OmahaSnowFan Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 It really sucks as I much prefer front loaded winters to back loaded ones, and that 6" stat is pitiful. Yeah, give me snow in December- February, but by March 1st I'm ready for spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 It's getting to the point that DEC in IA and other states on the longitude of IA don't see real winter until later. I agree- give me snow/cold when the days are still short- once into late JAN/FEB the cold/snow is basically fighting itself against incoming solar. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 12z Euro 10-day snowfall...... pitiful for many. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 My highest snowfall so far this season is just 1.8" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Speaking specifically to the Iowa peeps here. Everyone just needs to calm down. Last year was a hell of a winter and we pretty much didn't see a flake until January. oh yeah... we also took a run at the all time snow record in Oct this year too. We will get some more snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Not much change on the EPS mean for next weeks storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 A random WWA for 3 counties in NW Kansas lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 What dates are supposed to match up with the GOM low system in the LRC? Is that the system for beginning of next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 What dates are supposed to match up with the GOM low system in the LRC? Is that the system for beginning of next week?Oct 25th-27th...it seems to me it’s lining up with the 13th-14th system coming out of the GOM. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 HRRR came in almost twice as strong with the snow tonight. Seems reasonable that CR/IC might be able to squeak out a quick inch. 5 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 HRRR came in almost twice as strong with the snow tonight. Seems reasonable that CR/IC might be able to squeak out a quick inch. Trends with most of the short term models have been good. Fingers crossed! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now... Had 27.6" Dec of 2017 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Odd run at the end of the EURO. Not buying the EC storm. I think the GFS is on to something. Darn it, WILL NOT GET SUCKED IN.... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Attm, 27F under cloudy skies. Received a dusting of snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 HRRR came in almost twice as strong with the snow tonight. Seems reasonable that CR/IC might be able to squeak out a quick inch.I'd like to see that a bit more north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Very quiet pattern in my extended forecast. ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 I wish tomorrow morning's little snow event would slow up by a couple hours so I could see it. Models generally show it falling in the 4-7am period. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 Actually wouldn't surprise me if it came in faster than what models show. Common with these NW flow waves. They also have a tendency to over perform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'm heading back to North Carolina if that verifies lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 My gosh. With the GFS track record, this will all be gone on tonight's run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 This would be crazy to see unfold if it did happen. Pretty sure all of Texas would freak out. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 This would be crazy to see unfold if it did happen. Pretty sure all of Texas would freak out.The precious in the south is all IP/ZR, not snow unfortunately 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The precip in the south is all IP/ZR, not snow unfortunately fortunately for my sanity's sake Fixed! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 This has to be the strangest 6 to 10 day temp outlook map I have ever seen. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 To add to Thunder98's map. From todays CPC 6-10 day forecast discussion: "FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Much below average, 1 out of 5,with good agreement on the 500-hPa pattern offset by predicted low amplitudecirculation anomalies and a transitioning circulation pattern. " Good luck to all model grasping right now. The only thing that is predictable right now is unpredictability. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 This map is like a throwback to 2012. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 I'm somewhere between that NOAA map and that GFS map above. The GFS shouldn't mock me like that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 DVN saying active pattern and with a pattern change will come model volatility. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)ISSUED AT 237 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019The overall hemispheric pattern supports a much more active weatherpattern across the Midwest into the foreseeable future.Additionally, the hemispheric wave pattern will be in a state ofchange which will result in lower than normal predictability andcontinuity of the models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z GFS just lock this in. Be right for once, ha ha. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 @bud I know its minor but what's the 18z showing for accumulations tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z GFS just lock this in. Be right for once, ha ha. God, I wish the GFS was remotely accurate right now. Snowmobile trails down here are all marked and ready. And 6 inches is enough to open up the trails. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 GFS for tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The precious in the south is all IP/ZR, not snow unfortunatelyOh I know but wouldn't that be crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 18z shows the ghastly repeat of a December 2000 in my neighborhood. Theres big stuff ahead, just don't know what that is yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 @bud...thanks! Although it's a minor disturbance tonight Des Moines has a pretty interesting write up on it: A weak area of low pressure will move southeastahead of high pressure overnight with a band snow developingmainly just north/northeast of the surface reflection. This bandwill be mainly thermally driven with vigorous forcing within arelatively deep dendritic layer of around 5 kft. Supersaturationwithin this layer looks supportive of larger dendrites which wouldfurther support the potential for a short period of intensesnowfall rates > 1 inch per hour. As of now, these higher snowfallrates look to be aligned from near Fort Dodge to Marshalltown andMontezuma with a band of snowfall of 1 to 2 inches possible. Muchof this snow would fall between midnight and 6 am across the areawith the more intense rates lasting an hour or less. Again, thegreatest threat will be the snow accumulating quickly on roadways.While the wind is not expected to be a factor, the fluffy natureof the snow with snow ratios near 20:1 would be supportive of snowfog created by vehicles lofting the snow and further reducingvisibilities. No headlines at this time but will continue tomonitor and adjust the forecast as needed. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 And now wpc ain't buying it for Omaha. Sigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2019 Report Share Posted December 10, 2019 The HRRR is consistently laying down the best snow (if you can call 1-2" "best") late tonight from Marshalltown through Iowa City. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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