December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Friday 12 AM - 6 AM

 

Strong winds for the Straits, Northwest Interior of Washington, Northern Puget Sound, Southwestern BC

 

 

[Requiem]

Friday 12 AM - 6 AM

 

Strong winds for the Straits, Northwest Interior of Washington, Northern Puget Sound, Southwestern BC

 

 

 

Move that thing a bit south and we're in business. Been way too long since an appreciable windstorm's hit PDX. 

 

Hmmm...wind, cold, snow, things are looking up it seems.

[MossMan]

Friday 12 AM - 6 AM

 

Strong winds for the Straits, Northwest Interior of Washington, Northern Puget Sound, Southwestern BC

 

 

It’s all because I test ran my generator and made sure all was a go for my mower plow today! You’re welcome!

[snow_wizard]

One thing that I like about recent model runs is the propensity to move moisture in with the cold troughs. The 00z ensembles show this as well as the operational. Nice to see cool/cold air while moisture is around. All too often we have one thing and not the other.

 

Of course details will change but it certainly does not look cold and bone dry by any means.

 

All models have been clear this will be more of a -PNA block than -EPO.  -PNA is snowier in general.

[Gradient Keeper]

IF that's a new trend that tonight's EURO showed to pinch the energy off with a Kona Low already at Day 7.... Look out!

[AbbyJr]

It’s gonna hit Washington state. Wind storm for Portland and snowstorm for BC.

We can hope. 

[AbbyJr]

All models have been clear this will be more of a -PNA block than -EPO.  -PNA is snowier in general.

Wouldn't a -PNA and -EPO combo give us a higher chance of a snowy pattern than just a -PNA in and of itself?

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and Canadian ensemble 500mb means both look better than the 12z.  They indicate the block will gradually strengthen and sharpen during the 10 to 15 day period.  This might be a case of starting out kind of borderline and then working into the really good stuff with time.  The EPS has been wanting to get things going a bit faster.  We will see if that holds true tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Wouldn't a -PNA and -EPO combo give us a higher chance of a snowy pattern than just a -PNA in and of itself?

 

Not sure.  I do know that Jan 1909 and Jan 1950 were the two cases of the lowest PNA in the 20th century and both events were epically cold and snowy.

[Requiem]

Outskirts of PDX should be kinda chilly tonight-- and there seems to be a line of showers coming through areas like Banks and Hillsboro with some moderate rain.

[El_Nina]

A sort of mix here. 34

[GHweatherChris]

Models still show nothing great for my backyard, next!

[Jesse]

Wouldn't a -PNA and -EPO combo give us a higher chance of a snowy pattern than just a -PNA in and of itself?

 

I would imagine an -EPO would generally mean drier all other things being equal.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33F and partly cloudy. Made it down to 32F back at 8:50 for freeze #30 on the season.  Night shift for sure tonight.  What's everybody smoking?

[snow_wizard]

Just maybe.

 

Almost all members had at least some snow.  The EPS has been the coldest and it's supposedly the best model out there.

 

Do you have to pay for access to this data?

[snow_wizard]

I would imagine an -EPO would generally mean drier all other things being equal.

 

Yeah...I always think dry cold with strong -EPO.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just maybe.

 

Do we have these for other towns down the I-5 corridor?

[snow_wizard]

33F and partly cloudy. Made it down to 32F back at 8:50 for freeze #30 on the season.  Night shift for sure tonight.  What's everybody smoking?

 

Nothing in over 20 years.  Maybe about 17 for cigarettes.

[ShawniganLake]

33F and partly cloudy. Made it down to 32F back at 8:50 for freeze #30 on the season. Night shift for sure tonight. What's everybody smoking?

I don’t smoke.

I’m guessing there will be lots of black ice on the roads tomorrow morning here.

[snow_wizard]

We have success on the EPS!  Nice improvement over the 12z even before day 10.  It's way sharper with the block than the operational models.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have success on the EPS!  Nice improvement over the 12z even before day 10.  It's way sharper with the block than the operational models.

 

Anybody have a map?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

We have success on the EPS!  Nice improvement over the 12z even before day 10.  It's way sharper with the block than the operational models.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Holy crap!

Vodka cold!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Holy crap!

 

Something brewing...

[MossMan]

Holy crap!

There we go!!!!

[GHweatherChris]

10 out days always looks good this time of year.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Great looking pattern, but the coldest air is still way up in mid B.C.  Temp anomalies are not that great.  Good enough for me, for sure, but not good enough for Western WA and OR.  At least at face value.  Lots of potential though.

 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nobody say a goddam thing.

[snow_wizard]

Another good run on the EPS control.  It gets us cold fairly early on.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 out days always looks good this time of year.

The map I posted was 8 days out.  But still a ways away, your'e right.  Potential, but not proven yet.

[snow_wizard]

10 out days always looks good this time of year.

 

You really get tiresome.

[MossMan]

10 out days always looks good this time of year.

The TigerWoodsLibido of Washington State!

[snow_wizard]

Another very good thing about the EPS is it lifts out the Eastern trough a lot faster than earlier runs.  That gets us going faster.

[MossMan]

Nobody say a goddam thing.

Oops...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Holy crap!

Low heights and cool temps, but not bitter cold arctic air.

[GHweatherChris]

You really get tiresome.

You as well, as well as others. And you know what, that is ok, we all don't have to be on board right now.

[GHweatherChris]

The TigerWoodsLibido of Washington State!

A realist?

[snow_wizard]

The EPS mean and control like the idea of a further amplifcation of the block late in the run.  This might be a classic where it gradually builds to the big stuff.

[snow_wizard]

Low heights and cool temps, but not bitter cold arctic air.

 

I was mostly referring to improvement and the fact it's an ensemble mean that far out.  The control has been quite cold on every run.