December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

[GHweatherChris]

[Jesse]

The Euro trades off pretty much anything interesting in the believable range for what looks like it might be something enticing by day 10.

 

I’ll take it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Euro trades off pretty much anything interesting in the believable range for what looks like it might be something enticing by day 10.

 

I’ll take it!

 

At day 9 GFS and GEM are WAY better. 

[Phil]

Epic wavebreak in the NW-Pacific @ D7 on the ECMWF, but it occurs way too far West.

 

Throws the blocking up over NE-Siberia instead of AK.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Phil says no. Shut the forum down until November 2020/21.

Based on El-nino forecasts it’ll probably be worse then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Based on El-nino forecasts it’ll probably be worse then.

 

The long term ENSO products are trending hard towards a Nina or negative neutral. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Phil created the wave train. ****!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The Euro trades off pretty much anything interesting in the believable range for what looks like it might be something enticing by day 10.

 

I’ll take it!

 

Temps of 41F at 4AM on Jan 5...riveting.

[Jesse]

Temps of 41F at 4AM on Jan 5...riveting.

Pretty unlike you to be so negative.

 

Bad sign.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temps of 41F at 4AM on Jan 5...riveting.

 

Of the big 3, the EURO is clearly the worst for us at day 10.

[Phil]

The long term ENSO products are trending hard towards a Nina or negative neutral.

The CFS was forecasting a weak niña at one point last summer/fall. Oops

 

Hard to say what 2020/21 will do ENSO-wise. Multiyear niñas are favored during the rise out of solar minimum but the question is does it establish next year or 2021/22? While I could see it going either way in theory, the failure of 2019/20 to develop into a full fledged niño may hint at the later start time, especially since the IPWP remains extended as a result of the “half niño” or “niño modoki” regime currently present.

 

The developing -QBO under the nadir of the Smin will also try to prevent a Niña from developing in 2020. That doesn’t preclude it (see 2007) but the cases that saw niñas develop with similar QBOs featured retracted IPWPs, unlike their current IPWP, which is extended.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS was forecasting a weak niña at one point last summer/fall. Oops

 

Hard to say what 2020/21 will do ENSO-wise. Multiyear niñas are favored during the rise out of solar minimum but the question is does it establish next year or 2021/22? The failure of 2019/20 to develop into a full fledged niño may hint at the later start time, especially since the IPWP remains extended.

 

The developing -QBO under the nadir of the Smin will also try to prevent a Niña from developing in 2020. That doesn’t preclude it (see 2007) but the cases that saw niñas develop with similar QBOs featured retracted IPWPs, unlike their current IPWP, which is extended.

 

Would be nice to have a legit Nina again someday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would be nice to have a legit Nina again someday.

 

When was the last one? 98-99?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to quantify just how disappointing the EURO was. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When was the last one? 98-99?

 

2010/11 and 2011-12.

[Jesse]

The CFS was forecasting a weak niña at one point last summer/fall. Oops

Hard to say what 2020/21 will do ENSO-wise. Multiyear niñas are favored during the rise out of solar minimum but the question is does it establish next year or 2021/22? While I could see it going either way in theory, the failure of 2019/20 to develop into a full fledged niño may hint at the later start time, especially since the IPWP remains extended as a result of the “half niño” or “niño modoki” regime currently present.

The developing -QBO under the nadir of the Smin will also try to prevent a Niña from developing in 2020. That doesn’t preclude it (see 2007) but the cases that saw niñas develop with similar QBOs featured retracted IPWPs, unlike their current IPWP, which is extended.

The more I think about it the more I realize that I’ve never really seen you predict a Niña, at least in the short range.

 

They are always 3-5 years away.

[Phil]

There’s a case to be made that the +QBO last summer is what prevented the development of a full fledged canonical style niño this winter (warm/stable tropical Pacific, off-equator convection, broad ITCZ/z-cells). I thought it would help quash intraseasonal variability hence prevent the evolution away from the background state..which it did, but while this was true of the IPWP heat engine itself, the IOD took over for the Pacific when the +QBO thermal profile began interfering with the +ENSO WHEM cell network.

 

So in theory, the QBO flip to negative in 2020 could enable a transition in the IPWP background state hence the ENSO state, or it could promote an amplification of the background IPWP/ENSO state already present when it does flip.

 

Not safe to make a call until Feb/Mar. If there are still WWBs ongoing by the equinox and/or downwelling OKWs present, then a niño is probably more likely. If not, then I’d lean Niña. Of course, the timing/dynamic nature of the final warming in the stratosphere factors into this as well.

[Perturbed Member]

No, not really even close. We had some drizzle and 34 degrees on Christmas eve. Our only snow so far was the day before Thanksgiving. 

 

I had noticed snow down to about 2000ft or so to my west in the  north coast range, non sticking snow at 1500 ft. Thought maybe you might have seen a few flakes too.

[Winterdog]

What a bunch of Debbie downers! Take heart. The EPS is consistently showing a -3 to -4C 850’s in the clown range with some orgasmic members. Oh and I forgot, it’s been very consistent too.

[Phil]

The more I think about it the more I realize that I’ve never really seen you predict a Niña, at least in the short range.

 

They are always 3-5 years away.

Bro, the opposite is true. You even trolled me when I predicted a multiyear niña for 2016/17 - 2017/18 after that seemingly endless niño stretch.

 

And last year I was skeptical of the niño verifying, and it ended up happening anyway. Also I under-shot the super niño in 2015/16.

[Timmy Supercell]

literally the day I leave for Hawaii...

 

These things have a tendency of actually happening 

[Timmy Supercell]

2010/11 and 2011-12.

 

Were those both significant Nina's or just moderate? I forget.

[Front Ranger]

SEA hit 30 this morning, their 4th freeze of the season and first in December. A near-Christmas miracle!

[Phil]

Bro, the opposite is true. You even trolled me when I predicted a multiyear niña for 2016/17 - 2017/18 after that seemingly endless niño stretch.

 

And last year I was skeptical of the niño verifying, and it ended up happening anyway. Also I under-shot the super niño in 2015/16.

Case in point: The one single year I’m more “pro-niño” than the consensus, Jesse tries to rewrite history.

 

He really doesn’t tolerate ideas contrary to his own.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SEA hit 30 this morning, their 4th freeze of the season and first in December. A near-Christmas miracle!

 

That is pretty sad. SLE had their 9th of the month this morning and they are running a +2.0 departure. 

[Front Ranger]

Daily fuzz has been inconsistent of late. 

 

CFS-lite.

[MossMan]

Phil is talking to himself again.

 

In other news it is up to a whopping 35 degrees here!

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Really a very decent day all things considered.

[Timmy Supercell]

Dec 29th shows a little more snow occurring here in the forecast, day before my birthday. There's actually been quite a few decent snows I remember on that exact day over the years. 2009 in Hillsboro (3-4"), 2010 in K-Falls (6"+ and blizzard), and I think at the end of 2012 was a

not too bad snow event too.

 

End of 2015 dried out right before January however there were ground depths of 15-18" in town around my birthday that year.

[Front Ranger]

Tough to please people around here! You get s**t for being too negative and s**t for being positive about the long range

 

I don't think Tacomawx was criticizing anyone for being either. Just questioning the relevance of posting thickness details for specific locations 300+ hours out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think Tacomawx was criticizing anyone for being either. Just questioning the relevance of posting thickness details for specific locations 300+ hours out.

 

Unfortunately they have no chance of verifying of course, but we have to find something to track.... Or maybe talk about January 1950 again. 

[Phil]

One thing about the MJO wave through the Maritime continent that should be noted is that there’s no corresponding subsidence across the W-IO and/or dateline on most guidance, thanks to the (dying) +IOD and/or the emergent state. It’s a subsidence center over the E-IO until the wave enters the WPAC.

 

So technically there is destructive interference present..in all likelyhood that wave will amplify closer to 140E or 150E as opposed to 120E if it’s of the projected magnitude, eventually dominating the WPAC to the eastern portion of the maritime continent in mid/late January.

 

Historically that type of evolution has correlated to extreme pattern amplification over the WHEM and late winter perturbations to the polar vortex, which fits with the current QBO/MQI climo. Food for thought?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really a very decent day all things considered.

 

How can you be so glib when we have massive income inequality in this country!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One thing about the MJO wave through the Maritime continent that should be noted is that there’s no corresponding subsidence across the W-IO and/or dateline on most guidance, thanks to the (dying) +IOD. It’s a subsidence center over the E-IO until the wave enters the WPAC.

 

So technically there is destructive interference present..in all likelyhood that wave will amplify closer to 140E or 150E as opposed to 120E if it’s of the projected magnitude, eventually dominating the WPAC to the eastern portion of the maritime continent in mid/late January.

 

Historically that type of evolution has correlated to extreme pattern amplification over the WHEM and late winter perturbations to the polar vortex, which fits with the current QBO/MQI climo. Food for thought?

 

January 1930 redux.

[Front Ranger]

When was the last one? 98-99?

 

What do you consider legitimate? 2017-18 reached moderate status, albeit just barely.

[ShawniganLake]

I don't think Tacomawx was criticizing anyone for being either. Just questioning the relevance of posting thickness details for specific locations 300+ hours out.

Regardless of what people think or post the thought police have been in full force lately. Hopefully it snows everywhere soon.

[Deweydog]

[Front Ranger]

Maybe I'm crazy, but this Euro at day 10 looks closer to delivering than any of the past few Euro runs.

 

Looking at the large-scale anomaly features across the NH.