December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

It is absolutely gorgeous outside. Sunny and crisp w a temp of 27F. They were saying highs in the 20s today, but now changed it to 31F for a high.

[jaster220]

The CMC of all things has some legs.

 

 

Tom (and his MJO post) is not a positive outlook for cold. I would discount d10 Op maps even more than usual, lol

[Stormhunter87]

I want snow but not when I'm arriving into town ahhhhh.

[CentralNebWeather]

104136F9-0DA9-4E2E-BAA5-871DB1502123.jpeg

25" over me.  What could go wrong?  

[Niko]

It gets colder late next week, but nothin extraordinary. Near average temps. Keep in mind, my average is 34F/21F, so most likely in the form of snow, unless the track is a deep cutter.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro with a couple smaller storms after Christmas then it clobbers Nebraska on Sunday the 29th through 240 Hours.  Not sure where it goes from there as that is as far out as pivotal weather goes for me.  At least GFS and Euro are showing storms, though as we know much can change in the next 10 days.  Hopefully the agreement continues.

[hlcater]

12Z Euro with a couple smaller storms after Christmas then it clobbers Nebraska on Sunday the 29th through 240 Hours.  Not sure where it goes from there as that is as far out as pivotal weather goes for me.  At least GFS and Euro are showing storms, though as we know much can change in the next 10 days.  Hopefully the agreement continues.

Guess where the extrapolated path of the low would be? 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Guess where the extrapolated path of the low would be? 

 

Without too much thought, over Iowa?  

[GDR]

Looks like the Omadome has a huge hole in it!!!

[Clinton]

12Z EC has snow on Christmas, the op had it in Kansas as well.  Colder trends!

[CentralNebWeather]

Just looked at the KC Scout web cam.  Hard to believe how fast the snow is melting on the north and west side of the KC area.  My goodness.  

[Clinton]

12z EC and EPS mean

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

I'll take that 12z euro please!

[Hawkeye]

I suppose that, even when the pattern flips, we'll have to rebuild the snow pack west and north again before my area can get good snow.

[hlcater]

Without too much thought, over Iowa?  

Absolutely lol

[CentralNebWeather]

12z EC and EPS mean

 

 

Wow, this would be epic if it verifies.  I'd be happy with half of that.

[mlgamer]

Both the 12z GFS and Euro show a strong surface low near my house at 240 hrs with the heavy snow track missing me to the northwest. Based on past experience over the last 25 years I'd say you can lock that in. <_>

[bud2380]

I like how the Euro brings snow right to my doorstep on Christmas Day, and then falls apart.

 

 

[jaster220]

I think the warm will "over-achieve"  Could be even warmer in Michigan post-xmas.  

 

GFS overdoes the cold, until it doesn't and gets right once every other month.  

 

New LRC to date = 2-3 day frigid spell with WWA level snow, followed by a month watching legit storms miss N and/or S combined with roller-coaster warm-ups.

 

Wash, rinse, repeat..

[jaster220]

On a more cheery note, surprises can happen. Toronto area getting some nice 2-4" snows today that wasn't shown on models let alone forecast. 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS North Platte Nebraska afternoon disco:

 

Remarkably, both models pick up on a more significant system
moving through the central plains region in the Days 8-11 timeframe.
Details should be considered foggy at best but output from both NWP
solutions suggest a potentially high impact event in this period. If
they continue to sing this song will remain the question so stay
tuned.

[Grizzcoat]

The one good thing about having no snow OTG is that when it gets to 49F (today's high) there is no snow to melt and get discouraged about.

[GDR]

Man look at that magnet on the gfs!

[hlcater]

Man look at that magnet on the gfs!

 

The tale as old as time itself 

[james1976]

Full on Iowa Low magnet. Still 10 days out! Haha

[Grizzcoat]

Just watched PP on AccuWX. He too is concerned about being too cold in early JAN due to the unfavorable phase(s) of the MJO along with the AO only being negative for a short time before going +. Doesn't have much faith in the GFS past 4.5 to 5 days. IMO- what is going to happen is a repeat of the active pattern we had in NOV and early DEC- storms come but not enough cold air to get snow S of MN and basically the 45 Latitude. I have sneaky suspicion at least one of the upcoming storms is even going to cut even more W than "normal?" being a Dakotoas special and rain for many. Just not getting things to line up they way many of us need them. Christmas is at least looking at little bit more interesting and I would even take a RASN mix at this juncture.

[Tom]

Happy Friday all!  The timing couldn't be worse to have such warm temps right before the Christmas holiday.  I don't know about you, but it seems like it has been ages where I can go out and do some last minute Christmas shopping while it's snowing or at least have snow OTG.  You sorta loose that "holiday spirit" without the snow.  I'm kinda jelly for those up north who are enjoying a deep snow pack during the holiday season.  Well, if we don't get snow for Christmas....how about the New Year???  I've long believed the pattern would support a stormy holiday season, however, the timing of the cold isn't quite working out just yet...but could it be cold enough to support a winter storm??

 

Here's why I believe there will be a major storm late month and how it lines up with (4) LR forecasting methods: 1) LRC  2) Harmonic Cycle  3) BSR  4) East Asian Rule

 

First off, I've shown in a previous post about a week ago of the 10mb/30mb animations and how they would support a more west/east flow aloft during this period and I have been expecting storms to eject out of the Rockies and "bowl" their way across the CONUS.  The GFS for days has been suggesting a massive SER and cutting systems NW which I wasn't buying into.  IMHO, the Euro/EPS have the right idea which support blocking HP's across the North that'll set up this pattern I have been thinking would happen.  Let me dive in.

 

Using the BSR, during the Dec 10th-14th period, there were Back to Back storms that tracked in a west/east fashion across the Aleutian Islands that support a west/east track across the heartland of the CONUS.  If you follow the LRC, whether you believe in a 48-50 day cycle or a 60 day cycle, they both support a storm that produced similar results.  IMHO, this storm correlates quite well with the Vet's Day storm but bc the teleconnections are not conducive to allow arctic air into the pattern, it won't be as cold this go around. On the other hand, if you use the 30- day harmonic which I pointed out the other day, this system seems to correlate quite well with the second, of a series of  late Nov "back-to-back" storm systems (Nov 26th-27th) & then on (Nov 27th-Dec 1st).  I recall the second storm in late November blew up into a monster occluding low in the  MW.  Given the blocking pattern setting up across North America, this storm should take a more southerly route this time around.

 

Here are some maps showing the track of the late Nov beast...notice the blocking HP across Southern Canada...this is a big clue that we should look for a similar situation going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the 500mb map during this period on Dec 1st...

 

 

 

 

 

Look at the 00z Euro Day 10 map below and compare where the same troughs/ridges are setting up...the main features are the PV near the Archipelago, Deep low across the Central CONUS, Trough off the west coast and Trough just SW of Greenland.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, using the East Asian rule below, you can see a system tracking west/east across the very southern portions of Japan which also suggest and favor a southerly track.  Having said all of the above, the pattern is beginning to look ripe for a stormy one and with enough cold air lurking we should have winter storms brewing.

 

 

[Clinton]

Happy Friday all!  The timing couldn't be worse to have such warm temps right before the Christmas holiday.  I don't know about you, but it seems like it has been ages where I can go out and do some last minute Christmas shopping while it's snowing or at least have snow OTG.  You sorta loose that "holiday spirit" without the snow.  I'm kinda jelly for those up north who are enjoying a deep snow pack during the holiday season.  Well, if we don't get snow for Christmas....how about the New Year???  I've long believed the pattern would support a stormy holiday season, however, the timing of the cold isn't quite working out just yet...but could it be cold enough to support a winter storm??

 

Here's why I believe there will be a major storm late month and how it lines up with (4) LR forecasting methods: 1) LRC  2) Harmonic Cycle  3) BSR  4) East Asian Rule

 

First off, I've shown in a previous post about a week ago of the 10mb/30mb animations and how they would support a more west/east flow aloft during this period and I have been expecting storms to eject out of the Rockies and "bowl" their way across the CONUS.  The GFS for days has been suggesting a massive SER and cutting systems NW which I wasn't buying into.  IMHO, the Euro/EPS have the right idea which support blocking HP's across the North that'll set up this pattern I have been thinking would happen.  Let me dive in.

 

Using the BSR, during the Dec 10th-14th period, there were Back to Back storms that tracked in a west/east fashion across the Aleutian Islands that support a west/east track across the heartland of the CONUS.  If you follow the LRC, whether you believe in a 48-50 day cycle or a 60 day cycle, they both support a storm that produced similar results.  IMHO, this storm correlates quite well with the Vet's Day storm but bc the teleconnections are not conducive to allow arctic air into the pattern, it won't be as cold this go around. On the other hand, if you use the 30- day harmonic which I pointed out the other day, this system seems to correlate quite well with the second, of a series of  late Nov "back-to-back" storm systems (Nov 26th-27th) & then on (Nov 27th-Dec 1st).  I recall the second storm in late November blew up into a monster occluding low in the  MW.  Given the blocking pattern setting up across North America, this storm should take a more southerly route this time around.

 

Here are some maps showing the track of the late Nov beast...notice the blocking HP across Southern Canada...this is a big clue that we should look for a similar situation going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the 500mb map during this period on Dec 1st...

 

 

 

 

 

Look at the 00z Euro Day 10 map below and compare where the same troughs/ridges are setting up...the main features are the PV near the Archipelago, Deep low across the Central CONUS, Trough off the west coast and Trough just SW of Greenland.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, using the East Asian rule below, you can see a system tracking west/east across the very southern portions of Japan which also suggest and favor a southerly track.  Having said all of the above, the pattern is beginning to look ripe for a stormy one and with enough cold air lurking we should have winter storms brewing.

 

Fantastic job and very exciting!  I think it's great news that the late Nov cutters are part of the harmonic you found.  Those storms were moisture producers and I believe there will be plenty of cold air available to produce major snows.

[Clinton]

Yesterday I showed the GFS had the EPO go negative as we got late in the month.  The Euro has joined the party.

 

[Tom]

Yesterday I showed the GFS had the EPO go negative as we got late in the month.  The Euro has joined the party.

 

 

Just curious, but how did the Euro Weeklies look like during the first couple weeks of Jan??  Word on the street is that they turned colder...true??

[Clinton]

Just curious, but how did the Euro Weeklies look like during the first couple weeks of Jan??  Word on the street is that they turned colder...true??

Is this what you mean?

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:  "so your saying there's a chance?"

 

 

Possible post Christmas storm system in the plains Saturday or
Sunday December 28-29...

I normally don`t talk about things this far out, but given people
could be leaving town today and not returning for a week or so I
thought I would look a bit further out. The pattern turns more

favorable for storm systems the weekend after Christmas, but it`s
too far out to say much more than that. If you are traveling
through the Kansas/Nebraska area the weekend after Christmas,
check back in on the forecast as we get closer to see if we do in
fact end up with a storm system in the area during that time
frame. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF are both showing at least some
snow potential, but location and strength is still highly
uncertain.

[Clinton]

NWS Hastings morning disco:  "so your saying there's a chance?"

 

 

Possible post Christmas storm system in the plains Saturday or

Sunday December 28-29...

 

I normally don`t talk about things this far out, but given people

could be leaving town today and not returning for a week or so I

thought I would look a bit further out. The pattern turns more

favorable for storm systems the weekend after Christmas, but it`s

too far out to say much more than that. If you are traveling

through the Kansas/Nebraska area the weekend after Christmas,

check back in on the forecast as we get closer to see if we do in

fact end up with a storm system in the area during that time

frame. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF are both showing at least some

snow potential, but location and strength is still highly

uncertain.

 

AO and NAO are supportive of a big storm after Christmas.

[westMJim]

We are now at the time of this shortest days and next week the days will start to get longer. So far this month the theme has been colder that average with less then average snowfall. At Grand Rapids the mean is now at 29.5° and that is -1.3° and there has been just 8.4” of snow fall average as of December 19^th is 12.5” At Muskegon the mean there is now at 30.8° that is a departure of -0.9° and there just 6.3” of snow fall the average there should be 17.0” by this date. To the east at Lansing their mean is at 29.3° and that is a departure of -0.7° and just 2.9” of snow has fallen and that is below the average for the date of 7.5” so bottom line is colder then average and less snow and now the warm up will begin.

[GDR]

Gfs says what snow in the next 384 hrs

[Stacsh]

Gfs says what snow in the next 384 hrs

 

Everyone talking about a big rain storm after Christmas.  Hard to get excited about a big storm 8-10 days away with temps in the 40's.  But I guess that's all there is right now.  

[GDR]

Gfs showing 15-20 degrees warmer then normal around christmas for most

[bud2380]

00z Euro

 

[CentralNebWeather]

00z Euro

 

This is what NWS Hastings is talking about for the 28-29th.  That would affect post Christmas travel for sure.  Still over a week out and I'm sure changes will occur.

[Niko]

Sunny n gorgeous attm w temps at 26F. My forecast shows dry weather w warming temps right thru Christmas Day and beyond. Temps will be flirting w 50F next week.

 

FWIW: Just saw my extended way down the road and it has March temps (FRIGID) right through first day of Spring along w snow   Watch we get a backloaded Winter.....