Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

CAVE

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

PRIMED FOR CAVAGE!!

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF definitely in the process of caving.

 

Unfortunately, no.

[Deweydog]

Anybody wanna go to the Ape Caves to celebrate?

[TacomaWaWx]

This is all going quite well. Can't really ask for much more on the models at this point. Just need to keep consistently seeing good sh*t on the runs over the next few days. Specific small details like temps and snow totals don't really matter yet...just the general pattern evolution. Block and cold air all seem to be close to perfect location. Would like to see the models line up on the timing a bit better is one thing I could say.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[TT-SEA]

Well... the 12Z ECMWF still ends up being crap.  

[bainbridgekid]

Euro certainly improved in its handling of the block and weakening the Alaskan Vortex, but still a ways to go before it agrees with the GFS's handling of the downstream trough over us.

 

Yesterday's 12z Euro with the vortex and low heights still in Alaska:

 

 

And the 12z Euro today with a more amplified block and higher heights in Alaska:

 

 

But comparing that to the 12z GFS today shows it still has quite a ways to go:

 

 

 

[FroYoBro]

The battle continues. 

[TT-SEA]

Although it might be about to get there at day 10... waiting for the last frame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The EURO is showing a very realistic solution. Cool troughing and 1000-2000' snow levels. In line with other global models. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Need better connection with the arctic ridge, amplification Day 6-7. GFS moved timing ahead. GEFS moved timing ahead and improved noticeably. EURO lagging behind, but almost there.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty clear the GFS is still on an island. GEM and Euro are miles closer days 6-10.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC a week ago showed us getting snow RN. Anything past day 5-6 on it seems iffy at the moment.

[bainbridgekid]

Still massive differences at day 9. Not caving yet.

 

GFS:

 

Euro:

 

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Clear improvements

 

TODAY

 

 

PREVIOUS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 There we go

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution. 

[OysterPrintout]

Euro looks like it's getting there at the end. Stop me if you've heard this before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If anyone has the CPC analogs I would love to see them. Thanks in advance.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rob, you mentioned 1950 on your FB group today. In January 2005 the Seattle NWS dropped a 1950 reference in their AFD. Analog?

[OysterPrintout]

Seems like a blend of the models would be a weekend warning shot followed by the hammer dropping 48-72 hours after.

[Gradient Keeper]

Remember last night 00z EURO Op was a step behind even this run and the 00z EPS improved.

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob, you mentioned 1950 on your FB group today. In January 2005 the Seattle NWS dropped a 1950 reference in their AFD. Analog?

I would say so. Yes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The EPS will be telling.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution.Why

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution.

 

Why

[TT-SEA]

Day 10 There we go

 

 

 

This is the part that makes me wonder if the GFS is being too aggressive with the cold air.

 

ECMWF is just not impressive in terms of cold even when the 500mb pattern looks good.

 

[Deweydog]

Why

[Gradient Keeper]

This is the part that makes me wonder if the GFS is being too aggressive with the cold air.

 

ECMWF is just not impressive in terms of cold even when the 500mb pattern looks good.

 

It would be real cold Day 11-13 if we extrapolated. Also, the 00z EPS you posted last night showed a bitter air mass in BC/AB whereas the Op did not.

 

00z GFS in 8 hours 24 minutes

[TT-SEA]

It would be real cold Day 11-13 if we extrapolated. Also, the 00z EPS you posted last night showed a bitter air mass in BC/AB whereas the Op did not.

 

00z GFS in 8 hours 24 minutes

 

Not necessarily.  

 

Nagging doubt every time I see a ECMWF run that does not show much of any lowland snow within 10 days and the cold not really that close at day 10 and we have to extrapolate.

 

But maybe the ECMWF just sucks right now.  

[TT-SEA]

Because this whole setup is fake and the only solution here will be one where only SilverFallsTim gets snow. This is how weather works.

 

 

Timmy's house should also be buried while he is on the beach in Hawaii.   

[Front Ranger]

I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution. 

 

Like Tim said, a compromise seems most likely. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is really no evidence for major cold outside of the GFS operational. No ensemble support, none of the global models. I am sorry this is not what people want to hear. 

[FroYoBro]

There is really no evidence for major cold outside of the GFS operational. No ensemble support, none of the global models. I am sorry this is not what people want to hear. 

 

Yeah, nothing has really changed in the last day. 

 

Pretty interesting to see the GFS sticking to its guns. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think a January 2002 type of scenario is best case in the 11-14th period. After that who knows. 

[Front Ranger]

This is the part that makes me wonder if the GFS is being too aggressive with the cold air.

 

ECMWF is just not impressive in terms of cold even when the 500mb pattern looks good.

 

 

I don't remember this being an issue during the fall blocking patterns/cold snaps, though.

 

But we definitely had better model agreement leading up to those as well.

[Timmy]

Timmy's house should also be buried while he is on the beach in Hawaii.

I no longer live on snowy hill ridge.

 

On the other hand, the super pretentious Brit that bought the house is in for a rude awakening when they can’t get out of the driveway for a week. Good luck to her jag and Maserati

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 8.5

 

[Timmy]

There is really no evidence for major cold outside of the GFS operational. No ensemble support, none of the global models. I am sorry this is not what people want to hear.

this is gold