Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Prairiedog]

Day 11 next arctic front dropping south

 

Are we rain(snow) shadowed a little bit here?

[Gradient Keeper]

This is AMAZING. 11/13 GFS runs now blast us.

[FroYoBro]

Wow. Beautiful run.

 

 

EVERYONE PULL THEIR MONEY TOGETHER TO MAKE THIS RUN VERIFY! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 270 is rain below 1000' in the valley. But then the snow level crashes to the valley floor soon after. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1969

 

Or early January 2017.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12.5 The hits keep on comin'!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hour 270 is rain below 1000' in the valley. But then the snow level crashes to the valley floor soon after. 

You must be referring to south of PDX? PDX-DLS is at least -4mb so PDX is good to go.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 13

 

[MossMan]

Anyone else getting slightly excited?

[El_Nina]

Cross-Cascade gradient in the LR too

We oughtta be glad to have some extra elevation. I feel it will help us out quite.

[FroYoBro]

Insane week long cold spell on the GFS. 

[runninthruda206]

Anyone else getting slightly excited?

About time that I’ll be losing focus at work over this

[Jesse]

Windy morning in PT!

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyone else getting slightly excited?

When we are 4 days out with arctic air crossing the border into Washington, then I might go all-in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am not going to argue about details of an hour 276 map, and I am not trying to take away from a good run. But any January 1950 or 69 comparisons are just not only premature, but not valid based on anything this run shows before hour 300. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

SW WA looks to be among the biggest winners on this run. Snowiest run for everyone since 12z yesterday.

 

 

Only 5"+ for all of us...psssh /s

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After hour 300 this run does get very cold. Let's try and manage expectations though. Nothing this run shows is "unrealistic" in my opinion, it is just a long way out. I would like to see better model agreement and colder ensemble means. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I am not going to argue about details of an hour 276 map, and I am not trying to take away from a good run. But any January 1950 or 69 comparisons are just not only premature, but not valid based on anything this run shows before hour 300. 

 

The folks in Jan 1969 were saying the same things about 1950 while constantly pressing F5 

[ShawniganLake]

GEM is still a hold out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is on board.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am not going to argue about details of an hour 276 map, and I am not trying to take away from a good run. But any January 1950 or 69 comparisons are just not only premature, but not valid based on anything this run shows before hour 300. 

Yep, a long ways to go. I will be excited when it shows this 5 or less days out. Still to far out for me. Much potential, just not real, YET!

[Front Ranger]

CMC looking improved through day 5. Stronger, more amplified ridge compared to yesterday, along with higher heights in AK.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The folks in Jan 1969 were saying the same things about 1950 while constantly pressing F5 

You mean while "pressing their punch cards into a super computer". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean for Sunday morning is now down to -6.3C at PDX...Not bad. 

[Gradient Keeper]

This would be incredibly cold long lasting stuff. Until a system or two moves in from the south north of PDX we will not moderate.

[Jesse]

I think easterlies could keep PDX from getting too warm today.

[El_Nina]

Ensemble mean for Sunday morning is now down to -6.3C at PDX...Not bad.

 

Which Sunday?

[Front Ranger]

GEM is still a hold out.

 

Yeah, I see it out to day 10 now...still wants to keep AK vortex around. Slight regression from the 0z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM is still a hold out.

I see that. It'll come around.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I see that. It'll come around.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Which Sunday?

 

January 5th

[Gradient Keeper]

AK Vortex sliding east at Day 9.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through January 13th some slight ensemble improvement. We are losing some of the warm members, but the operational (I know the ensemble is based off old GFS), is still a bit on the cold side. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mean drops to -6.9C on the 13th now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Things are continuing to improve...the more good runs we have the closer we can get to calling this pattern a lock.

[Esquimalt]

Mean drops to -6.9C on the 13th now.

Must be a strong north south gradient. Mean bottoms out at -9 here

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rooting for you in the north valley. Esp in Washington and Yamhill Counties

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Must be a strong north south gradient. Mean bottoms out at -9 here

 

It is indeed. Only -5 here.