December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS rolling out now. Please don't show anything wacky this time 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5

 

 

00z

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 ehhhhhh

 

 

 

00z

[Cloud]

Starting to get into that funky range it has been showing all day now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

So close to going into the cold pattern real fast like the 00z EURO....

[Meatyorologist]

Low in NE Alaska is much weaker than 00z (991mb vs 985mb) and blocking seems more northerly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Starting to get into that funky range it has been showing all day now. 

I did some research awhile back checking the GFS Op at Day 4, 5, 6, 7 over the past 12-18 runs. It seemed run to run consistency fell off quickly at Day 5. Day 6 was bad. Day 7 was laughable.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5

 

 

 

00z

[Cloud]

I did some research awhile back checking the GFS Op at Day 4, 5, 6, 7 over the past 12-18 runs. It seemed run to run consistency fell off quickly at Day 5. Day 6 was bad. Day 7 was laughable.

This is the new op model right? I'm curious if they're still trying to figure it out. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 evolving similarly as the atrociously awful 00z outlier

 

[Cloud]

It doesn't look like it's wanting to cave. Unbelievable. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 really close to snow.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

It doesn't look like it's wanting to cave. Unbelievable. 

Not yet. By Monday 00z I think we'll see the all Op runs get it together. Cautiously optimistic.

[Gradient Keeper]

Long range trying to get there

 

Day 8

 

 

00z

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

 

00z

[Gradient Keeper]

Aside from that hiccup Day 6.5 to 8 looks like the GFS might be slowly gradually moving towards the EURO, but only one run so can only speculate.

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto the GEFS.... ah heck may as well take a peek ~ Every model rider addict

[Cloud]

Aside from that hiccup Day 6.5 to 8 looks like the GFS might be slowly gradually moving towards the EURO, but only one run so can only speculate.

 

So much better than what we saw from 00z. Freaks me out for a moment there from 6.5 to 8 since it look like it might continue the trend. 

Let's hope this continues. 

[Gradient Keeper]

This is the new op model right? I'm curious if they're still trying to figure it out. 

I'm not sure if Pivotal is using the old GFS or FV3....

[Gradient Keeper]

This isn't based on this run. I hope people realize how tantalizing close we are to going right into a cold, arctic pattern in 7-9 days. We just need the kona low and our offshore ridge to flatten/back to the west a notch more. Do I expect it? not super confident on that, but it's not impossible.

[Cloud]

Despite the improvement, the 10 day snow map is still pretty abysmal on the GFS 06z. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Despite the improvement, the 10 day snow map is still pretty abysmal on the GFS 06z. 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Clown range trying to deliver

 

[Cloud]

Clown range trying to deliver

 

 

End of clown range keeping the chilly weather around. Could potentially setup for a nice January starting week 2. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS looks real promising and a touch closer to an arctic blast if we improve tilt, amplification

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yakima mean temp down to -9c and surface temps are cold and look how many members are down to -10c or colder yet. Wow. SERIOUS potential ahead!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles

A step in the right direction. Once we lose those 'warmer' -4c to 0c> members the mean will dip even further! YES! C'MON!!!!

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

EPS is starting to look like last February in the long range.    Very strong signal for the 10-15 day period.

 

This IS coming... lest any of you doubt.

 

[MossMan]

There is the dive off the cliff that I have been waiting for!!

[Esquimalt]

The 12Z merges the two troughs making it almost look like an AR pattern incoming. Unbelievable

[Jesse]

The 12Z merges the two troughs making it almost look like an AR pattern incoming. Unbelievable

Isn’t the 12z out to like hour 48?

[ShawniganLake]

Isn’t the 12z out to like hour 48?

There is a big AR pointed at Northern bc coast for the end of the week

[Jesse]

Was a big fan of the 06z overall. Ensembles remain solid as well.

[Esquimalt]

There is a big AR pointed at Northern bc coast for the end of the week

I find it pretty unbelievable the run to run variation on the short term

[TT-SEA]

I find it pretty unbelievable the run to run variation on the short term

 

 

Really tough transition pattern for the models to handle apparently...

 

00Z GFS for Saturday:

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run:

 

[FroYoBro]

Yeah, that first trough next weekend is really delayed on this run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The operational really keeps delaying everything.