December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

I’d take 15 inches!

I would take a 2” base!

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like there is a consensus for the pattern to develop around Day 7. It all depends on where that block sets up and its configuration. There is still quite a bit for models to resolve over the next 2-3 days, so expect some fluctuations with the block position and amplification/tilt of it. Things are looking pretty decent, but I haven't seen anything yet that really excites me which is mainly due to the block being either a touch too far to the west and not yet seeing favorable tilt. Not yet. Should we end up with a Goliath block as depicted with a Kona Low/Southeast ridge combo the potential is quite high for a cold pattern and this is how we get to our memorable blasts/snowstorms of the past. Cautiously optimistic.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes

[Deweydog]

528 line RIGHT OVER MY HOUSE at 198 hours.

[Deweydog]

I think Bainbridge brought this up last night, but this does kinda feel like a pattern that years ago (not entirely sure how many) would have likely been handled with a lot more adrenaline-dumping volatility.

 

Is it better this way? Hard to say.

[FroYoBro]

I think Bainbridge brought this up last night, but this does kinda feel like a pattern that years ago (not entirely sure how many) would have likely been handled with a lot more adrenaline-dumping volatility.

 

Is it better this way? Hard to say.

Yes, It is better this way.

[MossMan]

It looks like there is a consensus for the pattern to develop around Day 7. It all depends on where that block sets up and its configuration. There is still quite a bit for models to resolve over the next 2-3 days, so expect some fluctuations with the block position and amplification/tilt of it. Things are looking pretty decent, but I haven't seen anything yet that really excites me which is mainly due to the block being either a touch too far to the west and not yet seeing favorable tilt. Not yet. Should we end up with a Goliath block as depicted with a Kona Low/Southeast ridge combo the potential is quite high for a cold pattern and this is how we get to our memorable blasts/snowstorms of the past. Cautiously optimistic.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes

As long as we have that cold air somewhat close to us we will have a chance!

[MossMan]

I think Bainbridge brought this up last night, but this does kinda feel like a pattern that years ago (not entirely sure how many) would have likely been handled with a lot more adrenaline-dumping volatility.

 

Is it better this way? Hard to say.

We would have been in MRF heaven.

[bainbridgekid]

I think Bainbridge brought this up last night, but this does kinda feel like a pattern that years ago (not entirely sure how many) would have likely been handled with a lot more adrenaline-dumping volatility.

 

Is it better this way? Hard to say.

I think even 2 or 3 years ago we would have already had multiple runs showing -15 850mb temps. They've clearly made big updates to the long range resolution and its handling of terrain.

 

It was a wild time.

[Deweydog]

We would have been in MRF heaven.

That thing was a barrel of ADHD monkeys. Good times.

[Front Ranger]

You’re crazy.

I know, I know...nothing good is possible with a +NAO.

[Prairiedog]

All of the tropospheric cold moves from Putin’s side of the pole to Trudeau’s and Trump’s, so that might not be the case. There could be a large pool of sub -40C 850mb temperatures building early in 2020..that can do crazy things to the wavetrain with time.

Putin's riding east hard!

[Front Ranger]

I think Bainbridge brought this up last night, but this does kinda feel like a pattern that years ago (not entirely sure how many) would have likely been handled with a lot more adrenaline-dumping volatility.

 

Is it better this way? Hard to say.

BB was talking more about the propensity for clown range insanity with the old models. The models are a lot less likely now to show unrealistic, cracked-out solutions in la la land - I'm sure statistical variability is a larger component to their programming now.

 

But they are still very inaccurate more than a week out, despite spitting out fewer orgasmic maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is a little meh. But it is not bad. Would be pretty chilly at the surface. Heck today is pretty chilly at the surface. 36/27 here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is an insane block that sets up in the long range on the 18z. Completely shuts down the Pacific. Not super amplified, but I would not complain. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I think even 2 or 3 years ago we would have already had multiple runs showing -15 850mb temps. They've clearly made big updates to the long range resolution and its handling of terrain.

 

It was a wild time.

IIRC the latest GFS is run at a higher resolution all the way through, instead of just to 10 days. Or something like that

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A couple shots of lowland snow in the mid/long range on the 18z.

 

All things considered the last couple runs have been pretty good, and the pattern shown starting next weekend even is pretty chilly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE is going to pull off a 41/25 today.

[FroYoBro]

Only got up to 40 here.

 

WINTER!

[TacomaWaWx]

I don't think Tacomawx was criticizing anyone for being either. Just questioning the relevance of posting thickness details for specific locations 300+ hours out.

exactly.

[TacomaWaWx]

High temp of 37 so far in Tacoma. Second sub 40 day of this winter.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It’s on weather models. Select eps 46 day, 5 day average 500mb, and choose Jan 18 and it should show up.

Finally found it, will have to explore the site a bit more.  Also has the 46 day PNA chart.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45/36 so far. Another positive departure. 40.5 avg which is a bit above normal again. Hopefully we can pull off a negative departure soon. This is #9 in a row.

[Front Ranger]

The 18z has easily the best setup yet with the developing offshore ridge at day 7.

[Prairiedog]

31f this am.  Topped out at 40.  I'm sure a warm nose is already poised in the 10 day ready to move over Andrew and me.  Then it will hit El Nina and then DJ.  K%% will get a warm south wind.  It will be all snow from the Columbia River north. 

Sorry, post Christmas withdrawls.  I think I'll put my new knife sharpener for my salmon fillet knives up for a few days.  Gonna try hard to stay inside of about 4 days this winter.  Maybe even 2 days.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Regardless of what people think or post the thought police have been in full force lately. Hopefully it snows everywhere soon.

I didn't even say anything like that at all. Wasn't trying to be the "thought police". It was you and other people who took it that way. We all know that maps past 10 days rarely verify how is saying that being the "thought police"?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Big snowstorm for the Midwest. Shocker.

[TacomaWaWx]

Either way... starting to look like January should start off somewhat chilly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Operational is a bit of an outlier on the cold side.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Temps 5-7 days trending down. Should be some changes.

[Gradient Keeper]

Finally found it, will have to explore the site a bit more.  Also has the 46 day PNA chart.

 

pna.png

-PNA into February. Crazy potential ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS a step backwards. The 500mb pattern isn't far off we just need amplification, block bit further east with tilt...

[ShawniganLake]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Lock it in.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sorry. I should have said relevance police.

either way my apologies I shouldn't have been short with you over that. I do my best to not be "the thought police" and try to be cool with everyone and I shouldn't have been rude sorry.

[Gradient Keeper]

New weeklies out looks very promising. Very good potential that January turns out outstanding.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Day 8-14 Analog Composite looks much better. 500mb pattern is much improved. IF this is how things play out January could be awesome!

 

[ShawniganLake]

either way my apologies I shouldn't have been short with you over that. I do my best to not be "the thought police" and try to be cool with everyone and I shouldn't have been rude sorry.

No worries. It wasn’t a big deal either way.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 3 hours 24 minutes

00z GEFS in 4 hours 55 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 39 minutes

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄ C'MON!!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Putin's riding east hard!

Yeah and he's looking right at us as he does.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Quite the expansive block on the 18z. Too bad it's not more amplified.

 

That is an insane block that sets up in the long range on the 18z. Completely shuts down the Pacific. Not super amplified, but I would not complain.

 

It's trying!