December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Remember when things kept trending colder as we got closer to them back in October? Maybe there can be more of the same in January.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z runs tonight all eyes on Day 6-8 to see IF we have a ridge merger, how much the ridge over us flattens, and where the eventual block begins to develop in proximity to 160 W. We are an eyelash away from greatness. Maybe two eyelashes.

[AbbyJr]

         Its only the control run but still nice to look at.

 

 

[Deweydog]

BB was talking more about the propensity for clown range insanity with the old models. The models are a lot less likely now to show unrealistic, cracked-out solutions in la la land - I'm sure statistical variability is a larger component to their programming now.

 

But they are still very inaccurate more than a week out, despite spitting out fewer orgasmic maps.

I’m pretty sure that was exactly what I was referring to.

 

And yes, Flatiron. They are indeed still quite unreliable beyond seven days. I concur. There is considerable evidence that you are right about that. Spot on.

[Blizzard777]

Wow, 35*/28* today!  
busy couple days so will need to sit down and catch up on the models later on

[TT-SEA]

Wow, 35*/28* today!  

busy couple days so will need to sit down and catch up on the models later on

 

'Tis the season for mucky inversions!

 

45/29 in North Bend and it looks like it was sunny or partly sunny most of the day with no haze.  

 

Still looks nice even after sunset...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

 

Lock it in.

 

Nice cascade snow, but some of the numbers east of look a little on the low side.

[Phil]

I know, I know...nothing good is possible with a +NAO.

Not the problem re: 12z Euro. That was a prolific wavebreak but it was too far West, pretty much due north of Japan.

 

By contrast, the 18z GFS breaks the wave farther east and produces a much more interesting solution.

[Phil]

Quite the expansive block on the 18z. Too bad it's not more amplified.

 

Would be much better if it could nose into Alaska. Might eventually do that later in the month irrespective of this opening shot.

[Phil]

Big snowstorm for the Midwest. Shocker.

In other words: Back to normal for every winter over the last 2+ million years.

[Phil]

The weeklies have some incredibly amplified/frigid members in the long range.

 

They do have a propensity to under-propagate forcing from the IPWP, but an amplified -EPO/-PNA like that is not out of the question if the IO forcing really does go dormant as projected.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z runs tonight all eyes on Day 6-8 to see IF we have a ridge merger, how much the ridge over us flattens, and where the eventual block begins to develop in proximity to 160 W. We are an eyelash away from greatness. Maybe two eyelashes.

We are only 1 llama eyelash away, but 8 human eyelashes. It is all a matter of perspective.

[Timmy Supercell]

We are only 1 llama eyelash away, but 8 human eyelashes. It is all a matter of perspective.

 

[AbbyJr]

The weeklies have some incredibly amplified/frigid members in the long range.

 

They do have a propensity to under-propagate forcing from the IPWP, but an amplified -EPO/-PNA like that is not out of the question if the IO forcing really does go dormant as projected.

In other words, anything is possible at this point.

[Front Ranger]

I’m pretty sure that was exactly what I was referring to.

 

And yes, Flatiron. They are indeed still quite unreliable beyond seven days. I concur. There is considerable evidence that you are right about that. Spot on.

It may sound like splitting hairs, but just because they're not as extreme now in the long range scenarios doesn't mean they're more accurate. Whether it's simply because of higher resolution or whatever.

 

That was the point I was trying to make - based off something said in the discussion previously.

[Front Ranger]

Not the problem re: 12z Euro. That was a prolific wavebreak but it was too far West, pretty much due north of Japan.

 

By contrast, the 18z GFS breaks the wave farther east and produces a much more interesting solution.

I agree that the 18z was better. I was just comparing the Euro to prior runs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 here with a dew point of 23 and precip not far away I'm thinking snow here is a good bet.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, 35*/28* today!  

busy couple days so will need to sit down and catch up on the models later on

 

I sure wasn't expecting it to be so cold today.  Pretty impressive!  We had a rare situation with an inversion in a already chilly air mass.

[Guest CulverJosh]

In other words: Back to normal for every winter over the last 2+ million years.

Go home.

[seattleweatherguy]

32 here with a dew point of 23 and precip not far away I'm thinking snow here is a good bet.

Nice. Your probably the few western puget sound locations that will get snow tonight

[snow_wizard]

Exciting day with the models today.  The last two GFS runs were quite good, the EPS continues to slowly improve, and the EPS control is coming up great on every run now.  Interestingly all models agree this will be almost entirely a PNA block when it develops.  Those are much more more likely to bring significant snow than EPO blocks. BTW the EPS is going below -2 on the mean for PNA now.

 

I'm all in on this as I have been for weeks now.  The writing is on the wall.

[Phil]

Go home.

What does your secret HAARP source say now?

 

Was supposed to be before Christmas. Then New Years.

I’m tired of the punting, brah.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I had a high of 36 here today. AWESOME!!

[Phil]

Poleward transport of -AAM at of top of the stratosphere should begin tightening, the. weakening the upper portion of the stratospheric-PV next month. Clearly evident now.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Phil is the boss.

[GHweatherChris]

32 here with a dew point of 23 and precip not far away I'm thinking snow here is a good bet.

I have a tiny feeling we see a brief spell of wet snow here, wind is still out of the east and it is 36 with DP 28, will depend on precip rates for sure.

[Guest CulverJosh]

He doesn’t understand our climate.

 

His posts are laughable here. Been watching it for years.

 

 

I bet he can tell me why it snowed here yesterday. Twenty something narcissist. A boy.

[Phil]

Admission: I’m Josh’s secret source. I disguised my voice as his fishing buddy’s, hacked their web chat, and decided to troll the fück out of his dumb, f*t azz.

 

Sorry all. Technically my fault.

[Timmy]

He doesn’t understand our climate.

 

His posts are laughable here. Been watching it for years.

.

pot meet kettle

[Guest CulverJosh]

Admission: I’m Josh’s secret source. I disguised my voice as his fishing buddy’s, hacked their web chat, and decided to troll the fück out of his dumb, f*t azz.

 

Sorry all. Technically my fault.

Not gonna bite. You’re too sweet, Phil. Glad you love my fat azz.

 

You wish of course. I am too picky for you.

 

Happy holidays everyone.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Btw. Mat just told me he is on moderation. What the hell Fred? Did he say something?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Never mind. He wasn’t logged in. Lol.

[snow_wizard]

Talk about everything going our way to make this work!

 

 

[Phil]

Not gonna bite. You’re too sweet, Phil. Glad you love my fat azz.

 

You wish of course. I am too picky for you.

 

Happy holidays everyone.

I like big butts and a cannot lie..

 

..actually I’m a leg man an I definitely can lie, but what’s the difference?

[ShawniganLake]

Never mind. He wasn’t logged in. Lol.

Stop spamming the forum. 5 posts in 20 minutes from you and nothing weather related.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I like big butts and a cannot lie..

..actually I’m a leg man an I definitely can lie, but what’s the difference?

Sir mix alot grew up about 15 miles from my house lol. I met him back in 1989 he was a cool guy. Also had about 15lbs of gold around his neck.

[High Desert Mat?]

I like big butts and a cannot lie..

 

..actually I’m a leg man an I definitely can lie, but what’s the difference?

I’m a leg guy too. Personalities always are a distant fourth. Lol

[Guest CulverJosh]

pot meet kettle

It’s funny you post this, but you honestly add very little.

 

Not like I care like the celibates here do.

 

We obviously have awesome personal lives. Let’s laugh at guys like Phil who really have nothing else to do. The guy is in Cabin John, MD.....and he posts in a mainly Washington/Oregon forum. Is he for real??? Lol.

 

I will hug my wife and cuddle my 4 pets. Probably send my mom, mother in law, and stepmom all lovely messages. Along with my 5 nieces and nephews and my daughter and soon to be second daughter.

 

You go Phil.

[Requiem]

Really, I don’t understand why, of all things in the world, a weather forum needs to get so personal. Seriously people, let’s just appreciate what may or may not come and go with the flow. Trite platitude, but apt IMO

[Phil]

Sir mix alot grew up about 15 miles from my house lol. I met him back in 1989 he was a cool guy. Also had about 15lbs of gold around his neck.

Coolio. So that’s 15 miles from where you live now or where you grew up?