Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I no longer live on snowy hill ridge.

 

On the other hand, the super pretentious Brit that bought the house is in for a rude awakening when they can’t get out of the driveway for a week.

 

Do you miss it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

this is gold

 

Note that I did not say it was not going to get cool/cold and/or snow. But we have people throwing around January 1950 and 69 references. C'mon!

[Timmy]

Do you miss it?

I do, for the snow and 5 acres. I don’t miss payment and the nearly 1000$ per month multco tax bill. But in this season of life is does make more sense with the kids, and the business in town as well as all the family (free babysitting).

[MossMan]

1950!!

[BLI snowman]

I think a January 2002 type of scenario is best case in the 11-14th period. After that who knows. 

 

January 2007 was better than that and is still a pretty realistic analog. The initial push, if it occurs as the GFS says, won't be some huge airmass but would easily give us some of the deep offshore flow that an event like 2002 lacked.

[MossMan]

I do, for the snow and 5 acres. I don’t miss payment and the nearly 1000$ per month multco tax bill. But in this season of life is does make more sense with the kids, and the business in town as well as all the family (free babysitting).

What kind of property and elevation are you at now?

[Omegaraptor]

 

Lots of ensemble support for cold in the Columbia Basin...

 

 

-6 to -7 ensemble mean in Portland

 

But yeah, no ensemble support at all for cold. Just carry on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do, for the snow and 5 acres. I don’t miss payment and the nearly 1000$ per month multco tax bill. But in this season of life is does make more sense with the kids, and the business in town as well as all the family (free babysitting). 

 

 

It was a pretty huge house if I remember correctly, but $1000 a month. Good lord. Buying in 2011 my mortgage+ taxes is only $1350 a month. We have 3 acres, the house is pretty modest 3bd 2 bath 1620 sq ft. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Note that I did not say it was not going to get cool/cold and/or snow. But we have people throwing around January 1950 and 69 references. C'mon!

So you don't think crazy cold and snow can happen like those good years? Many parts of western Wa were buried in snow last February.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10...

 

[OysterPrintout]

Note that I did not say it was not going to get cool/cold and/or snow. But we have people throwing around January 1950 and 69 references. C'mon!

 

nobody is throwing that around except the usual suspects so there's really no reason to savagely downplay the upcoming pattern only in comparison to all time epic storms EVEN THOUGH I KNOW that's your particular brand here.

[Timmy]

What kind of property and elevation are you at now?

i updated my profile on the desktop version, but I’m just nw of scappoose at about 100’ in a steep valley, only about 3 miles from a 1400’ hill tho. Property is 1 acre on a big creek.

 

We do have a house in bend and one in rockaway as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 2007 was better than that and is still a pretty realistic analog. The initial push, if it occurs as the GFS says, won't be some huge airmass but would easily give us some of the deep offshore flow that an event like 2002 lacked.

 

I guess I am just skeptical the GFS solution for next weekend is going to verify. I think it is possible there is a secondary "blast" in the 15-20th range, which is why I was specific to the 11-14th dates. 

[Front Ranger]

What about late Dec 2003 as an analog? Jan 1998 perhaps?

[TT-SEA]

EPS is still way too cold over Alaska at day 10 for arctic air down here.

[Omegaraptor]

So you don't think crazy cold and snow can happen like those good years? Many parts of western Wa were buried in snow last February.

Nope, never again. It’s literally impossible. 0% chance until the next Little Ice Age. The PNW is becoming a subtropical climate.

[Gradient Keeper]

Are you serious, Eddie?

 

The GEFS 500mb dramatically improved. We do have good ensemble support, but so far only the GFS/GEFS.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 12... slightly better than the 00Z run but still too cold in Alaska.  

 

Block might also be a little too far west at that time?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So you don't think crazy cold and snow can happen like those good years? Many parts of western Wa were buried in snow last February.

 

Snow yes. The cold...the jury is still out on that one. December 2008 and February 2019 show we can still score some incredibly snowy months. However, the big snows were not as widespread in either of those months as some of the great months of yesteryear and they both lacked true meaningful cold and cold anomalies (Though obviously they were both cold months.). Not only did it snow a TON in January 1950, but look at the temps... I just don't think our present climate is capable of delivering that combo. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12Z EPS at day 12... slightly better than the 00Z run but still too cold in Alaska.  

 

Block might also be a little too far west at that time.

 

Block axis is around 158-160 W. Perfect

[Timmy]

It was a pretty huge house if I remember correctly, but $1000 a month. Good lord. Buying in 2011 my mortgage+ taxes is only $1350 a month. We have 3 acres, the house is pretty modest 3bd 2 bath 1620 sq ft.

it was 4200 sq ft. But I fought a zoning issue for years there that greatly reduced the resale value but the county was still taxing me like it was worth what it should have been. But the headache is gone and the worst thing is I get less snow. I will make my way to higher elevations someday tho.

[TT-SEA]

Block axis is around 158 W. Perfect

 

 

Seems like we would want the top of the block to be squarely over Alaska... not sure.

[Deweydog]

What about late Dec 2003 as an analog? Jan 1998 perhaps?

Late December 2003 maybe, but January 1998 was kind of an oddball.

[Gradient Keeper]

12Z EPS at day 12... slightly better than the 00Z run but still too cold in Alaska.  

 

Block might also be a little too far west at that time?

 

The cold on this frame is spilling south out of Alaska into Yukon, BC, AB. There's very little cold in Alaska just the southeast corner(not panhandle)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z EPS at day 12... slightly better than the 00Z run but still too cold in Alaska.  

 

Block might also be a little too far west at that time?

 

 

It seems like a cold onshore pattern, at least until after the 13-14th... Maybe we see something like January 2007 as the GFS shows, but when blended with the other models I just don't see it. We could definitely trend that way, it would not take much. I just think people are getting a little hyped up right now. There is a great chance we see a good stretch of winter weather, but I think it is good to be educated on what we are looking at here. 

[Front Ranger]

12Z EPS at day 12... slightly better than the 00Z run but still too cold in Alaska.  

 

Block might also be a little too far west at that time?

 

 

Certainly looks like an improvement over yesterday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems like we would want the top of the block to be squarely over Alaska... not sure.

More amplification for sure would be good. It's real close to being great!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS looks noticeably improved right now. 

[TT-SEA]

Certainly looks like an improvement over yesterday.

 

Slightly colder... really becoming consistent again with the placement of the anomaly centers.   

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS looks noticeably improved right now. 

Golly Gee Willickers it sure the heck does.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 12...

 

 

 

 

 

Same time from the 00Z EPS run:

 

 

 

 

That is very good consistency at that range.

[Front Ranger]

Snow yes. The cold...the jury is still out on that one. December 2008 and February 2019 show we can still score some incredibly snowy months. However, the big snows were not as widespread in either of those months as some of the great months of yesteryear and they both lacked true meaningful cold and cold anomalies (Though obviously they were both cold months.). Not only did it snow a TON in January 1950, but look at the temps... I just don't think our present climate is capable of delivering that combo. 

 

Feb 2019 was the second coldest February on record at OLM, just .4F behind 1989. And the low of 5 they saw in late Feb 2011 showed that landmark cold winter temps are still possible with the right pattern.

 

If the Feb 2019 pattern had occurred a month earlier, we likely would have witnessed the coldest January since at least 1980 or 1979 for the region.

[Gradient Keeper]

Same time from the 00Z EPS run:

 

 

 

 

That is very good consistency at that range.

Great post and comparison. Really good. Exceptional in fact.

 

00z NAM in 5 hours 54 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think this is a classic setup where the snow chances at the lowest elevations are going to go up dramatically as you go north. I would be feeling really good about this if I was Shawnigan or someone in Bellingham. Even the Puget Sound. I think PDX and the Willamette Valley are in fine shape, but this definitely is going to be a N/S setup, not backdoor which favors Oregon. Also meaning, if there is lowland snow it is going to start a day or two sooner for folks up north, so we are going to go through the forum weenie freakout from jealous PDX weenies, who will then get their own snow the next day...

 

We also have to remember, onshore flow with -8/-9C 850mb temps is not a sure thing below 500', timing and intensity of precip would matter in that scenario. 

 

I think a plausible scenario would be a decent Puget Sound snow event, a scattered 1-2" type of event south of the Columbia River, with a better chance for widespread snow PDX - south coming with some kind of shortwave associated with a 2nd push of cold air a couple days later. 

 

Just throwing scenarios out there, but that is one that seems like could happen in this kind of setup. 

[TacomaWaWx]

After all the morning model runs... although the euro isn't perfect my confidence continues to increase. In several days we should be a lot more certain. Still too early to call it a slam dunk lock in but there's a very probable chance of a decent winter pattern setting up still.

[Deweydog]

The EPS is a little goofy. It seems to brighten or dim but the anomaly centers always seem unrealistically static.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feb 2019 was the second coldest February on record at OLM, just .4F behind 1989. And the low of 5 they saw in late Feb 2011 showed that landmark cold winter temps are still possible with the right pattern.

 

If the Feb 2019 pattern had occurred a month earlier, we likely would have witnessed the coldest January since at least 1980 or 1979 for the region.

 

But it didn't. 

 

I think a lot about February 2019, to me it was something of a February version of January 1969. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I think this is a classic setup where the snow chances at the lowest elevations are going to go up dramatically as you go north. I would be feeling really good about this if I was Shawnigan or someone in Bellingham. Even the Puget Sound. I think PDX and the Willamette Valley are in fine shape, but this definitely is going to be a N/S setup, not backdoor which favors Oregon. Also meaning, if there is lowland snow it is going to start a day or two sooner for folks up north, so we are going to go through the forum weenie freakout from jealous PDX weenies, who will then get their own snow the next day...

 

We also have to remember, onshore flow with -8/-9C 850mb temps is not a sure thing below 500', timing and intensity of precip would matter in that scenario. 

 

I think a plausible scenario would be a decent Puget Sound snow event, a scattered 1-2" type of event south of the Columbia River, with a better chance for widespread snow PDX - south coming with some kind of shortwave associated with a 2nd push of cold air a couple days later. 

 

Just throwing scenarios out there, but that is one that seems like could happen in this kind of setup. 

How do you figure not backdoor? Meaning no backdoor cold? Yakima mean temp is -10c to -12c with a lot of members to -20c. I mean it's possible it's only cold onshore flow.

[TT-SEA]

Great post and comparison. Really good. Exceptional in fact.

 

00z NAM in 5 hours 54 minutes

 

 

I grabbed the wrong image.   I have like 150 maps saved on my desktop.   Its getting ridiculous!

 

I updated my post with the correct 00Z image after you quoted me.

 

Don't see any big changes on the EPS.   Strong signal for arctic air in western Canada and no end in sight.

[BLI snowman]

Late December 2003 maybe, but January 1998 was kind of an oddball.

 

850mb temps never went below -5c here and I wound up with 15" of snow.