Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’d like to see some single digits on my thermometer, in real time.

Never experienced single digits in my life. Missed out on the Dec 2013 event as I was in Texas.

[TT-SEA]

Never experienced single digits in my life. Missed out on the Dec 2013 event as I was in Texas.

I thought Eugene was like -10 a few years back with snow on the ground?

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

I thought Eugene was like -10 a few years back with snow on the ground?

He was in Texas. That was dec 2013

[ShawniganLake]

[Omegaraptor]

I thought Eugene was like -10 a few years back with snow on the ground?

 

 

That was December 2013...

 

 

Never experienced single digits in my life. Missed out on the Dec 2013 event as I was in Texas.

Coldest I’ve experienced is -6°F at Sunriver in December 2016. A cold and snowy week that sure was.

 

At the Mt Hood ski resorts I’ve only seen down to about 10°F. Technically I’ve seen a -4°F windchill but we all know windchill doesn’t count. Then again I only started skiing in the winter of 17-18 so hopefully I will see colder this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS tonight also didn't show the block abruptly building off to the west as last nights did. Good signs all the way around.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 30 members on after midnight. Awesome!

[Art_Digbee]

Still 30 members on after midnight. Awesome!

 

Am I officially part of the late shift?

[Omegaraptor]

06z NAMMY!

[North_County]

I remember one day had a definite Fraser River wind at the beginning of the event, and then we had a cold east wind develop here the night of the 2nd snow event. It snowed with temps in the mid 20s. Pretty legit cold.

Yes, there was enough Fraser outflow beginning on the 3rd and 4th to give Abbotsford lows in the teens for 6 of the next 9 days, and sub-30 lows for 12 straight days. February 2nd bottomed out at 36° (16° on the 3rd) and the next low that exceeded 32° wasn't until the 13th....of March.

 

The wind shredded almost any hint of moisture with the audacity to try to enter the area for most of that stretch, though.

[Thurston Howell III]

We've had some single digits in Port Orchard over the years.  2 once, 4 I think another time and a couple other times like 8 and 9.  In Gig Harbor now, 2000' from the sound, temp barely changes.  Below zero in Pullman when I was there.  Had an intramural flag football game at 4 degrees.  Yikes, thankfully everybody else made the same mistake I did and wore cleats.  A bunch of guys gingerly trying to run because their cleats weren't digging in.   

[bainbridgekid]

Getting some impressive sounding wind gusts right now. Everett right nearby gusted to 37.

[BLI snowman]

It was pretty great for everyone north and south of PDX. That low going way south gave Eugene/southern valley and central OR a hell of a snowstorm though. Regionwide that month was pretty impressive, PDX getting missed in the middle of all that snow was technically a small detail in the grand scheme of things even though it pissed weenies here off.

Everyone south of Corvallis and north of Chehalis did great. The area in between was meh. That's a reasonably large chunk of the region that saw 6" or less. Due.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Making my window rattle.

Hum too Fred, that was a great U2 album/Cd

Another Canadian here that posts from time to time, hopefully we are winding up for the goodies in January would be awesome.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Trying to stay awake for the 06Z GFS but hard to. Currently 2.1c up here in Chilliwack B.C. 36f  not much rain yet. I much appreciate all the map posting on your forum and great wealth of information. Better late never "Happy New Year" to you all's.

[bainbridgekid]

Making my window rattle.

Here too. Feels like easily 40+ mph gusts.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

North County you have the best of both world's Environment Canada's forecast for Abbotsford or the NWS for Whatcom which do you pick a blend of the two and hope for the best? ever kept score on who nails it most for Sumas.

[snow_wizard]

North County you have the best of both world's Environment Canada's forecast for Abbotsford or the NWS for Whatcom which do you pick a blend of the two and hope for the best? ever kept score on who nails it most for Sumas.

 

I was just looking at the monthly temperature averages for Clearbrook and as always just shake my head at the cold Januaries they / you used to get.  In the 1910s they had three (yes three) Januaries that averaged below 30 degrees with the coldest (1916) averaging 22F.  Contrast that with the last 25 years where their coldest January was 34.0!  Last winter they had their coldest February since 1936 so there is no doubt in my mind those sub 30 Januaries are still possible.  This one could have a tough time with a mild first week, but they came out way below 30 in 1969 with a mostly mild first 10 days so it is possible if the cold comes and stays.

 

Even the Central Puget Sound area has had sub 30 Januaries in the past and sometimes a couple per decade.  Amazing what is possible here!

 

Very interesting climate you have up there.

[snow_wizard]

Getting some impressive sounding wind gusts right now. Everett right nearby gusted to 37.

 

Starting to get some cold air injected into the jet stream has really woken things up.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, there was enough Fraser outflow beginning on the 3rd and 4th to give Abbotsford lows in the teens for 6 of the next 9 days, and sub-30 lows for 12 straight days. February 2nd bottomed out at 36° (16° on the 3rd) and the next low that exceeded 32° wasn't until the 13th....of March.

 

The wind shredded almost any hint of moisture with the audacity to try to enter the area for most of that stretch, though.

 

Yeah....I had an amazing number of freezing low temps here also.  They just kept coming no matter what it seemed like.

[Meatyorologist]

Work schedule gets me home around an hour before 06z begins. I can upload what appears if you guys would like, rather than staying up super late. Not really much else going on for me while sitting at home around 2am

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS

 

Day 4

 

 

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

 

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5 850s

 

[bainbridgekid]

6z showing no signs of caving.

 

Healthy looking block into Alaska and arctic air well across the border into Washington at hour 210.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z showing no signs of caving.

 

Healthy looking block into Alaska and arctic air pouring into Washington at hour 210.

Better tilt with the block too.

[Cloud]

 Gets there by 210. 522 line crossing Portland and 516 Seattle. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 516 thickness PDX, 514 Seattle

[FroYoBro]

King GFS?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 850s Not exactly warm

 

[Meatyorologist]

What I'm liking about the 06z: General theme of a cold snap w/ potentially significant snowfall continues, along w/ reloads. Plus timing coming forward (finally).

 

What worries me: That offshore ridge is getting scarily close. While it promotes blocking, it could also keep the trough progression too inland if it gets too close. It's been trending sharply closer, so I'd keep an eye on that. Playing with fire there.

[Gradient Keeper]

What I'm liking about the 06z: General theme of a cold snap w/ potentially significant snowfall continues, along w/ reloads. Plus timing coming forward (finally).

 

What worries me: That offshore ridge is getting scarily close. While it promotes blocking, it could also keep the trough progression too inland if it gets too close. It's been trending sharply closer, so I'd keep an eye on that. Playing with fire there.

Actually looking at the North Pacific view I'm not seeing the block trending towards us at all, at least not the mean axis position. What I do see are variances in tilt, amplification and the blocks width, and how well the block is connected to the high arctic ridge. I do understand those concerns though.

 

Day 9 past 4 runs

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11 Incoming

 

[Meatyorologist]

Day 11 Incoming

 

The bomb is about to drop (w/ pacific air)

[bainbridgekid]

Nice to see timing move up a bit. Classic arctic front/deformation band snow around Puget Sound next Saturday afternoon on the 6z.

 

You can see how the cold air actually gets here a little sooner on the 6z than either the 18z or 00z:

 

[Brennan]

How about Hawks V 49ers round 3 next Sunday... In the midst of a snowstorm and arctic blast....?? AMEN!!??

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 14

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 15