SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Going to go through most of the 11/20-12/20 period without any impressive cold in the lower 48, the cut-off trough at Thanksgiving in the SW notwithstanding. Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 A quick extrapolation suggests that at late day 10/early day 11 looks like a big fat WINDSTORM.Explosive cyclogenesis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme. Low solar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 MLK Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 48F and damp out there. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 MLKOne of these years you will hit the jackpot! Could be 2035 but it will most likely happen! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Good point, and it turned out much better than I thought it would at the end. Comparison of the last 3 runs, not all the same hour as this only shows 24 hour increments. And todays: Yeah, hour 240 actually doesn't appear very splitty. I think we are all just gunshy about seeing that pattern since it has dominated for so long. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 One of these years you will hit the jackpot! Could be 2035 but it will most likely happen!It’ll soon be EIGHT YEARS since 2012. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme. Would certainly be awesome to see this season reach the heights of such solar max snoozers as 1978-79 and 2013-14, but I doubt it will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Speaking of winter flowers... forgot to post this yesterday. Roses are still blooming in our cutting flower garden next to the new garage. This is is a pretty low spot in the yard as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 It’ll soon be EIGHT YEARS since 2012.It was a lovely week. This is all I have from that event I believe...Stupid Samsung phone that died before I could get all of the pics off of it. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Would certainly be awesome to see this season reach the heights of such solar max snoozers as 1978-79 and 2013-14, but I doubt it will. Even if we have something half as good... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Most of the Pacific is warmer than normal right now... Love to see the warm water around Hawaii. The lack of Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is the major culprit for this current state of affairs. We are in dire need of some prolonged storminess originating in that vicinity if we desire a lasting change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Going to go through most of the 11/20-12/20 period without any impressive cold in the lower 48, the cut-off trough at Thanksgiving in the SW notwithstanding.Background state is/will remain cold, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme.Let’s bump this in 6 weeks. The last 2 weeks have been less blocky. But the previous two months were very blocky. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Would certainly be awesome to see this season reach the heights of such solar max snoozers as 1978-79 and 2013-14, but I doubt it will.+QBO/-ENSO are often very blocky across the NPAC regardless of solar. But any other combo and weak solar demonstrably aids in opening the conduits for sustained blocking, especially during Nov-Jan. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 It’s December 8th. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 The lack of Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is the major culprit for this current state of affairs. We are in dire need of some prolonged storminess originating in that vicinity if we desire a lasting change.Depends. Aleutian/NPAC troughing actually promotes coastal downwelling thanks to geostrophic/wind stress forcing against the boundary current system. So it really depends on the longitude and the presence of a NPAC high. And whether that “blob” lives or dies won’t change anything in terms of the weather patterns. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Depends. Aleutian/NPAC troughing actually promotes coastal downwelling thanks to geostrophic/wind stress forcing against the boundary current system. So it really depends on the longitude and the presence of a NPAC high.And whether that “blob” lives or dies won’t change anything in terms of the weather patterns.If it dies it will mean the pattern has changed, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Aunt Bethany, by any chance does your cat like Jello? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 It’s December 8th. My father was born on this date in 1952. ANALOG?! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 It’s December 8th. It was -20 with a high of only 6 on that date in 2013 here. I wonder when that kind of event returns... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 It was -20 with a high of only 6 on that date in 2013 here. I wonder when that kind of event returns...Not today. Tomorrow doesn’t look good either. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Not today. Tomorrow doesn’t look good either.mlk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 mlkStarting to fight those sun angles by then... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Starting to fight those sun angles by then... Luckily we can hope for a 1/10/17 repeat Once you're past December 21 the sun angles make it harder and harder though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Starting to fight those sun angles by then...Many many weeks after MLK 2019! Only sun angle was my brights shining against and icy snow covered road! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 He might have to. Been pretty dry the past few months. C4853F4B-F29F-4448-B17D-09A8C822E38A.pngNewberry volcano looks right on the money ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Interestingly, though SLE's all time record low of -12 was set on December 8th, their record for December 6th is 30 degrees warmer at 18 set in 1956. There are also some periods of relatively low hanging fruit records (From a historical perspective), during the first half of January. From the 2-6th their record lows are all in the 11-16 range. In fact the 14 on 1/6/17 tied a daily record. That was the first time they tied or broke a January record low since 1980. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 00z GEFS forecast Teleconnection IndicesYeah PNA tanks, but EPO is not cooperating. Nonetheless I am cautiously optimistic. 00z GFS in 5 hours 22 minutes00z ECMWF in 7 hours 39 minutes00z GEFS in 7 hours 54 minutes00z EPS in 10 hours 24 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ or Raging Jet and Windstorms!!!! ☁ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Fixed the bottom of your post. 00z GEFS forecast Teleconnection Indices Yeah PNA tanks, but EPO is not cooperating. Nonetheless I am cautiously optimistic. 00z GFS in 5 hours 22 minutes00z ECMWF in 7 hours 39 minutes00z GEFS in 7 hours 54 minutes00z EPS in 10 hours 24 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ or Raging Jet and Windstorms!!!! Or any type of weather at all!!! ☁ 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Snowed here for a few hours. Then it rained. Ultimate Sad Snowman! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Fixed the bottom of your post. Accurate. Basically no split flow, or inversion hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Seems like a fairly coolish airmass for next weekend. Snow levels about 2000-2500' in NW Oregon, 1000-2000' in Washington. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Brian in Leavenworth was right. The Saturday system goes into Norcal now, dry and chilly next Saturday/Sunday. Turns into a nice snow event for SLC and Denver. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Seems like a fairly coolish airmass for next weekend. Snow levels about 2000-2500' in NW Oregon, 1000-2000' in Washington.Need precip for snow levels to matter... models look pretty dry next weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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