December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[jakerepp]

At very least, I'm definitely F5ing more often the last couple of days than I had been lately 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At very least, I'm definitely F5ing more often the last couple of days than I had been lately 

 

It's days like this that I wish we could somehow pair this topic with a Discord.

[Front Ranger]

The models aren’t placing “really” cold air over us. Looks to bottom out around -8 to -10c 850mb temps. The really cold stuff doesn’t really make it here.

Plenty cold for lowland snow.

[Timmy]

Plenty cold for lowland snow.

totally agree. I was refuting his statement that models are overdoing cold due to lack of amplification.

[bainbridgekid]

Plenty cold for lowland snow.

I'm definitely liking my chances of at the least some CZ snow sometime between January 3rd and 8th.

[Front Ranger]

totally agree. I was refuting his statement that models are overdoing cold due to lack of amplification.

Gotcha.

 

EPS moves the timing up nicely as well. Cold air is already moving in at day 7.

[TacomaWaWx]

Plenty cold for lowland snow.

Looks like marginal cold at the moment. Kind of like Feb 2018...not really super cold but enough to deliver 35 degree wet snow in the day and accumulating snow at night time possibly...that's how it was here locally anyways. Really too early to speculate specific info since it'll change several times likely over the next few days. Hopeful that it'll lead to something interesting though.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm only seeing chilly onshore flow on the EPS. Boring. Until we see heights build into southern Alaska as the 12z EURO Op showed there is nothing I'm excited about. I hope to see models/ensembles trend that way over the next 3-4 days. The block can't be further west than 160 W, period. We need amplification and better tilt at least have the block standing upright not leaning.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like marginal cold at the moment. Kind of like Feb 2018...not really super cold but enough to deliver 35 degree wet snow in the day and accumulating snow at night time possibly...that's how it was here locally anyways. Really too early to speculate specific info since it'll change several times likely over the next few days. Hopeful that it'll lead to something interesting though.

Glad this is showing up in January, and not the end of the season. Of course still a week away but I’m encouraged.

[Gradient Keeper]

Still plenty of time for improvements.

[Front Ranger]

I'm only seeing chilly onshore flow on the EPS. Boring. Until we see heights build into southern Alaska as the 12z EURO Op showed there is nothing I'm excited about. I hope to see models/ensembles trend that way over the next 3-4 days. The block can't be further west than 160 W, period. We need amplification and better tilt at least have the block standing upright not leaning.

Everything within 10 days is trending better in the models (comparing previous model runs by the same model) and the pattern development is moving up in timing. About all you can ask for at this point.

[Front Ranger]

Glad this is showing up in January, and not the end of the season. Of course still a week away but I’m encouraged.

Yeah, this pattern at this time of year compared to 6 weeks from now makes a big difference.

[The Swamp]

I organized my snow monster making gear in the garage.

[Blizzard777]

Still pretty early but feel like we may be headed somewhere interesting finally after being boring for awhile. Feels like the build up to something fun.

I’m also enjoying the model runs and the positive possibilities of some winter fun!  

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah, this pattern at this time of year compared to 6 weeks from now makes a big difference.

Big time.

 

It takes a fairly extreme pattern to deliver worthwhile snow once we get well into February.

 

In the heart of January all it takes is a decent trough, offshore flow with an approaching low, or a low to your South. Arctic air is obviously a nice bonus, but it's far from a requirement this time of year.

[Prairiedog]

Anyone get a Peloton shovel for Christmas?

[Timmy]

Anyone get a Peloton shovel for Christmas?

got my wife one

[Deweydog]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Again...nobody say a goddam thing.

[jakerepp]

I'm definitely liking my chances of at the least some CZ snow sometime between January 3rd and 8th.

I would be too...but I'll be in Boise Jan 1-5. Should definitely be nice and cold there, but I still prefer it when it happens in our neck of the woods. 

[Jesse]

I already broke the flatscreen monitor practicing with it for next month.

 

You must be planning to do some heavy duty frontloading.

[Deweydog]

You must be planning to do some heavy duty frontloading.

I wouldn’t count your trolls until they hatch, big guy...

[Gradient Keeper]

I stand corrected. I just saw a EPS 10-15 day map. It looked real good and very close to exceptional. Slight tinkering of the pattern mainly with tilt/amplification and we would see favorable heights over southern Alaska to drive the arctic air further south. Very encouraging.

[TacomaWaWx]

I stand corrected. I just saw a EPS 10-15 day map. It looked real good and very close to exceptional. Slight tinkering of the pattern mainly with tilt/amplification and we would see favorable heights over southern Alaska to drive the arctic air further south. Very encouraging.

Should be an interesting few days of model riding.

[Gradient Keeper]

Best looking EURO/ensembles run since January 2004? 2008? It has been years for sure since we've seen anything close to this and setting up inside Day 7.

[Deweydog]

Again...nobody say a goddam thing.

Weather apps have kinda screwed you if you are really superstation about that.

[Jesse]

I wouldn’t count your trolls until they hatch, big guy...

Very true! It would be foolish to frontload all of my trolling into the first month of winter (minus two days for Thanksgiving!) before seeing how the rest of it even pans out.

[Deweydog]

Very true! It would be foolish to frontload all of my trolling into the first month of winter (minus two days for Thanksgiving!) before seeing how the rest of it even pans out.

Thanksgiving

 

(MLK)

[Deweydog]

Best looking EURO/ensembles run since January 2004? 2008? It has been years for sure since we've seen anything close to this and setting up inside Day 7.

Three years ago right now we were being treated to some of the coldest/snowiest/consistentest model runs thus far in the millennia.

[Jesse]

Thanksgiving

(MLK)

2004-05

 

11/20

 

Holy .

 

Maybe she’s born with it (maybe it’s maybeline).

[jakerepp]

Weather apps have kinda screwed you if you are really superstation about that.

No high-of-41 snowflakes on mine just yet, but I'll be alerted to them as soon as they pop up by my MIL.

[Deweydog]

2004-05

 

11/20

 

Holy s**t.

 

Maybe she’s born with it (maybe it’s maybeline).

Models were starting to go hog wild about now in 2004.

 

Hmmmmm...

[Jesse]

Models were starting to go hog wild about now in 2004.

 

Hmmmmm...

 

Fingers crossed!

[Deweydog]

Fingers crossed!

Think +IOD!!!

[Jesse]

Think +IOD!!!

 

Whatever leads to a nice early spring and makes Jim deeply unhappy, count me in!

[Deweydog]

Whatever leads to a nice early spring and makes Jim deeply unhappy, count me in!

That’s enough, big guy. Go look somewhere else for a little post-xmas tussle.

[Jesse]

That’s enough, big guy. Go look somewhere else for a little post-xmas tussle.

 

Settle down, just playing around/channeling my inner Fred.

 

#timrulezjimdrulez

[Phil]

Big time.

 

It takes a fairly extreme pattern to deliver worthwhile snow once we get well into February.

 

In the heart of January all it takes is a decent trough, offshore flow with an approaching low, or a low to your South. Arctic air is obviously a nice bonus, but it's far from a requirement this time of year.

Heh. So strange how this stuff works..literally the opposite out here despite being farther south.

 

We often struggle to see much of anything until the second week of Jan but can stumble into snow in Feb with the most mediocre of patterns. Doesn’t compute.

[Phil]

You’d think with the thermal intertia of the Pacific your region would have peak winter much later than most areas.