December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

There’s a dew-off brewing!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean bottoms out at -7.1C on the 3rd.

[Jesse]

So tell me how that was a great run? It actually has a pretty solid snow event up here with that trough. But any objective observer can see the run overall was not very cold. Open your eyes boy. 

 

All of the "cold" has been in the 240+ hour range the last few days, and there hasn't been much suggesting anything beyond some cold onshore flow at this point (which would be just fine with me anyway).

 

This run doesn't seem like too vast a departure from previous runs aside from the fact that the short term improved slightly, and the long range took some of the pure fantasy stuff down a few notches. General pattern looks the same.

[MossMan]

So tell me how that was a great run? It actually has a pretty solid snow event up here with that trough. But any objective observer can see the run overall was not very cold. Open your eyes boy.

Model noise. Follow the EPS.

 

Sincerely, Tim

[GHweatherChris]

If you're not on board, why not just shut the f*ck up instead of being a pessimist? It's that easy

Why would you waste your time on this post?

[TT-SEA]

Model noise. Follow the EPS.

 

Sincerely, Tim

 

 

This is true.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These ensembles!

[Jesse]

These ensembles!

 

Lyfe is good again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we get down to -5C on the ensembles for the first trough. Nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All of the "cold" has been in the 240+ hour range the last few days, and there hasn't been much suggesting anything beyond some cold onshore flow at this point (which would be just fine with me anyway).

 

This run doesn't seem like too vast a departure from previous runs aside from the fact that the short term improved slightly, and the long range took some of the pure fantasy stuff down a few notches. General pattern looks the same.

 

You should have posted this first. Good analysis. 

[Jesse]

You should have posted this first. Good analysis. 

 

My first post said TERRIBLE RUN, then I edited.

[Deweydog]

Let’s wait for the European before we panic, guys.

 

How was everyone’s Boxing Day?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One thing we can rule out is any arctic air. 

[Front Ranger]

All in all the 12z is probably the worst operational GFS run in the past 2-3 days. Aside from 6 hours of light snow in W. Washington and some 1000' snow levels for a day, it was pretty blah.

It's easily one of the best within 8 days.

 

Lol

[Jesse]

One thing we can rule out is any arctic air. 

 

This is coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM is cooler than the GFS operational for next weekend. 

[Front Ranger]

It's kinda cool that the GEFS is still run off the old GFS. Means we technically have model output through 10+ days from four different sources, instead of just the "big three".

[Timmy]

These ensembles!

are you banned from actually posting maps or something ?

[Jesse]

Quiet guys, I think Phil's about to set us all straight!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

are you banned from actually posting maps or something ?

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Front Ranger]

The GEM is cooler than the GFS operational for next weekend.

Struggles with ridge amplification, though.

 

Regardless, all models are trending better in the believable range. And the EPS is no longer trolling material.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Struggles with ridge amplification, though.

 

Regardless, all models are trending better in the believable range. And the EPS is no longer trolling material.

 

January 2008 redux. Meaningful amplification is sorely lacking right now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

37 and cloudy here this morning. Had some wet snow mixed with the rain for a bit last night in Tacoma after a 37/29 day yesterday. 0.11" of rain yesterday another 0.01" this morning.

[Deweydog]

Low solar.

[Phil]

The EPS has been consistent and the timing is moving up appropriately and the signal is getting stronger.

 

This is coming... any run that does not agree is just model noise.

 

Cool, I’d hit that pattern. Not cold here, but in January a gradient pattern is enough for snow.

 

Will happily take 4” of table scraps while Jim gets buried under two feet of powder.

[Prairiedog]

For 6 hours. Then it lifts the cold air north as a low develops offshore. 

And as I predicted when all this started to show up a few days ago , our warm nose will rule for us closer to the Cascades.  This one might be pretty fat.  Maybe we'll get lucky for an hour or two.  Everyone in the valley might get nosed. 

[Phil]

One thing we can rule out is any arctic air.

False.

 

Maybe in the near term we can rule it out. But the best potential is in the second half of January anyway.

[jakerepp]

Let’s wait for the European before we panic, guys.

 

How was everyone’s Boxing Day?

I threw some boxes away. 

Is that what you're supposed to do?

[Jesse]

And as I predicted when all this started to show up a few days ago , our warm nose will rule for us closer to the Cascades.  This one might be pretty fat.  Maybe we'll get lucky for an hour or two.  Everyone in the valley might get nosed.

 

What event are we talking about here?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

False.

 

Maybe between the 10th and the 20th. There is no sign of it before that. 

[Deweydog]

Cold onshore flow is generally just really modified Arctic air.

[Jesse]

False.

 

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If anyone has the analog composite maps for the 12z I would love to see them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Less onshore flow/1500ft snow levels at Andrew’s location that screws the rest of the PNW = bad run.

 

There was actually still plenty of that. It was just a bit warmer overall. In fact at times it was warmer than all of the ensembles. Try to make some sense plz. 

[FroYoBro]

I changed my profile picture to something more inspirational. 

 

IF we all work really hard, we have a chance to succeed (5 foot blizzard). 

 

Keep it up! 

[Prairiedog]

What event are we talking about here?

It was a map and comment Andrew had posted earlier.  "For 6 hours. Then it lifts the cold air north as a low develops offshore".  This happens to us a lot closer to the Cascades.  We'll have cold air in place and when a low develops and starts moving some moisture in, we get a layer of warmer air sandwiched in in the mid levels and kills our snow. 

[Deweydog]

If anyone has the analog composite maps for the 12z I would love to see them.

I have a feeling they include years when things happened.

[Jesse]

It was a map and comment Andrew had posted earlier. "For 6 hours. Then it lifts the cold air north as a low develops offshore".

Ah so the big January 5th Portland snow event everyone’s been buzzing about. Glad we are finally starting to nail down the surface details.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was a map and comment Andrew had posted earlier.  "For 6 hours. Then it lifts the cold air north as a low develops offshore".  This happens to us a lot closer to the Cascades.  We'll have cold air in place and when a low develops and starts moving some moisture in, we get a layer of warmer air sandwiched in in the mid levels and kills our snow. 

 

Yes, people thought there was going to be a "snow storm" for W. Washington, but it was just some brief light snow and then the developing low offshore brought in BSF.