Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[FroYoBro]

Arctic front arrived early at the coast!

 

Dew points were already into the low 20’s in Astoria this morning.

61 as a high there. Nice day.

[MossMan]

Currently 55 warm windy degrees! Could be the warmest day this month! (What I told my wife anyway)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F and feeling like spring. Nice day with filtered sunshine. Going to be a far cry from this for a while.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Glad we are torching to ensure no matter what we are not able to achieve top tier cold monthly averages. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Did Sybil take up residence here?

[MossMan]

Glad we are torching to ensure no matter what we are not able to achieve top tier cold monthly averages.

You might want to consider a long walk or jog...Helps me when I’m feeling down...Or there is always the med route.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You might want to consider a long walk or jog...Helps me when I’m feeling down...Or there is always the med route.

 

I went for a nice walk this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also for reference, though we are looking at cold temps in Alaska right now and over the next seven days, we are not looking at Big League cold by any means. -30ish temps are pretty common up in those parts. Much colder air up north than what we had to work with in January 2017 though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You might want to consider a long walk or jog...Helps me when I’m feeling down...Or there is always the med route.

I just crank up some Molly Hatchet or Ted Nugent

[Omegaraptor]

Glad we are torching to ensure no matter what we are not able to achieve top tier cold monthly averages.

 

IMO it’s more interesting than day after day of 47 degree rainless overcast. Like we just had to finish off December.

[Deweydog]

18z already shows a cooling trend through hour 36.

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently 55 warm windy degrees! Could be the warmest day this month! (What I told my wife anyway)

Warm here too but dead calm. No wind at all...was some last night but not much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is cold though not arctic. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS seems to think 18-22nd is prime time. 

[umadbro]

Marks quick thoughts

[Prairiedog]

For Dec 2008, didn't the cold air come in in the middle of the month and the big storm happened around the 21st or something? Did that low come out of the NW? My memory is kind of fuzzy on the details of that setup. 

The 18-19th of Dec. was when I had my big dump of snow.  Mid-levels warmed up a little and I had 20f rain on top of 8" of snow, ended with about 1/4" of ice and then another 7" of snow.   There was no southerlies at all.  NW flow.  What I most remember was unanimous model agreement from all of them 8 maybe even 10 days out.  Can't remember the exact time they all locked on together but it was at least 8 days out. 

[Deweydog]

CFS seems to think 18-22nd is prime time.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmlk

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks more amplified than anything else BF34746A-BDEF-4041-A830-C7F866A95BD8.gif

Yeah, even more amplified than the GFS.

 

[Front Ranger]

Also for reference, though we are looking at cold temps in Alaska right now and over the next seven days, we are not looking at Big League cold by any means. -30ish temps are pretty common up in those parts. Much colder air up north than what we had to work with in January 2017 though. 

 

Fairbanks wasn't all that cold leading up to Dec 2008 events either...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18-19th of Dec. was when I had my big dump of snow.  Mid-levels warmed up a little and I had 20f rain on top of 8" of snow, ended with about 1/4" of ice and then another 7" of snow.   There was no southerlies at all.  NW flow.  What I most remember was unanimous model agreement from all of them 8 maybe even 10 days out.  Can't remember the exact time they all locked on together but it was at least 8 days out. 

 

Interesting. In Silverton we were on the south edge of the good stuff, but it still turned out alright. 

 

12/14/08: Woke up to a dusting of snow, then it melted as the arctic front was still to the north. The front came through about 3pm and dropped about 2.5" of snow. 

15-16th were cold and dry. 

17th: Precip briefly started as snow and turned to rain.

18-19th: 1-2" of snow both days with scattered snow showers. 

20th: Was raining when I got up, turned to snow around 9a and snowed until about 5p. 4.5" of snow then freezing rain and sleet. 

21st: A mix of snow and freezing rain with significant icing. Late in the evening the temp soared into the upper 30s and limbs started crashing down everywhere.

22nd: Light snow in the morning intensified to heavy snow by late morning/early afternoon. 8" of snow fell. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fairbanks wasn't all that cold leading up to Dec 2008 events either...

 

Not it is not the end all be all. However, early January 1969 it was like -65 in Fairbanks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 120 I do not see any significant changes on the GFS.

[Prairiedog]

Interesting. In Silverton we were on the south edge of the good stuff, but it still turned out alright. 

 

12/14/08: Woke up to a dusting of snow, then it melted as the arctic front was still to the north. The front came through about 3pm and dropped about 2.5" of snow. 

15-16th were cold and dry. 

17th: Precip briefly started as snow and turned to rain.

18-19th: 1-2" of snow both days with scattered snow showers. 

20th: Was raining when I got up, turned to snow around 9a and snowed until about 5p. 4.5" of snow then freezing rain and sleet. 

21st: A mix of snow and freezing rain with significant icing. Late in the evening the temp soared into the upper 30s and limbs started crashing down everywhere.

22nd: Light snow in the morning intensified to heavy snow by late morning/early afternoon. 8" of snow fell. 

I won't ever forget watching it rain and being around 20f.  Might have been a little warmer, don't remember exactly but it sure put a good layer of ice on the snow before it changed back over.  The second round of snow, it was in the upper 20's I remember. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I won't ever forget watching it rain and being around 20f.  Might have been a little warmer, don't remember exactly but it sure put a good layer of ice on the snow before it changed back over.  The second round of snow, it was in the upper 20's I remember. 

 

To his undying credit, Rod Hill was the only met to forecast the 12/22 event, which occurred as a little vort max swung inland. It was a great event for Marion County. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Interesting. In Silverton we were on the south edge of the good stuff, but it still turned out alright.

 

12/14/08: Woke up to a dusting of snow, then it melted as the arctic front was still to the north. The front came through about 3pm and dropped about 2.5" of snow.

15-16th were cold and dry.

17th: Precip briefly started as snow and turned to rain.

18-19th: 1-2" of snow both days with scattered snow showers.

20th: Was raining when I got up, turned to snow around 9a and snowed until about 5p. 4.5" of snow then freezing rain and sleet.

21st: A mix of snow and freezing rain with significant icing. Late in the evening the temp soared into the upper 30s and limbs started crashing down everywhere.

22nd: Light snow in the morning intensified to heavy snow by late morning/early afternoon. 8" of snow fell.

My heart breaks for the poor folks here who missed out on that. But we got 2/25/19 so it all ends up evening out eventually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rob the people on your group are so detail oriented. They pick up on tiny features I wouldn't even think about. You have taught well master. 

[FroYoBro]

Up to 55 here. Might make the cold front later tonight a bit more satisfying. 

[bainbridgekid]

18z is a little chillier with the mid-week trough and even has a little CZ snow around Snohomish County Thursday morning.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My heart breaks for the poor folks here who missed out on that. But we got 2/25/19 so it all ends up evening out eventually.

 

Yeah, that was a great stretch in Silverton, but even there not as good as PDX and Clark County. 

[Prairiedog]

To his undying credit, Rod Hill was the only met to forecast the 12/22 event, which occurred as a little vort max swung inland. It was a great event for Marion County. 

He's the only one to call last years snowmageddon bust as well.  He hung onto the GFS with white knuckles and never flinched. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low for late next week is way stronger on this run.

[Front Ranger]

18z might be speeding up the timing a hair.

 

Cold air is definitely closer at day 6.

[Perturbed Member]

The 18-19th of Dec. was when I had my big dump of snow.  Mid-levels warmed up a little and I had 20f rain on top of 8" of snow, ended with about 1/4" of ice and then another 7" of snow.   There was no southerlies at all.  NW flow.  What I most remember was unanimous model agreement from all of them 8 maybe even 10 days out.  Can't remember the exact time they all locked on together but it was at least 8 days out. 

 

 I did remember the phenomenal model agreement with that event. I had totally forgotten the setup. D**n orgasmic. 

 

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/erry-2018/12/0e131ca88d8678/10-years-later-the-2008-blizza.html

 

"On Dec. 14, 2008, a low pressure system slid down the Pacific coast and allowed a mass of frigid Arctic air to filter into the Columbia River Basin that pushed through the gorge and over the Cascades to roil life in Portland. Temps in the Willamette Valley plummeted to the high teens and stayed there.

...

Despite low rates of accumulation, the snow fell steady and light through Dec. 20. That's when the skies opened up and the real action started. For three days, a storm birthed in the Gulf of Alaska dropped more than a foot on the valley floor and significantly more than that at higher elevations.

...

Some spots in Portland's west hills reported up to 30 inches of snow and drifts piled 6-feet high in some places. About halfway through the deluge, precipitation turned from snow to ice, adding a treacherous slippery layer to an already fraught situation.

"

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Fri night/Sat system is warmer, though.

[Deweydog]

Warmer and colder run.

[runninthruda206]

Sat night - sun still looks cold enough for snow for puget sound

[runninthruda206]

Still VERY cold starting Sunday wow

[FroYoBro]

Still VERY cold starting Sunday wow

Definitely warmer than the 12z though. 

[Deweydog]

We = 33

33 degree snow is better than 34 degree snow...

[runninthruda206]

Definitely warmer than the 12z though.

Yeah, but for me I’m cool with cold enough to snow. Don’t need an arctic blast, though it would be wild