Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[North_County]

With outflow that is shown there could be gusts close to 80mph up around Bellingham.

At some point, enough is enough. Power outages with the brutal cold being shown could be life-threatening for a lot of people (no exaggeration). I wouldn't want to be a lineman out in that.....

[GHweatherChris]

Freezing spray should be a real issue in the N. Interior in the coming days. Whew.

 

Also, sorry for being snappy earlier, wasn’t in a great mood

Why are you teenagers so moody and stressed out these days? My daughter is 14 and , D**n, easily does well in school but stresses herself out for no reason.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like they won't see the sun very much for quite a while.

[Timmy Supercell]

Seems like youbare already getting teary eyed lol

 

Mt. Scott? That you?? 

[Jbolin]

At some point, enough is enough. Power outages with the brutal cold being shown could be life-threatening for a lot of people (no exaggeration). I wouldn't want to be a lineman out in that.....

I can't imagine being homeless in the pattern evolving for the region next week. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh, thought it would be relevant to share that the 18z EURO apparently further deepened the cold— heard it from a few folks on a Twitter who shared the 850 mb pattern.

 

 Deepened as in having it take a tour down the Oregon coast? 

[GHweatherChris]

Mt. Scott? That you??

Random

[snow_wizard]

Can you believe the EPS is trending toward the operational GFS for late next week?!  Something in the universe is off kilter right now.

[kokaneekidz]

Can you get that for KPAE / Everett?

It is snowing in Harbour Pointe now but not sticking (ground too warm still)

[bainbridgekid]

I teach 2nd grade and today I showed my class the GFS on TropicalTidbits. We looked at the past several runs to compare the track of Sunday's low and they were oohing and awwing watching the snow move down the Sound Sunday night on some runs. They loved it.

 

Amazing how much more user friendly the models have gotten since the 4-Panel chart days through the NWS site a few years ago. They actually could understand decently what they were looking at when I explained it and asked for us to look at it again each day this week to compare how the forecast is changing.

[Chewbacca Defense]

A friend in Lake Stevens just texted a picture of it snowing in Lake Stevens, said it’s starting to stick.

 

Down to 35 IMBY here in the ‘ham

[GHweatherChris]

Do we see a major pull back tonight? Almost always happens at this point. And then it springs back into place 12 hours later.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is just amazing for next week.  Insane cold and widespread snow.  The GFS is very good too obviously.  I like how the ECMWF isn't so crazy with the easterly wind gradients.  That allows the East Puget Sound Lowlands to do a lot better with snowfall.

 

For those who aren't aware the ECMWF shows mid afternoon temps of 20 for Seattle next Tuesday.  It also has major snowfall with temps far below freezing.  With the evaporative cooling being caused by the snowfall very low daytime temps are a good bet.

[El_Nina]

Why are you teenagers so moody and stressed out these days? My daughter is 14 and , d**n, easily does well in school but stresses herself out for no reason.

Mental illness stemming from social media use

[seattleweatherguy]

some type of mixture is falling maybe its snow but my eyes are bad. @geos what do you see?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Euro is just amazing for next week.  Insane cold and widespread snow.  The GFS is very good too obviously.  I like how the ECMWF isn't so crazy with the easterly wind gradients.  That allows the East Puget Sound Lowlands to do a lot better with snowfall.

 

For those who aren't aware the ECMWF shows mid afternoon temps of 20 for Seattle next Tuesday.  It also has major snowfall with temps far below freezing.  With the evaporative cooling being caused by the snowfall very low daytime temps are a good bet.

do you what the minimum high temp is for Seattle ever?

[Front Ranger]

I teach 2nd grade and today I showed my class the GFS on TropicalTidbits. We looked at the past several runs and they were oohing and awwing watching the snow move down the Sound Sunday night. They loved it.

 

Amazing how much more user friendly the models have gotten since the 4-Panel chart days through the NWS site a few years ago. They actually could understand decently what they were looking at when I explained it and asked for us to look at it again each day this week to compare how the forecast is changing.

Good to introduce the painful reality of model heartbreak at an early age.

 

I kid, I kid!

[snow_wizard]

I teach 2nd grade and today I showed my class the GFS on TropicalTidbits. We looked at the past several runs and they were oohing and awwing watching the snow move down the Sound Sunday night. They loved it.

 

Amazing how much more user friendly the models have gotten since the 4-Panel chart days through the NWS site a few years ago. They actually could understand decently what they were looking at when I explained it and asked for us to look at it again each day this week to compare how the forecast is changing.

 

I think Tropical Tidbits has the best format for comparing runs bar none.  I like the look of the maps on Weatherbell and they are obviously much more detailed, but they are clunky to switch around.

[GHweatherChris]

Mental illness stemming from social media use

Could be, we did find questionable things on our daughters phone, we now check it daily, she wasn't too proud of what she was doing and saying.

[snow_wizard]

do you what the minimum high temp is for Seattle ever?

 

16 officially in 1950.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jay Albrecht

@AlbrechtJay

·

45m

Now, I notice that with an upper low digging and developing over the area on Sun (and others possibly later) there will be a lot of lift. Air will be cold (possibly very). Hence, it is possible that models are not picking up on potential for heavier amounts. Stay tuned!

[snow_wizard]

BTW the 18z EPS was actually a tad colder than the 12z.  Heights a bit lower.

[runninthruda206]

Jay Albrecht

@AlbrechtJay

·

45m

Now, I notice that with an upper low digging and developing over the area on Sun (and others possibly later) there will be a lot of lift. Air will be cold (possibly very). Hence, it is possible that models are not picking up on potential for heavier amounts. Stay tuned!

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 officially in 1950.

Gut feelings don't mean anything but I feel like a very cold and aggressive pattern is coming with more surprises than we've ever seen.

[El_Nina]

Could be, we did find questionable things on our daughters phone, we now check it daily, she wasn't too proud of what she was doing and saying.

And you don't know the half of it.

[snow_wizard]

Gut feelings don't mean anything but I feel like a very cold and aggressive pattern is coming with more surprises than we've ever seen.

 

The PV makes potential much higher for something epic.  I could easily envision one day having afternoon temps in the upper teens if this verifies.  Historically speaking highs in the mid teens are the lowest the Puget Sound region seems to be capable of.  Obviously Whatcom County is a different story as they have had single digit highs before in the north county especially.  I think Clearbrook had a high of 4 once.   I think Fraser outflow winds below 15 are very possible with this.

[GHweatherChris]

And you don't know the half of it.

Oh, I do now, I am like a forensic scientist with her phone now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

From what I can see this could be the most powerful outflow since 2010 and maybe 1990. I'd like Jim's opinion but some of the models had a 32mb pressure difference from Bellingham to Williams lake BC. Incredible..

[Bham_Guy]

The PV makes potential much higher for something epic.  I could easily envision one day having afternoon temps in the upper teens if this verifies.  Historically speaking highs in the mid teens are the lowest the Puget Sound region seems to be capable of.  Obviously Whatcom County is a different story as they have had single digit highs before in the north county especially.  I think Clearbrook had a high of 4 once.   I think Fraser outflow winds below 15 are very possible with this.

 

January 13, 1911 shows a high of 0.

[runninthruda206]

This really about to be (hopefully) a crazy start to this decade 

[snow_wizard]

The C-Zone seems to have a qood northerly push behind it.  Much of King County might get in on it.

[El_Nina]

Oh, I do now, I am like a forensic scientist with her phone now.

She's probably gonna buy a trap phone then

[snow_wizard]

From what I can see this could be the most powerful outflow since 2010 and maybe 1990. I'd like Jim's opinion but some of the models had a 32mb pressure difference from Bellingham to Williams lake BC. Incredible..

 

Yeah....it looks insane.  The gradient is much weaker once you get south of Bellingham, but the Puget Sound region should still see some good north winds.  Bellingham could be in top tier territory for sure.

[snow_wizard]

She's probably gonna buy a trap phone then

 

She did admit she was ashamed of her behavior so maybe not.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

When was the last time an Arctic front came down the Willamette Valley? Dec 1972?

[snow_wizard]

January 13, 1911 shows a high of 0.

 

 

That's right it was a 0 / -4 day.  I knew there was a 4 in there.

[snow_wizard]

When was the last time an Arctic front came down the Willamette Valley? Dec 1972?

 

I would guess it did in Dec 2013.  That's the only way they pulled off that -10 low.

[GHweatherChris]

She did admit she was ashamed of her behavior so maybe not.

Yep, shes a good kid, and smart enough to know that certain friends aren't really good friends now after what was found and our discussion with her. Things have been great ever since.

[ewnichols25]

To be fair, their actual forecast is now quite cold.

 

Seattle Zone forecast calling for highs in the upper 20's in Seattle next Tuesday. Can't say I've ever seen that 6 days out.

NOAA called for a high of 24 in Seattle at the end of Dec 2016. Forecast busted of course.

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently in enumclaw can confirm wet snow is falling here.