December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Phil would not like the ENSO match there. 

 

Fine. 1905-06. (Nino!!)

[Cloud]

The potential is there for January. Just a matter of getting it within the believably range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raging Nino...

 

[umadbro]

Raging Nino...

 

Yeah but, hammers dropping. Just BELIEVE!

[Deweydog]

Biggest post-Christmas Euro so far this year rolling out RIGHT NOW!

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW!

[Deweydog]

OH HOLY NIGHT!

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles already developing the pattern just after Day 7.

 

Here is Day 9. Nice amplification

[bainbridgekid]

Hard to tell for sure but it looks like every single 00z Ensemble member drops to at least -7 at some point between day 8 and 12.

[snow_wizard]

Canadian ensembles already developing the pattern just after Day 7.

 

Here is Day 9. Nice amplification

 

I'm wondering how much longer it will be before we start seeing some epic operational runs.  The players are all showing up now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Best ensembles yet. Timing has moved up.

 

00z CMCE. Slide that block a bit to the east, a bit better tilt and we'll see a big cold snap, arctic blast with reloads.

 

I'm trying to post the loop, but I'm getting this error.

 

floop-cmce-2019122600.500h_anom.na(1).gif

No file was selected for upload

 

[bainbridgekid]

I'm wondering how much longer it will be before we start seeing some epic operational runs. The players are all showing up now.

The model updates the last few years have certainly cut way down on the frequency of epic long range runs. Certainly gives it a bit more credence when they do start to show up.

 

Part of me misses the nearly daily excitement of an epic blast showing up a couple weeks out, but in the end I'll take the increased accuracy.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm wondering how much longer it will be before we start seeing some epic operational runs.  The players are all showing up now.

Not long now for sure. Wait until you see Day 11-16. Real promising.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 8

 

That's different. The energy didn't cut between the two ridges. Kona Low, Merger Day 9?

 

[High Desert Mat?]

Yeah but, hammers dropping. Just BELIEVE!

2nd year!!! What do you want? Second ninos usually are the death warrant. Looks to be the theme. Sorry fellas, maybe next year.

[snow_wizard]

00z ECMWF Day 8

 

That's different. The energy didn't cut between the two ridges. Kona Low, Merger Day 9?

 

 

Nice balance between the two high pressure cells.  That's usually a good sign.

[Gradient Keeper]

 Day 8 past 2 runs 00z tonight, last night

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The model updates the last few years have certainly cut way down on the frequency of epic long range runs. Certainly gives it a bit more credence when they do start to show up.

 

Part of me misses the nearly daily excitement of an epic blast showing up a couple weeks out, but in the end I'll take the increased accuracy.

 

I totally hear you on this.  I am much less skeptical now when the models show something big coming than a few years ago.  It was fun in the old days though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 Close!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[umadbro]

I keep reading that everything is about to happen. Yet nothing ever appears. But when nothing appearing is mentioned we keep being told to just wait. It's been fun. Including culverjosh sensitivity while calling people sensitive. This forum is nothing short of entertaining.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 not so great, block develops too far west. EPS may look nothing like that though.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I keep reading that everything is about to happen. Yet nothing ever appears. But when nothing appearing is mentioned we keep being told to just wait. It's been fun. Including culverjosh sensitivity while calling people sensitive. This forum is nothing short of entertaining.

Nobody at all has said that it is "about to happen". Everything has been about possibilities down the road. Top much hype for that? Sure. Too much wishcasting?

Sure, but all of this is part of the fun of being a weather geek.

[Gradient Keeper]

I want to stay up for 6z, but just too exhausted....

[umadbro]

Nobody at all has said that it is "about to happen". Everything has been about possibilities down the road. Top much hype for that? Sure. Too much wishcasting?

Sure, but all of this is part of the fun of being a weather geek.

Yep, not one person has said that. Not one person at all.

[Deweydog]

This will go down as a COLD CHRISTMAS at PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Canadian ensembles

 

Day 7-16. Pretty decent. Nice southeast ridge.

 

[Jesse]

Yep, not one person has said that. Not one person at all.

You add so much to this forum.

[MossMan]

I keep reading that everything is about to happen. Yet nothing ever appears. But when nothing appearing is mentioned we keep being told to just wait. It's been fun. Including culverjosh sensitivity while calling people sensitive. This forum is nothing short of entertaining.

Useemadbro.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yep, not one person has said that. Not one person at all.

If you are talking about Josh, he never said it was about to happen. He claimed the models would show something in the near future, but never said cold or snow was imminent. Was always talking about that being in the long term. Literally nobody has said arctic air and snow was going to happen in the near term.

[MossMan]

Currently 30 and clear:

[GHweatherChris]

I'm wondering how much longer it will be before we start seeing some epic operational runs. The players are all showing up now.

What if the wrong players are the ones that end up showing up?

[Front Ranger]

The model updates the last few years have certainly cut way down on the frequency of epic long range runs. Certainly gives it a bit more credence when they do start to show up.

 

Part of me misses the nearly daily excitement of an epic blast showing up a couple weeks out, but in the end I'll take the increased accuracy.

Model verification scores are still woefully low past day 8. But, you're probably right that they are now a lot less prone to show wild, statistically unlikely solutions in la la land. Definitely something that can be programmed in.

[GHweatherChris]

If you are talking about Josh, he never said it was about to happen. He claimed the models would show something in the near future, but never said cold or snow was imminent. Was always talking about that being in the long term. Literally nobody has said arctic air and snow was going to happen in the near term.

Lol

[umadbro]

You add so much to this forum.

Thanks!

[Front Ranger]

What if the wrong players are the ones that end up showing up?

Beastmode will save winter.

[umadbro]

If you are talking about Josh, he never said it was about to happen. He claimed the models would show something in the near future, but never said cold or snow was imminent. Was always talking about that being in the long term. Literally nobody has said arctic air and snow was going to happen in the near term.

Yes I'm only talking about Josh. Only. No one else has said any of the things I've mentioned. Not one single person.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yes I'm only talking about Josh. Only. No one else has said any of the things I've mentioned. Not one single person.

Snow Wizard talks a lot about the long term. You know, day 10+. Clown range. I challenge you to show ONE post where someone was saying an arctic outbreak was going to happen within 5 days. Too much hype for the clown range? No doubt.

[umadbro]

Snow Wizard talks a lot about the long term. You know, day 10+. Clown range. I challenge you to show ONE post where someone was saying an arctic outbreak was going to happen within 5 days. Too much hype for the clown range? No doubt.

I challenge you to find where I've mentioned anyone said an Arctic outbreak was about to happen.

 

I've contributed folks. With real-time numbers, and radar images. Hell, the Saturday after Thanksgiving I got an inch of snow. Not my fault people read passed it. I really don't care. I do however enjoy the twisting of words people have when I go against the grain. Keep it up kids.

[Gradient Keeper]

You add so much to this forum.

Thanks, you too.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 51 minutes! C'MON!!!!