Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Prairiedog]

Bottom line is that we are now 7 days out from the cold period basically starting per the GFS and GEFS.    And its not backing down... actually the opposite.   Cannot be discounted any longer.

I would agree.  It will be the details that need to be worked out.  I'd love to see some well below ave daytime temps.  I don't think this will be the epic or historic hyperbole I was drinking in my coffee cup earlier, but if I can get some day time highs below 30 I'm going to be a happy guy.  Now, will we get some snow with an arctic front?  The few I've gotten to experience in my life have been the best.  Dropping temps, wind picks up, snow falls, then colder air filling in behind.  Now that excites me a lot!  Could it be?

[TacomaWaWx]

I am not discounting the GFS solution at all. I think eventually the EURO and GFS will both move towards each other.

 

My main point is, what it is showing next weekend and a few days beyond is not an arctic blast. It has snow potential and at face value could get pretty chilly. But we are talking January 2007 at the top end and more likely January 2002, 08, 12 type stuff. Again beyond hour 300 who knows, and next weekend could trend colder, but -9C with 518 thickness and onshore flow is not as cold at the surface as people in here are acting like.

 

All I care about is snow and cold...don't necessarily need an Arctic blast anyways. Looks pretty d*mn cold though either way. Nothing wrong with a JAN 2007 or 2012 repeat.

[TT-SEA]

Here is what the GFS showed one week ago for today...

 

 

 

 

And here is what actually happened...

 

 

 

 

GFS did way better than the ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[MossMan]

JAYA

[Blizzard777]

Just read Jaya's tweets too. Something to watch with the GFS vs. Euro, etc. 

We will learn knowledge from this event unfolding

 

”IF” things go sour Fred will comfort us with sarcasm

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS kicks the vortex out of Alaska at Day 5.5. Let's see what the EURO does. Hopefully around there.

[Blizzard777]

I am on board... its a freight train roaring towards us and its coming.     

 

Sorry... you are screwed for your Hawaii trip.    I would not really have a problem going back to Hawaii though.   

Dang! Is he playing the reverse psychology card! 

So confused now?!?!

[Blizzard777]

Rod is onboard 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Too many people letting the cat out of the bag too early.  But I'm utterly shocked that Rod Hill was the first to spill the beans up there /s

 

It'll be Shipotofsky down here if the EC starts to cave.

[Timmy]

The local Mets and nws are being reckless by not jumping on this. Crazy.

[MossMan]

Walter Kelly beat them all to the Arctic punch!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The local Mets and nws are being reckless by not jumping on this. Crazy.

No... They are fine... still plenty of time. 

[Winterdog]

I’m on board that we will be getting cooler but not necessarily snowy. Until the big three models are in general agreement within 3 days of the event we are just being hopeful.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Jaya is extremely conservative in what he tweets. He wasn't on board with the February event until a few days before, and even then, thought the forecasted totals were overdone. It is what he is trained to do as a forecaster and you always have to lean to climo mean.

Well, said and absolutely accurate.

[MossMan]

Jaya is extremely conservative in what he tweets. He wasn't on board with the February event until a few days before, and even then, thought the forecasted totals were overdone. It is what he is trained to do as a forecaster and you always have to lean to climo mean.

He does really enjoy snow and active weather (unlike Rich Marriott) you could tell from his NWS AFD’s and from posting here. Too bad he doesn’t post here anymore...We all must have scared him off.

[Blizzard777]

All I care about is snow and cold...don't necessarily need an Arctic blast anyways. Looks pretty d*mn cold though either way. Nothing wrong with a JAN 2007 or 2012 repeat.

I’m playing the greedy card....my birthday week!

Arctic blizzard flash freeze frozen storm warning front!!!

I want the wholeeeee worlddddd......I want it NOWwwwwwwwww!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[TT-SEA]

Just looked into some past ECMWF runs... a week ago this morning it was showing us going into the freezer with cold and snow for this weekend.    It was supposed to be starting today!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 65 members on now!

[Gradient Keeper]

Very similar to the GFS. AK Vortex sliding east-southeast at Day 5

 

[Blizzard777]

Too many people letting the cat out of the bag too early.  But I'm utterly shocked that Rod Hill was the first to spill the beans up there /s

 

It'll be Shipotofsky down here if the EC starts to cave.

Matt Z also mentioned it in the long term forcast

If Mark Nelson puts on his snow tires then he’s on board as well

[BLI snowman]

It will cave.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looked into some past ECMWF runs... a week ago this morning it was showing us going into the freezer with cold and snow for this weekend.    It was supposed to be starting today!  

 

There was nothing ever shown for this weekend comparable to what the GFS is showing for next weekend. But yeah, at one point it was showing the 522 thickness line getting to about Salem with cold onshore flow.

[Blizzard777]

The local Mets and nws are being reckless by not jumping on this. Crazy.

Only we are allowed to be reckless! 

 

lol

[Slushy Inch]

Euro has better 850mb temp anomalies than the gfs at 120 hours and what looks like an improved blocking setup. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020010312/ecmwf_T850a_us_6.png

 

Ridge is stronger on the euro in this run and looks like it should merge with the ridge over Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020010312/ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

[FroYoBro]

Starting to get toasty again here with sun breaks. Up to 52.

[Prairiedog]

Rod is onboard 

Rod is a hard core GFS lover.  Last winter he stayed with the GFS to the bitter end when the EURO collapsed for the Metro area.  I think he's doing it again.  Last year everyone was on his butt when he called for warmer temps and little or no snow when most of the mets were calling for snowmageddon.  He won that one. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[TT-SEA]

There was nothing ever shown for this weekend comparable to what the GFS is showing for next weekend. But yeah, at one point it was showing the 522 thickness line getting to about Salem with cold onshore flow.

False start it appears.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went on a nice 30 minute walk before my conference call. Very pleasant in Salem today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

False start it appears.

 

Yes. Snow levels should bottom out around 1500-2000' tomorrow and again on Sunday morning. I'm not expecting any accumulation, but would not be surprised to see some flakes, especially Sunday morning. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here it comes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF definitely in the process of caving.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Euro is improved at day 7, but still easily closer to CMC than GFS solution.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I'll take a combination of both!!

 

On top of that; my signature would suggest that we get another solid winter, they come in TWO OF A KIND!!