December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Eurasia/NW-Pacific wavetrain looks more amplified. Let’s see if this helps amplify the NPAC in the long range.

 

Test case for upstream drivers, perhaps.

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

Offshore ridge, Central Pacific energy may be trending further west at Day 5.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Phil]

Man Siberia/Scandinavia is perfect this run. I think?

 

Really eager to see D10-16.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 past 4 runs. I don't hate this trend to flatten the ridge over us sooner.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We need some snow for the llamas!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[The Swamp]

we really need some blocking in the SE

[MossMan]

Too bad the moisture moved through so quickly, the snow was coming down at a good clip for a few minutes. Has stopped and the temp is back to 36 after dipping to 34.

[Gradient Keeper]

Too far west.... initially

[High Desert Mat?]

What we really need is the pattern to move into the 5-6 day range. It’s been two weeks of saying, “day 10 is really going places, I like what I see”. Just sayin

[GHweatherChris]

What we really need is the pattern to move into the 5-6 day range. It’s been two weeks of saying, “day 10 is really going places, I like what I see”. Just sayin

Even the same comments about day 7, just sayin.

[El_Nina]

Down to 33. Hoping for some precip later, TWC says a mix is possible. Will be staying up for that and watching the map analysis, thank you

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 34F so that will get us back closer to average for the date. Maybe we can pull off a freeze?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is much worse in the mid-range. 

[MossMan]

[Gradient Keeper]

Typical model noise. One run taketh away, another giveth. Onto the 00z GEM, 00z GEFS, and EURO of course.

[Phil]

Ffs. According to the GFS, the longitude of the wavebreak matters more than its latitude/amplification (initially).

 

So I guess if it’s too far west, the result could be a GOA trough split w/ the Arctic air flying off into eastern Canada.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally gets there. We are losing that first trough around the 4th though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ffs. According to the GFS, the longitude of the wavebreak matters more than its latitude/amplification (initially).

 

So I guess if it’s too far west, the result could be a GOA trough split w/ the Arctic air flying off into eastern Canada.

The block can't be any further west than 160 W typically.

[Jesse]

Finally gets there. We are losing that first trough around the 4th though.

 

Going the way of the trough on the 30th.

[MossMan]

Tonight’s snow flurry is warning shot #1!

[Deweydog]

Pattern at 264 hours looks pretty similar to the pattern right meow.

[Jesse]

Pattern at 264 hours looks pretty similar to the pattern right meow.

Chilly, lowland snow flurries in favored locations!

[Phil]

This run has a much weaker PV vs 18z, though. That alone should make middle latitude cold easier to come by in the long run, all else being equal of course.

[GHweatherChris]

Tonight’s snow flurry is warning shot #1!

I can't believe I am ahead of you on the snow front.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ALERT

 

[MossMan]

ALERT

 

Looks kind of dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUGENEEEEEEE

This is almost a foot of snow there in 6 hours actually. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

SNOW !!!!

[seattleweatherguy]

36 with a dp of 33 so close to snow but.....rain

[luvssnow_spokane]

ALERT

 

[GHweatherChris]

ALERT

 

That seems to be the norm now.

[Gradient Keeper]

The joys of model riding. The ensembles could be further east, or too far west. Models tomorrow night could be historically cold, or not. You just never know! Those folks using the GOLU are laughing at us. Laughing hard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run really wants to get things going. Pretty funny when comparing to the massively blocky 12z and 18z runs. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Exciting day with the models today. The last two GFS runs were quite good, the EPS continues to slowly improve, and the EPS control is coming up great on every run now. Interestingly all models agree this will be almost entirely a PNA block when it develops. Those are much more more likely to bring significant snow than EPO blocks. BTW the EPS is going below -2 on the mean for PNA now.

 

I'm all in on this as I have been for weeks now. The writing is on the wall.

This.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ALERT

 

Somebody call Tiger!

[Gradient Keeper]

TIGER !!!!