December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Mi_Matthew]

 

 

          

[Clinton]

 

 

          

GFS is getting closer....

[jaster220]

 

 

          

 

Yep, thus my post above that you may have to go back to the MOAB storm to find the answer to the question. But, allow me to caution you that we have seen this same look at 500mb numerous times just since I've been following wx boards, none of which went big obviously. What forced the hand back in '78 was that the SLP riding the arctic branch of the jet stream was itself an extremely strong storm that originated in Siberia, crossed over the top of the globe, and literally plunged almost due south with it's load of below zero air in tow. Until you see something like that being modeled, you are not truly looking at another Jan '78. Similar in some ways perhaps, but not on the same level. Doesn't mean a winter version of what Olga was isn't a major deal,  it just may not equate to '78 in size and scope. Jan '78 was essentially 2 major bliz's wrapped up into one monster to create surreal images like these:

 

 

[Clinton]

Jaster, Niko check out how similar the point where it closed off in Oct to now is.

 

[Mi_Matthew]

Yep, thus my post above that you may have to go back to the MOAB storm to find the answer to the question. But, allow me to caution you that we have seen this same look at 500mb numerous times just since I've been following wx boards, none of which went big obviously. What forced the hand back in '78 was that the SLP riding the arctic branch of the jet stream was itself an extremely strong storm that originated in Siberia, crossed over the top of the globe, and literally plunged almost due south with it's load of below zero air in tow. Until you see something like that being modeled, you are not truly looking at another Jan '78. Similar in some ways perhaps, but not on the same level. Doesn't mean a winter version of what Olga was isn't a major deal,  it just may not equate to '78 in size and scope. Jan '78 was essentially 2 major bliz's wrapped up into one monster to create surreal images like these:

 

Bliz of 78-Mansfield OH.jpg

 

Bliz of 78-Wood Cnty OH.jpg

I fully expect to be let down, but I still can't help myself! 

[OKwx2k4]

Please verify!!

[Mi_Matthew]

 

 

Well, if that one doesn't work out...

[Clinton]

Please verify!!

gfs_asnow_scus_45.png

Are you trying to steal my snow!  

[Mi_Matthew]

Clinton, what time are the 0z GEFS usually available? There's gotta be some epic snow depths somewhere in there.

[Clinton]

Clinton, what time are the 0z GEFS usually available? There's gotta be some epic snow depths somewhere in there.

In about an hour or so.

[Niko]

Yep, thus my post above that you may have to go back to the MOAB storm to find the answer to the question. But, allow me to caution you that we have seen this same look at 500mb numerous times just since I've been following wx boards, none of which went big obviously. What forced the hand back in '78 was that the SLP riding the arctic branch of the jet stream was itself an extremely strong storm that originated in Siberia, crossed over the top of the globe, and literally plunged almost due south with it's load of below zero air in tow. Until you see something like that being modeled, you are not truly looking at another Jan '78. Similar in some ways perhaps, but not on the same level. Doesn't mean a winter version of what Olga was isn't a major deal,  it just may not equate to '78 in size and scope. Jan '78 was essentially 2 major bliz's wrapped up into one monster to create surreal images like these:

 

Bliz of 78-Mansfield OH.jpg

 

Bliz of 78-Wood Cnty OH.jpg

Now that's deep snow!

[Niko]

Are you trying to steal my snow!  

Keep an eye on him........

[OKwx2k4]

Are you trying to steal my snow!

Nah, um, just want to borrow it for awhile.

[OKwx2k4]

Keep an eye on him........

[jaster220]

Jaster, Niko check out how similar the point where it closed off in Oct to now is.

 

 

Wow, that's pretty amazing. And slightly east is ideal imho. Now to happen, lol

[jaster220]

I fully expect to be let down, but I still can't help myself! 

 

I totally get it! Someone had a list of all the OH bomb storms in recorded weather era. They do happen, just infrequently. Wish I had saved the list. I think there were 4 last century: Jan '78, Feb '65, Jan '18 are the ones I can remember for sure but I think there was another one. That person's comment was that we seem to be a little bit overdue. 

 

Edit - Ok, I found that posted listing. Guess my memory wasn't the best either. There were actually 5 last century besides 1993. 5 that SEMI/SMI were included in the action I mean. 

 

Ohio (mainly the western/northwestern portion gets the bulk of the storms since 1864) is really due for a major bomb. The last real one was 1993 on the eastern edge of the state. Before that you had 1978, 1965, 1950, 1918, 1913, 1894, 1864.

[Mi_Matthew]

Niko, check out the 06z NAM. It tries for secondary development along the arctic front. Maybe something, maybe nothing but the NAM usually does a decent job sniffing smaller features out.

 

Oops, this was for the early week storm.

[Mi_Matthew]

I totally get it! Someone had a list of all the OH bomb storms in recorded weather era. They do happen, just infrequently. Wish I had saved the list. I think there were 4 last century: Jan '78, Feb '65, Jan '18 are the ones I can remember for sure but I think there was another one. That person's comment was that we seem to be a little bit overdue.

 

Edit - Ok, I found that posted listing. Guess my memory wasn't the best either. There were actually 5 last century.

Well there's gotta be one this century...right?

[jaster220]

 

 

Well, if that one doesn't work out...

 

Well well, what do we see here?  That would be sweet as well. I'll be happy for 1 before or at Christmas. (unless ofc I have to watch the EC getting 2 or 3, lol)

[jaster220]

Good morning SEMI Peeps! 

 

Last night's 0z GFS indeed put together a slightly eastward version of the GOMEX Low and it looked great. Ofc, the very next model run (6z) paints a completely different outcome. Still, worth showing this I think.

 

[jaster220]

Well there's gotta be one this century...right?

 

..and no time like the present as far as I'm concerned. 

[Niko]

Niko, check out the 06z NAM. It tries for secondary development along the arctic front. Maybe something, maybe nothing but the NAM usually does a decent job sniffing smaller features out.

 

Oops, this was for the early week storm.

I agree. The NAM is sometimes more accurate than you would think. In the past , it has been known to surpass other models.

[Niko]

Attm, 28F under cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

Good morning SEMI Peeps! 

 

Last night's 0z GFS indeed put together a slightly eastward version of the GOMEX Low and it looked great. Ofc, the very next model run (6z) paints a completely different outcome. Still, worth showing this I think.

 

20191207 0zgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-210.gif

 

Ha HA!  Euro last night also still flashing the potential for a legit GOMEX system! I just don't see it happening w/o cold air, but who knows??

 

 

[Niko]

Ha HA!  Euro last night also still flashing the potential for a legit GOMEX system! I just don't see it happening w/o cold air, but who knows??

 

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019120700.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif

[Stacsh]

Certainly no sustained cold air anytime soon.  

[bud2380]

12z GFS with a nice bout of snow for parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Unfortunately it’s 8 days away.

[MIKEKC]

Rinse and repeat here in KC...next 16 days on the GFS...NOTHING!

 

Horrible pattern...when will it change, nobody really knows.

 

For those people that get snow this week, not many...Enjoy!

 

Chiefs 35 Patriots 17 Bet the house on it!

[MIKEKC]

Lol....GFS shows snow in Georgia and S. Carolina, if that happens, I might just drive my truck into a wall just to see if the airbags work.

[Stacsh]

Most snow has melted away here, mostly due to no precip as well as warmer ground that it fell on.  Should get some refresher Lake effect snow, but even that is looking less as the cold shot is dry and won't last long.  Never trust anything more than 2 days out.  Another warm rainy December day coming up Monday in Michigan. 

[mlgamer]

Hey all! Just checking in to report that the monthly snowfall totals in Topeka have been moving backwards.   

 

Oct - 1.5"  Nov - 0.3"  Dec - 0.1"

 

I am guessing Dec 17/18 is next best chance of anything significant here, but not holding my breathe. Pretty blah so far...

[Andie]

Okla/Tx could text this in with one word. Boring.

A sad 40% chance of rain with what they are calling a "cold front" on Tuesday.

Otherwise, it's a yawner!

[Hoosier]

The 12z Euro is a perfect example of what I was talking about yesterday in regards to the east coast. The surface low tracks off the coast on this run and it still rains in the big cities. The other surface low farther west screws them. And it's not a traditional miller b setup where a coastal takes over and the cold collapses toward the coast.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS yesterday showing feet of snow, today noda in the same location. Might be one of the reasons it is questioned so much on here.

[Stacsh]

GFS yesterday showing feet of snow, today noda in the same location. Might be one of the reasons it is questioned so much on here.

It’s trash with storms over 4-5 days out. Does okay showing a pattern, but overdoes everything the further out you get. Even the ensembles. How many times does it show extreme cold only to be pushed backed weeks at a time?

[Stormy]

I agree that this pattern is really boring, but I’m enjoying it nonetheless. It appears like the next several weeks will be quite a bit dryer than normal Had very nice mild temps to be doing things outdoors the last while and the lawns still are fairly green!

[CentralNebWeather]

It’s trash with storms over 4-5 days out. Does okay showing a pattern, but overdoes everything the further out you get. Even the ensembles. How many times does it show extreme cold only to be pushed backed weeks at a time?

Great points.

[Stormy]

Here is how I've always understood it, is that snow pack creates a baroclinic zone and storms are more likely to follow the track along the baroclinic zone.

 

Below is the definition from the NWS that seems to support this. I have heard meteorologists state this as well, and I'm pretty certain the NWS states it regularly in their AFDs.

 

 

Baroclinic Zone

A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems

Yes I also remember the NWS mentioning it a number of times in prior years. A sharp snow pack gradient sometimes creates a COOL BREEZE in the adjacent snow free areas because of temperature/pressure differences like what occurs along shorelines and coasts (sea breeze) of major bodies of water.

I should have remembered that it’s called a “snow breeze”. I suddenly remembered an article I saw a long time ago and thought i’ld look it up, and it didn’t take long to find it so thought I’ll belatedly share it.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/tags/snowbreeze.html

 

Edit: discussion I’m referring to was on page 4 of this thread.

[dubuque473]

Looking forward to January already!

[clintbeed1993]

I cannot believe how awful this pattern is. December's are literally almost always like this now. I don't get it.  At least my area got 1 storm before this crap settled in, but I'd trade that for something decent around Christmas. This is the best time a year for snow and it's almost always a snooze these days