Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Best ensembles by a MUDSLIDE(or landslide) since late November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I’m still browsing the Jan 2019 thread and the ensembles posted there are showing up as current runs...and to me they look lovely!Because they are based on the old GFS. We are lamenting the FV3 which is now the operational GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GEFS Portland surface temps. Hmmm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Because they are based on the old GFS. We are lamenting the FV3 which is now the operational GFS.So we need to discount the ensembles. Old junk? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GEFS Seattle surface temps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 It's one of my favorites. Just so you know the early part of S1 is the weakest - it continuously gets better. Season 3 was amazing, especially considering it was on Syfy of all channels. I'm curious to see how it does on Amazon. I've only heard great things so far and S4E1 was pretty good. Anyways, I highly recommend it if you like sci-fi/political drama stuff. Yeah... it went from 77% on Rotten Tomatoes for season 1 to 95% in season 2 and then 100% for seasons 3 and 4. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 So we need to discount the ensembles. Old junk?Or hope the FV3 has its head up it’s a**. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The email contact is using the old GFS. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 00Z GFS must not have been good, the usual culprits are not on here telling us how great it might be.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The new GFS has been solid since the upgrade. I have been impressed overall. Sometimes it leads the ECMWF. For example... the GFS has been showing this weekend being fairly dry in WA for a week now. The ECMWF once looked wet and has slowly caved to the drier GFS solution. And it's a fairly dry weekend. ECMWF is still king... but the GFS is getting closer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 00Z GFS must not have been good, the usual culprits are not on here telling us how great it might be....It’s available to review ONLINE!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just saw an add for The Expanse and thought I should check it out.Expanse is good and it gets better every season (4) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 It’s available to review ONLINE!!!I am LAZY.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 At least the next 7-10 days are looking pretty dang wet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Holy crap! On the 0z ensemble the operational was the absolute warmest member and the control one of the coldest with a drop to -11 at one point. Talk about a complex pattern evolution. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 4 clearly better than the GFS, but won't know until Day 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 4 clearly better than the GFS, but won't know until Day 5 I have a better chance of winning the lottery and being struck by lightning in the same day than that GFS run has of verifying. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I have a better chance of winning the lottery and being struck by lightning in the same day than that GFS run has of verifying.It was THAT cold??? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GEFS Seattle surface temps Do u have EUG? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 From a 500mb pattern perspective the 0z GFS ensemble is by far better than any previous run. Much sharper GOA block. I think the operational over thought the pattern. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Meanwhile, I will play the same comparison game with the Canadian vs. its' ensembles. Operational, hour 240 Ensemble: And also the GEFS at the same hour 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Meanwhile, I will play the same comparison game with the Canadian vs. its' ensembles. Operational, hour 240 Ensemble: And also the GEFS at the same hour BIG January on the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 It was THAT cold??? No....simply THAT unlikely. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 From a 500mb pattern perspective the 0z GFS ensemble is by far better than any previous run. Much sharper GOA block. I think the operational over thought the pattern.It doesn’t concern you that the ensembles are based on the old GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 BIG January on the wayCant wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Canadian ensembles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 BIG January on the way One thing for sure is they all have major GOA blocking including the outlandish GFS run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I think all one can really say at this point is that a very complex pattern will be unfolding and each run is most definitely going to change, sometimes in minor ways that end up having huge implications (on whether or not we have crazy cold and snow or not). Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 It doesn’t concern you that the ensembles are based on the old GFS? No. The GFS ensemble looks just like the EPS has been looking for days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 00z ECMWF Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I think all one can really say at this point is that a very complex pattern will be unfolding and each run is most definitely going to change, sometimes in minor ways that end up having huge implications (on whether or not we have crazy cold and snow or not). I think the strong -PNA will trump everything in the end. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Looks better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Canadian ensembles So are these based on the old GEM? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 So are these based on the old GEM?The old GEM is in French. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 It doesn’t concern you that the ensembles are based on the old GFS?Although it is still based on the old GFS, it was upgraded this summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The old GEM is in French.What? LOL 6z GFS in 3 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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