December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Thinking back in history, I do remember many brown Christmases over the years and some that it was warm enough to wear short sleeved shirts.  I know it happens, but still stinks this year for many of us that were expecting our snow to last or a snowy pattern.  Oh well.

 

Both '82 (super nino) and '84 were literally shorts wx over here in SMI at Christmas. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Both '82 (super nino) and '84 were literally shorts wx over here in SMI at Christmas. 

Both of those were bad here also.  1983 was the record breaking cold December and 1983-1984 was one I have mentioned many times on here as one of my favorites as a young kid for the amount of snow and big storms/blizzards we had.  Hope the post Christmas to New Years time will produce.

[Niko]

Attm, 28F under cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

With the total precipitation now at 48.82″ 2019 is now the wettest year in recorded history here at Grand Rapids!!! It is now the 2nd wettest year at Muskegon.

 

We are now at the half way point in December 2019. While temperatures so far are near average the snow fall has been well below average. At Grand Rapids the mean at this time is 31.0° average is 31.4° a departure of -0.4° the high for the month so far 48° on the 9^th and the coldest so far is 10 on the 11^th and 12^th There has been only 6.0” of snow fall with 9.5 being average as of this date. At Muskegon the mean so far is at 32.3 that is +0.1° There has been only 4.8” of snow fall well below the average of 12.8” and at Lansing the mean there is 31.3 that is +0.6 above average. And for snow fall just 1.6” has reportedly fell there with the average as of this date being 5.7”

 

With a green Christmas looking more and more likely this would be the 3rd time in the last 10 years that Grand Rapids has seen a back to back green Christmas.  

[Niko]

It will be a quiet, dry, cold week. Great weather for last minute shopping, putting our decor, traveling and etc. Gift for Ma Nature, especially for this time of the year. The weekend looks marvelous as temps climb into the 40s w sunshine. Next week looks nice also. As for now, Christmas Day weather looks decent and mild w temps in the 40s. Plenty of time for that to change.

[Niko]

Jaster-- W the arctic air coming in, you should be able to score some decent LES buddy

[Tom]

I've noticed this stubborn GOM ridge that pops up from time to time in this year's pattern and its looking like its going to happen again right before Christmas...last time this happen it deflected the major winter storm north back in November.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

I've noticed this stubborn GOM ridge that pops up from time to time in this year's pattern and its looking like its going to happen again right before Christmas...last time this happen it deflected the major winter storm north back in November.

 

 

 

Seems like that ridge popped up around Thanksgiving and hosed me out of a good storm then also.

[Tom]

The fight among the models in the extended of whether to take the MJO into Phase 7 or 6???  The Euro has been indicating Phase 6 for a few days now but the GFS/CFSv2/JMA so not soo fast...but wait, is the Euro correcting towards a Phase 7????

 

GEFS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

Euro...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

JMA...

 

[Beltrami Island]

I've noticed this stubborn GOM ridge that pops up from time to time in this year's pattern and its looking like its going to happen again right before Christmas...last time this happen it deflected the major winter storm north back in November.

 

I was looking for a site with archived weather maps to compare current weather and past years for my own curiosity.  

I found that the SPC has a 500mb archive for every day going back to 1998, 0z and 12z.

 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/

I just wish it covered all of north america.

 

Is this the november ridge you are refering to Tom?

[OmahaSnowFan]

The 540 line stays north of me for 216 straight hours from hour 60 all the way to hour 276 on the 12Z GFS today.

[Tom]

I was looking for a site with archived weather maps to compare current weather and past years for my own curiosity.  

I found that the SPC has a 500mb archive for every day going back to 1998, 0z and 12z.

 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/

I just wish it covered all of north america.

 

Is this the november ridge you are refering to Tom?

Yes sir!  Nice find...I almost sense this is close to a 30-day harmonic bc something similar to this happened in late October as well with back to back storm systems.  In November we had back to back storms and now the pattern is lining up the same way right around Christmas and NYE.

[jaster220]

Yes sir!  Nice find...I almost sense this is close to a 30-day harmonic bc something similar to this happened in late October as well with back to back storm systems.  In November we had back to back storms and now the pattern is lining up the same way right around Christmas and NYE.

 

As said, wash-rinse-repeat big storms going north..  

[jaster220]

Jaster-- W the arctic air coming in, you should be able to score some decent LES buddy

 

Reading my office it's not looking likely for more than a dusting Tuesday night. Unless I get lucky twice and the moisture is better than currently expected. Can lightning strike twice in two weeks? I suppose so, but not counting on it tbh. Appreciate the positive thoughts tho amigo! Whatever flakes fly, after Wednesday we all get bored until post-Christmas..

[Niko]

Reading my office it's not looking likely for more than a dusting Tuesday night. Unless I get lucky twice and the moisture is better than currently expected. Can lightning strike twice in two weeks? I suppose so, but not counting on it tbh. Appreciate the positive thoughts tho amigo! Whatever flakes fly, after Wednesday we all get bored until post-Christmas..

[Stacsh]

Reading my office it's not looking likely for more than a dusting Tuesday night. Unless I get lucky twice and the moisture is better than currently expected. Can lightning strike twice in two weeks? I suppose so, but not counting on it tbh. Appreciate the positive thoughts tho amigo! Whatever flakes fly, after Wednesday we all get bored until post-Christmas..

 

Yep, I'm not excited for LES. It's been a non-event every time so far this year here.  Sucks there will be no snow for the Holidays.   Winter just doesn't get going here until early January anymore.  

[Niko]

Just stepped outside to take my garbage out and man, it feels splendid. Nice, calm day w partly cloudy skies n temps at seasonable levels. At 32F.

[Hawkeye]

Today's Euro has seven days of 40s here beginning Thursday.  If it's not going to snow, I'll gladly take 40s.

[jaster220]

Today's Euro has seven days of 40s here beginning Thursday.  If it's not going to snow, I'll gladly take 40s.

 

Personally, I'd rather keep the ground cold, or at least "cool" which won't happen with a string of upper 40's. I don't need my garden tulips 3" high in January like I had in 2012 

[jaster220]

The WRF was way too robust with Saturday's RN->SN "event" so I'm taking it's portrayal of the coming arctic front with a large grain of salt. 
 

Nonetheless, I won't mind if it's correct for tomorrow night, lol

 

[St Paul Storm]

No organized snow systems on the horizon other than maybe a dusting tomorrow. But this is what I like to read. A white Christmas is (hopefully) a lock:

 

Highs will climb to the 20s

area-wide Thursday and Friday followed by highs in the 20s and 30s

over the weekend into early next week. Skies will feature a

mixture of sun and clouds but overall not a whole lot of solid

sunshine nor temperatures above freezing to do much disintegration

of the existing snowpack through the upcoming weekend.

[Niko]

Partly cloudy skies w temps at 26F. Its gorgeous outside.

[Niko]

Well, here is some action for SEMI b4 it turns really quiet.......

 

NOAA:

A compact polar low will advance from northern Ontario Tuesday
toward srn Quebec/upstate New York by late Wednesday. This system
will drive an arctic cold front across Se Mi Tues night. The cold
air associated with this system will activate the response off the
Great Lakes. Model solutions actually show a ribbon of higher mid
level moisture being advected along the arctic front. This along
with the added low level moisture off the lakes and rapidly
steepening low-mid level lapses rates suggest at least a short
interval of snow showers Tues night into early Wed morning. Model
soundings actually suggest the potential for a fairly robust
convective response, with good supersaturation with respect to ice
near the dendritic growth zone. This along with increasing winds
within the mixed layer suggests a high potential for snow squalls.
This is likely to result in many areas picking up some minor snow
accums by the brief duration of heavy snow.

[Niko]

The WRF was way too robust with Saturday's RN->SN "event" so I'm taking it's portrayal of the coming arctic front with a large grain of salt. 

 

Nonetheless, I won't mind if it's correct for tomorrow night, lol

 

20191216 12z wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_neus_fh32-48.gif

Looks good....you should get some minor accumulation in brief hvy snow (hopefully). At least you will have a white ground.

[Clinton]

00z EC advertising a n ice cutter in the 27th and 28th time frame  The track isn't consistent yet but it has shown this storm several runs in a row now.

[Tom]

00z EC advertising a n ice cutter in the 27th and 28th time frame  The track isn't consistent yet but it has shown this storm several runs in a row now.

 

How does the EPO look for later in the month??  We need that to start turning negative and "press" the cold.

[Clinton]

How does the EPO look for later in the month??  We need that to start turning negative and "press" the cold.

EPO

[Clinton]

This mornings 6z GFS showing the Artic blast I have been expect as we get into the new year.  I look for this to speed up just a little.

[westMJim]

One of the biggest weather events of the year 2019 for Grand Rapids will be......

 

 

...RECORD FOR ANNUAL PRECIPITATION SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI...

 

THE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR GRAND RAPIDS, MI WAS BROKEN THIS

MORNING. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR 2019 NOW STANDS AT 48.81 INCHES.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48.80 INCHES SET IN 2008. THIS IS THE

MOST PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN RECORDED IN A CALENDAR YEAR IN

GRAND RAPIDS SINCE RECORDS STARTED BEING KEPT IN 1892.

 

THE NEXT RECORD REPORT FOR ANNUAL PRECIPITATION FOR 2019 WILL BE

SENT AT THE END OF THE YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE DAILY CLIMATE REPORTS

FOR THE MOST RECENT TOTAL.

As of today December 17 the total for the year is at 48.82"

 

At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 23 and just a trace of snow on the ground.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says 50's (maybe 60) over the area this weekend into early next week.   20-25 degrees above normal blowtorch will wipe out the snow we've had.  They mention a possible chance of rain on Christmas.  Brown and wet Christmas.  

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy and seasonably cold w temps at 26F.

[Niko]

NOAA:

There is a chance for snow squalls, brief intervals of intensesnowfall, tonight as an arctic cold front advances south across thearea. While total accumulations are expected to be an inch,snow showers will be capable of severely restricting visibilitiesand producing a quick coating of snow on the roads.

Lake effect snow showers or flurries will persist into Wednesday.This heavier snow shower activity may bring additional local amountsof around an inch during the day.

[MIKEKC]

Tom/Clinton,

 

What a nice two day stretch of winter weather in KC, this snow event was sandwiched in between a much above average temperature pattern. Since Nov. 16th to current, KC is running 4-5 degrees above average. So, we caught lighting in a bottle in an overall warm pattern.

 

Now, all data has a blow torch taking over the country to end this month. (Yes, that arctic air is lurking, I can see it!)

 

We cannot get the pattern to lock in the cold in. Our snow will be totally gone by Saturday this week. Too bad we couldn’t have had this next Monday right before X-Mas. I’m not complaining though! I’ll take snow any time.

 

Few questions:

 

If we’re in a 48 day cycle and this most recent storm was the Halloween part of the pattern, then how come a blow torch sets up for a 10 day period following this storm? If you look back on cycle one, we had much more cold air in the pattern to open Nov. which followed the Halloween part of the pattern.

 

Second, will this warmer part of the pattern cycle back? If it’s a cycling pattern, KC should see several weeks in the Jan-Mar with drier and warmer conditions.

 

Even with a 60 day cycle like Gary suggests, that would put next week as the “Halloween” part of the pattern which produced well below average temps and two minor snow events in KC that week. One on the 28th and one late on the 30th into Halloween morning.

 

Both cycle lengths did not produce a major ridge across the country following the said pattern.

[GDR]

[GDR]

‘‘Tis the season!!

[Niko]

Might as well take advantage of this thaw coming.

[Niko]

Looks like temps should be very mild early next week. Temps will be in the 40s, possibly approaching 50F, right b4 Christmas. Wow!

[jlp]

If there's no snow it mine as well be warm.

[BrianJK]

Anyone want to take a wild guess what the outlook for next December will be?

[Niko]

Jaster buddy....

 

Not sure if ya saw your headline....but, looks like you are in for some snow....

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019MIZ050-056>058-064>066-071>073-180030-/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0029.191218T0000Z-191218T1700Z/Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison,Grand Rapids, Ionia, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, South Haven,Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek1128 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...Snow showers are expected this evening into Wednesday  morning. Most of the accumulating snow should fall from early  this evening until just after midnight. Gusty winds tonight will  result in some blowing and drifting of the snow. Total snow  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher  amounts possible.* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest and west central  Michigan.* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with patchy blowing  snow that could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.