Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Tuesday.

MLK

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day ten looks legit. Day 12 would have us in the icebox! 

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  I have never seen anything like that.

 

 

[Deweydog]

NEEDS TO TREND EAST!!!

[TT-SEA]

Very little lowland snow on the 00Z ECMWF through day 10. Still too early to be confident for me. No doubt it will be colder than normal though.

 

Also a possibility that the second shot could go a little farther west if the block continues to build to the northwest. We have seen that act before many times.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11-12 on the EURO would be jaw dropping if we were to extrapolate out further.

 

Hunch. 6z GFS moves timing up and is amazing. Colder runs ahead.

 

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

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[snow_wizard]

A very important feature of this run is the deep low at 170E.  Much nicer than last night as well.

[Deweydog]

Very little lowland snow on the 00Z ECMWF through day 10. Still too early to be confident for me. No doubt it will be colder than normal though.

 

Also a possibility that the second shot could go a little farther west if the block continues to build to the northwest. We have seen that act before many times.

That b*tch is already cyclogenic at 240 hours.

[TT-SEA]

 

Day 11-12 on the EURO would be jaw dropping if we were to extrapolate out further.

 

Hunch. 6z GFS moves timing up and is amazing. Colder runs ahead.

 

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

Not necessarily. That block is building to the northwest pretty fast at day 10.

 

All speculation because day 10 will not end up exactly like that anyways.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not necessarily. That block is building to the northwest pretty fast at day 10.

 

All speculation because day 10 will not end up exactly like that anyways.

I sure don't see it building to the northwest. I would like to see it a notch or two further east though. Yep all we can do is speculate.

[TT-SEA]

I sure don't see it building to the northwest. I would like to see it a notch or two further east though.

Run the loop.

[Deweydog]

Love him or hate him, but Tim is right.

 

That is not an inside slider. That system is primed to dump a lot of cold air over the GOA.

 

Who am I kidding, nobody loves Tim.

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes!

 

Night shift ?

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Nice to see some that sh*t actually verify.

[bainbridgekid]

MLK

I'll be in San Diego that weekend.

 

My vacation + the Dewey index + the long range GFS has me a little concerned I may miss something noteworthy.

[Deweydog]

I'll be in San Diego that weekend.

 

My vacation + the Dewey index + the long range GFS has me a little concerned I may miss something noteworthy.

That sucks. I’ll see what I can do for you but pushing it back to President’s Day gets into some sloppy sun angles.

[TT-SEA]

Love him or hate him, but Tim is right.

 

That is not an inside slider. That system is primed to dump a lot of cold air over the GOA.

 

Who am I kidding, nobody loves Tim.

 

 

Maybe my kids??   

[Perturbed Member]

To be fair, it was a dud for the Portland metro area. 

 

It was pretty great for everyone north and south of PDX. That low going way south gave Eugene/southern valley and central OR a hell of a snowstorm though. Regionwide that month was pretty impressive, PDX getting missed in the middle of all that snow was technically a small detail in the grand scheme of things even though it pissed weenies here off.

[Deweydog]

Maybe my kids??

Maybe. We’ll see what the EPS says about that.

[Requiem]

It was pretty great for everyone north and south of PDX. That low going way south gave Eugene/southern valley and central OR a hell of a snowstorm though. Regionwide that month was pretty impressive, PDX getting missed in the middle of all that snow was technically a small detail in the grand scheme of things even though it pissed weenies here off.

Definitely hurt to see everyone else score while we didn’t, but hopefully this year will be better if something snowy does ensue!

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS at day 8:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Focusing on the short-mid range the Euro nearly complete caved to the GFS. Day 4-7 Ridge/evolving block is many notches stronger. Just after Day 5 the Alaskan vortex is shoved out. Excellent potential once that is kicked out of Alaska.

[TT-SEA]

Focusing on the short-mid range the Euro nearly complete caved to the GFS. Day 4-7 Ridge/evolving block is many notches stronger. Just after Day 5 the Alaskan vortex is shoved out. Excellent potential once that is kicked out of Alaska.

 

 

There has been lots of model changes for the first part of next week... across the board.   

 

I would say the models converged on a solution.   Which obviously normally happens once you get within 7 days.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS at day 9...

 

[MossMan]

We have gained the Euro and lost Tim and Matt!

[TT-SEA]

We have gained the Euro and lost Tim and Matt!

ECMWF still does not show meaningful lowland snow within 10 days.

 

And the second shot is too far out. An over-baked block could send that offshore and that is not a pretty scenario.

 

Lots of potential. But the details are very muddy.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS at day 10:

 

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS held steady, the GEM took small steps towards the GFS and the ECMWF nearly caved entirely to the GFS. Good progress. Not too concerned about not seeing huge snowstorms in the 200 hour+ range right now. Will worry about those details once we get the large scale stuff right.

[Perturbed Member]

Definitely hurt to see everyone else score while we didn’t, but hopefully this year will be better if something snowy does ensue!

 

Yep certainly sucked for us. Just the way it is sometimes, even in a good pattern some places just slip between the cracks and miss out. In the long run it does tend to mostly even out though.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS is better. A step in the right direction. Block tilts Day 11-12. Bitter air is pushing south in BC.

[snow_wizard]

Major EPS improvment tonight even as early as hour 180.  This is looking really solid now.

[TT-SEA]

EPS at day 13... strong signal at that range.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS at day 13... strong signal at that range.

 

It's closer and the airmass in BC/AB is FRIGID!!!!

[GHweatherChris]

I cannot wait until the EPS shows great stuff in the single digit day realm.. Enough with the whole 10+ day timeframe.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift!!

 

43F and cloudy in downtown Springfield.

[TT-SEA]

EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

[ShawniganLake]

I cannot wait until the EPS shows great stuff in the single digit day realm.. Enough with the whole 10+ day timeframe.

I’d like to see some single digits on my thermometer, in real time.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

Looks improved to me. I assume if things progress nicely that in a few days we'll see colder ensemble runs across the board with all model camps. Thanks, Tim for posting the EPS maps.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 39 minutes