-09 for how quickly "very positive" changes can actually happen around here, lol. With this busy season upon us, I was investing too much time in this last storm that ended up nada! That's not time well spent. I just figured I'd back away for a bit, but BAM! headline time. 

 

Looking at SR models, I may actually catch some of the flakes flying after all. Seems to be a consensus that the better returns/cells happen from roughly 9 pm to around midnight or 1 am. If true I can maybe watch squalls happen. Would be nice to score a SqWarning as some have already. 

You have a good shot at a couple of inches.

[jaster220]

You have a good shot at a couple of inches.

 

  Snow on snow?? I still have some scrappy shovel piles on my deck surviving from the last LES hit 

[Niko]

  Snow on snow?? I still have some scrappy shovel piles on my deck surviving from the last LES hit 

 

I'll tell ya this amigo...I am sure hoping this month goes out w at least a decent snowevent. I just saw my forecast for early next week and it shows my temps nearing 50F...yikes! Even the old snow piles have a risk of melting w next weeks warmth

[Niko]

Attm, sunny skies and seasonably cold w temps at 32F. It is absolutely gorgeous outside.

[jaster220]

 

I'll tell ya this amigo...I am sure hoping this month goes out w at least a decent snow event. I just saw my forecast for early next week and it shows my temps nearing 50F...yikes! Even the old snow piles have a risk of melting w next weeks warmth

 

This far south in the Mitt, I consider 50F and below to be "winter temps". The ground has to be getting quite a bit colder with the recent chilly days and nights at or below 32F.  Just barely got to 33F for 2 hrs yesterday and today won't be much different. Would be nice to preserve the progress towards cold soil temps and highs in the 40s to 50F can be mitigated by freezing temps overnight. That's my main concern. A 50F high could be a brief spike for an hour or two. The brutal torches are when it stays 10-15F above normal day and night. Do you remember 07-08? Almost every snow event was followed by a melt-off, but they were brief and the ground got frozen and stayed that way a couple inches below the surface. 

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
312 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A polar low is now advancing across northern Ontario, with the lead
edge of a mid level vorticity maximum now approaching nrn
Wisconsin/wrn Upper Mi. A plume of relatively high mid level
moisture within the base of the upper low and good mid level height
falls have combined with increasing over lake instability to
generate snow across northern and west central Lower Mi.

The mid level vorticity max will slide across nrn and cntl Lower Mi
this evening, driving the mid level moist axis into Se Mi. A growing
depth of the cold air across srn Lake Mi will steepen lapse rates.
Strengthening westerly flow off the lake will thus bring lake
enhanced snow showers into Se Mi this evening. Although there will
be some drying in the column overnight, the upper low will drive an
arctic cold front across Se Mi during the overnight hours as it
becomes centered just north of Lake Huron. Model soundings suggest
enough moisture along the front will to produce a band of snow
showers as it traverses the forecast area. The steep lapse rates and
super saturation with respect to ice near the dendritic growth
regime will support high intensity snow showers. A deepening mixed
layer and tightening westerly gradient will also result in gusty
winds during the night. The brevity of the heaviest snow showers
still suggests nighttime snow accumulations of an inch or less.
However, many locals may see the total snow occur over a very brief
(less than an hour) time period.

 

A wild nite tanite for all of SEMI and other MI peeps on here:

[Niko]

This far south in the Mitt, I consider 50F and below to be "winter temps". The ground has to be getting quite a bit colder with the recent chilly days and nights at or below 32F.  Just barely got to 33F for 2 hrs yesterday and today won't be much different. Would be nice to preserve the progress towards cold soil temps and highs in the 40s to 50F can be mitigated by freezing temps overnight. That's my main concern. A 50F high could be a brief spike for an hour or two. The brutal torches are when it stays 10-15F above normal day and night. Do you remember 07-08? Almost every snow event was followed by a melt-off, but they were brief and the ground got frozen and stayed that way a couple inches below the surface. 

No....

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm with whomever said if it isn't snowy, might as well be warm. Wasting money on heat without snow is stupid.

 

If the Pac would have remained more stable, this winter would have been amazing.

 

It's exactly why I've held caution with us folks on the southern end about being over hyped.

 

So, after a cold fall that has already felt like winter (without snow), I'm pretty well writing this one off.

 

Commencing the 5th in the collection of crappiest winters in eastern OK history....

[jaster220]

As usual, it's tough to read my office's take on tonight's event. Their write-up includes some conflicting statements  . Seems DTX is much more bullish on around an inch even over in their CWA, but per usual GRR says it's mostly a US131 focused event? Maybe the better call would've been to exclude us further inland counties and prepare to use the new tool (Sq Warning) if conditions warrant it..

 

DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)

Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

No significant changes in our forecast thinking for tonight and
Wednesday. The passage of an arctic front will bring a short
period of snow showers with gusty winds and some blowing snow to
locations near and west of US-131 tonight into early Wednesday.
All areas likely will have snow showers from late afternoon over
the northern sections early to mid evening over the southern
sections of our Forecast Area.

We have a digging northern stream shortwave and assoicated
upper level closed upper low that makes it almost as far south as
Lake Superior tonight. That puts our area in the cyclonic side of
the upper jet for about 12 hours. It is during this time we
get deeper moisture with cyclonic (to over 700 mb) and there is
strong lift in the DGZ. Also with the 30 knots northwest winds,
the snow bands will make it well inland and the max snowfall band
will be inland of the lake shore, nearly one entire county inland
in fact. So the heaviest snowfall amounts will be closer to US-131
than US-31. At any one location the stronger snow showers will be
only around 3 hours, so nearly all the expected accumulations
will have to happen in the time frame. During that time the latest
HRRR shows the best lift is centered in the DGZ so this will make
for fluffy snowflakes and that will allow higher snowfall
amounts. The HREF and HRRRv4 are suggesting 1 to 2 inches over our
advisory area but with some localized bands of 2 to even 4
inches. Given the gusty winds assoicated with this there will be
blowing and drifting snow with these snow squalls.

 

[Stacsh]

As usual, it's tough to read my office's take on tonight's event. Their write-up includes some conflicting statements  . Seems DTX is much more bullish on around an inch even over in their CWA, but per usual GRR says it's mostly a US131 focused event? Maybe the better call would've been to exclude us further inland counties and prepare to use the new tool (Sq Warning) if conditions warrant it..

 

To be fair, it's nearly impossible to forecast LEH arctic fronts like this.   Why they don't just say" Scattered Snow Squalls.  Briefly localized heavy squalls.  Won't last long.  Good luck if you're out driving in it.  Won't be too much, or might get a couple inches."

[Stacsh]

Maybe we will grill our Christmas EVE dinner this year.

 

"That same upstream Pacific system will build a deep trough just
off shore of our CONUS west coast by Friday. That in turn results
in upstream ridging so until that upstream trough gets to Michigan
(after Christmas) we will have split flow with polar jet in
northern Canada and the southern stream south of Michigan. That
will lead to an extend period of dry weather. The last such event
was in 2010 when between the 13th and the 28th we had only 3 days
with measurable precipitation. Most recent Decembers it`s hard to
get 3 days in a row with no precipitation. Likely we will see
some days with highs into the 50s next week."

[jaster220]

Maybe we will grill our Christmas EVE dinner this year.

 

"That same upstream Pacific system will build a deep trough just

off shore of our CONUS west coast by Friday. That in turn results

in upstream ridging so until that upstream trough gets to Michigan

(after Christmas) we will have split flow with polar jet in

northern Canada and the southern stream south of Michigan. That

will lead to an extend period of dry weather. The last such event

was in 2010 when between the 13th and the 28th we had only 3 days

with measurable precipitation. Most recent Decembers it`s hard to

get 3 days in a row with no precipitation. Likely we will see

some days with highs into the 50s next week."

 

I noticed that as well. There goes my idea of preserving our progress wrt soil temps.. 

[jaster220]

To be fair, it's nearly impossible to forecast LEH arctic fronts like this.   Why they don't just say" Scattered Snow Squalls.  Briefly localized heavy squalls.  Won't last long.  Good luck if you're out driving in it.  Won't be too much, or might get a couple inches."

 

Oh, totally agree, that's why I said they could've held off on a headline here and just used the new headline for the short duration style events. Let's see how this goes. As you say, these are a real crap shoot 

[Mi_Matthew]

Oh, totally agree, that's why I said they could've held off on a headline here and just used the new headline for the short duration style events. Let's see how this goes. As you say, these are a real crap shoot

Recent radar trends look pretty good for you over there. I just hope I'm awake for any convective band/s if they make it this way!

[bud2380]

18z GFS has a decent storm just after Christmas. DVN says the weather will turn more active after Christmas. Sure hope so.

[CentralNebWeather]

We are hosting Christmas here in Central Nebraska with all the relatives the weekend of December 27-29. I would bet on a storm that weekend with the amount of times over the years we have had to postpone or cancel holiday plans. If some of the models are correct, there may be storminess somewhere across the Plains. Questions of where and it what form would precipitation be.

[Clinton]

We are hosting Christmas here in Central Nebraska with all the relatives the weekend of December 27-29. I would bet on a storm that weekend with the amount of times over the years we have had to postpone or cancel holiday plans. If some of the models are correct, there may be storminess somewhere across the Plains. Questions of where and it what form would precipitation be.

There should be a storm on the 28th and 29th according to the LRC.  There will be a large storm ahead of a very strong Artic front but I have this one as a major snow storm targeting KC, Chicago, Detroit.  Just my very amateur opinion.  This correlates to a storm and Artic blast we had on Nov 10th and 11th.  At that time I recorded .75in of snow and sleet.

[St Paul Storm]

Already down to 4F. Low of -8F expected overnight. That’s the extent of the excitement. Snowpack may take a little hit after all this weekend if temps continue to increase. Currently looking at mid 30s for highs.

[Tom]

Alright, Alright, Alright....I've taken about an hour this morning analyzing the pattern over the last 60 days and I am almost certain there is a roughly 30-day (+/- 1 or 2 days) harmonic pattern.  Let me show you what I'm seeing.  I've been thinking about Gary's suggestion of a 58-60 day LRC cycle and why he thinks that's the cycle length. 

 

Let's take for example, the pattern we just experienced with the storm system that effected the southern Plains/MW and tracked into the NE. 

 

Back on Nov 14th, here was the 500mb map of the pattern across North America and there are clearly 4 main troughs on the map below:

 

1) Aleutian Islands
2) SW of Greenland near the Labrador Sea
3) Hudson Bay 
4) Southern TX

 

Nov 14th...

 

 

Nov 15th...also notice how the southern energy doesn't phase with the N Stream...similar to what just happened earlier this week.

 

 

Now, here was the 500mb map back on Dec 16th....where are the main trough features during  this cycle???

 

1) Aleutians
2) SE Canada
3) Hudson Bay
4) Approaching TX

 

 

These troughs don't line up Exactly per se, but you can basically see the idea of how similar this pattern is to what just happened.  The trough near Greenland is displaced farther south a few days ago bc back in Nov there was a +NAO unlike what we are seeing now.  You can see how the LRC at 500mb is useful and how certain teleconnections effect the pattern.

 

NAO chart...during the period in mid Nov there was a +NAO....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you still don't see it or believe it, watch what happens a few days later on Nov 18th...there was that cut-off trough spinning west of the Baja.  I pointed out back in the Autumn and made a mention of it that this would be an interesting feature of the LRC where storms track off of the PAC into the 4 corners as we head deeper into the cold season and why during the 1st cycle it may have been very dry, but as the jet strengthens and a -EPO pattern evolves deeper into the cold season, S Cali/4 corners will get wet and active.

 

You see that feature just west of B.C.???  That's the "kicker" that eventually kicks a piece of the energy near the Baja into the 4 corners and tracks along the southern tier of the U.S.  I believe this pattern is about to illustrate another example of the 30 day (+/- 1 or 2 days), approximately 32 days using this example.

 

In the Nov 18th 500mb map below...the cut-off trough near the Baja will be part of the feature that tracks along the S tier of U.S.  The neg tilted trough tracking across the MW/GL's looks like a piece of the PV that is tracking across the GL's today/tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow's 500mb map shows the energy in the SW (albeit weak), Archipelago Vortex (displaced farther south due to -AO), Ontario Trough and NE PAC trough...very similar to the map above.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Going out farther, towards the part of the pattern that is setting up in the GOM, look what happens in 4 days...

 

 

 

Compare it to Nov 23rd...

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the surface  map...4-5 days later, the same storm is almost in the same exact spot, just a little farther north in Nov.  I think the influence of the big ridge centered across the U.S. this week is causing a zonal flow which is impacting this storm to track farther south along the gulf coast.

 

 

 

 

 

Dec 22nd surface map...

 

 

 

 

Based on the above, and where this pattern is heading around Christmas and the New Year, there will be the development of the SW trough and create the SW Flow that drove all the storms in late Nov.  Not to mention, but the SE ridge will also blossom during the Christmas period and slowly back off around the New Year.  Hope this helps everyone understand what I'm seeing.

[westMJim]

Here at my house 2" of fluffy lake effect snow fell last night. With partly cloudy skies the temperature here is 15° The fluffy snow will not last long with the warmer temperatures later this week and will soon be gone.

[jaster220]

Jingle Bells...Jingle Bells...jingle all the way!  

 

When I turned-in last night about 11:30 it was ripping in Marshall. Near whiteout conditions! Stepped out to 2.5" of fresh powda. Plows were out in force. Nice little mini-storm to tide me over until things get real again post-Christmas. 

 

Heading out thru town this morning..

 

 

 

 

 

[Stacsh]

Jingle Bells...Jingle Bells...jingle all the way!  

 

When I turned-in last night about 11:30 it was ripping in Marshall. Near whiteout conditions! Stepped out to 2.5" of fresh powda. Plows were out in force. Nice little mini-storm to tide me over until things get real again post-Christmas. 

 

Heading out thru town this morning..

 

20191218 Snow.jpg

 

I was stuck between 2 bands.  Only had about an inch here.  

[Minny_Weather]

Got a dusting of lake effect, making this the 3rd straight morning with a dusting on the ground. 23.2*F, not expecting much of a rise in temp today if any.

[Niko]

Attm, 17F under sunny skies. Got a dusting of snow as well here.

 

Congrats to the MI peeps last night who scored a little snow.

[Stormhunter87]

Bleh ice storm on the 26th based on the gfs and a horrible drive across Iowa on the 27th. I've done one ice storm across Iowa, I really don't want to do another.