Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Weiner Warrior]

Hemorrhoids have been flaring. Means the snows coming soon.

[Cloud]

End of run at Hour 240 shows colder than 18Z, less cold than 12Z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a nice little event on this run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 2012 redux?

[Deweydog]

January 2012 redux?

Looks more like January 2007.

 

MLK will be MUTCH colder.

[TT-SEA]

The next 2 days will be telling for the GFS... once the all important block building happens within 7 days.     If it is still showing the same thing by the 00Z run on Saturday evening then I will be much more confident.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

The next 2 days will be telling for the GFS... once the all important block building happens within 7 days.     If it is still showing the same thing by the 00Z run on Saturday evening then I will be much more confident.  

I agree! In some respects, I really will not feel truly confident until we’re 5 days out. 

[MossMan]

The masses that do not really care about the weather and only use their phone app to figure out tee times will soon be freaking out...

[Blizzard777]

Been visiting my dad in Port Townsend since yesterday. Today was raw and rainy, temps fell into the upper 30s for awhile this afternoon with moderate precip. Snow level must have been low in the Olympics.

 

Interested to see if the wind advisory for tonight pans out.

They have begun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh look 8" next weekend. 

 

[Requiem]

Really awesome that GFS is still showing consistent cold. I feel this run has little changed in the general scheme of things.

[TT-SEA]

I agree! In some respects I really will not feel truly confident until we 5 days out. 

 

I agree.   If you look at my test example... that block and downstream trough were solid at 180 hours but really fell apart by 120 hours and is a jumbled mess now at 108 hours.   Although that does not mean this will play out like that.   Need to get at least another 48 hours closer.

[Deweydog]

These kind of linear applications kind of defy logic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tropical tidbits is struggling tonight.

[FroYoBro]

Another great GFS run.

 

Come on Euro, you know you want to. 

[TT-SEA]

These kind of linear applications kind of defy logic.

 

 

Might not be linear at all.  

 

I was just looking for an example of the GFS holding firm with a solid block that it showed 7 or 8 days out... since the GFS has handled the block so differently than the other models.

[TT-SEA]

Tropical tidbits is struggling tonight.

 

 

We are going to crash the site!  

[bainbridgekid]

I agree. If you look at my test example... that block and downstream trough were solid at 180 hours but really fell apart by 120 hours and is a jumbled mess now at 108 hours. Although that does not mean this will play out like that. Need to get at least another 48 hours closer.

This sounds logical on the surface, but I really don't think the GFS's handling of one specific block changes the odds of how it will handle the next one much.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS didn't blink. Timing moved up a bit. That is now 9 out of the past 11 GFS Op runs that nail us. That consistency can't be ignored.

 

00z ECMWF in 47 minutes

[TT-SEA]

This sounds so logical, but I really don't think the GFS's handling of one specific block changes the odds of how it will handle the next one much.

 

 

Maybe not.   I am just trying to find some clues.  

[Deweydog]

Maybe not. I am just trying to find some clues.

Find a window. Get a comfy chair, a bucket, a bunch of granola bars and a case of bottled water. Maybe an AM/FM radio. Sit there for ten days and look out said window.

[Perturbed Member]

Puget sound snow begins around hour 210. 

C8EABB44-817D-4A1D-AED9-102A857243E1.png

 

hour 228

261B1400-B90A-4F3F-A62F-12BC20E8AAF6.png

 

F*cking Washington County.

[FroYoBro]

Maybe not.   I am just trying to find some clues.  

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Canadian didnt blink either.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GEM is not board... but its getting closer.   That is compelling evidence as well.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Find a window. Get a comfy chair, a bucket, a bunch of granola bars and a case of bottled water. Maybe an AM/FM radio. Sit there for ten days and look out said window.

Old school weather watching. Brings back memories of my high school years with my trusty old weather radio. 

[Deweydog]

Good start to the long weekend on the GFS.

 

Can’t remember what holiday that is....

[Cloud]

-10 to -12C at 850mb at day 15. 

 

lol 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clown range goes balls to the walls. Probably a couple feet up here. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The 00Z GEM is not board... but its getting closer. That is compelling evidence as well.

Do you get the GEM from Weatherbell? Tidbits, Pivotal, and the ones I use are slow with it. I can see PNW temps to day 9 and 10 but no 500mbs for North America that far yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS with a January 1909 redux in the long range. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Does everyone have there special light outside they look at to see if its snowing?

[Cloud]

And -12C to -14C at Day 16. 

 

Yowzas. Heating bills are gonna skyrocket. 

[Deweydog]

Does everyone have there special light outside they look at to see if its snowing?

The Sun?

[runninthruda206]

Does everyone have there special light outside they look at to see if its snowing?

Of course! Always a specific street lamp for me in the u dist haha

[TT-SEA]

Do you get the GEM from Weatherbell? Tidbits, Pivotal, and the ones I use are slow with it. I can see PNW temps to day 9 and 10 but no 500mbs for North America that far yet.

 

 

So spotty.   The CONUS 850mb temp map updated on TT.   Definitely colder.

[Weiner Warrior]

Moon?

[Cloud]

Take a good look at this for the next hour before the next run and it goes away. 

[TT-SEA]

I actually think the GEM making a decent jump towards the GFS is pretty meaningful at this point.  

[Cloud]