Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[The Swamp]

Looks like weather apps are starting to show snow. Will definitely become a topic soon for the masses.

 

 

38 snow and SE winds don't go together

 

gonna be cold rain if we can't get some offshore flow

[Jesse]

Not at the station of the gods. Not even close.

Who cares? The record highs were in a well mixed airmass with southerly winds today. Had nothing to do with UHI.

[seattleweatherguy]

I think it’s a waiting game Mother Nature will do her thing. Just get ready for the ride

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

38 snow and SE winds don't go together

 

gonna be cold rain if we can't get some offshore outflow

SE is offshore

[Front Ranger]

Who cares? The record highs were in a well mixed airmass with southerly winds today. Had nothing to do with UHI.

 

 

I said nothing of UHI. That was an odd response.

[GHweatherChris]

38 snow and SE winds don't go together

 

gonna be cold rain if we can't get some offshore flow

SE winds work here in favorable air masses!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp is dropping here now. Down to 46.

[TacomaWaWx]

Freaking heat wave out there...59 degrees...was 51 at 4pm. Really close to 60 degrees. This is the warmest we have been here in Tacoma since 10/11 (60/39).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's high of 57 broke the Silver Falls record of 55, set in... 1962.

[TT-SEA]

61 here... Feels straight up balmy outside.

 

Soak it up while it lasts. Might not see these temps again for months due to the upcoming dual arctic blasts later this month and all of February. In fact, who knows, it might be years before we hit 61 again with the whole mini ice age coming up.

If the rest if January is cold... I have a very good feeling about some warm days in February.

[snow_wizard]

Today's high of 57 broke the Silver Falls record of 55, set in... 1962.

 

Weird.  1962 had an Arctic blast just after this.

[High Desert Mat?]

62 here today after blowing away the old record of 56 set in 2012. Glad we are able to still break the old warm records after all this ice age jargon.

[TT-SEA]

66 in North Bend right now.

 

Warmer than many summer evenings at 3 hours past sunset.

[snow_wizard]

If the rest if January is cold... I have a very good feeling about some warm days in February.

 

In a warm neutral ENSO regime it often does torch after a prolonged cold wave.  March just winter was a good example of that, although that was more like weak Nino.  The question is how long will the cold wave last.  It's also possible we could go into a colder ENSO regime on very short notice this year.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

66 in North Bend right now.

Warmer than many summer evenings at 3 hours past sunset.

Wow that is crazy!! 43 here 23 degree difference.

[TT-SEA]

In a warm neutral ENSO regime it often does torch after a prolonged cold wave. March just winter was a good example of that, although that was more like weak Nino. The question is how long will the cold wave last. It's also possible we could go into a colder ENSO regime on very short notice this year.

I doubt it. I have a very good feeling about this spring and summer. Particularly if we have serious cold and snow. Feels like an early 20th century regime with the extremes. There was some very cold winters and spectacular springs and summers back then as you know.

 

I really like that period in the historical data.

[Timmy Supercell]

SE is offshore

SE winds work here in favorable air masses!!

 

A handful of my decent snow events involved SE/SSE winds. 2012 comes to mind.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NAMMY. It may be nothing, but Day 2.5 to 3.5(end of run) kind of seems to indicate the Alaskan vortex progressively sliding off to the east/southeast. One could extrapolate outward if that continued perhaps to Day 4.5 and that would push it out much sooner. We'll see what 00z GFS shows....

 

[Front Ranger]

If the rest if January is cold... I have a very good feeling about some warm days in February.

[Meatyorologist]

00z NAMMY. It may be nothing, but Day 2.5 to 3.5(end of run) kind of seems to indicate the Alaskan vortex progressively sliding off to the east/southeast. One could extrapolate outward if that continued perhaps to Day 4.5 and that would push it out much sooner. We'll see what 00z GFS shows....

 

nam_z500a_namer_fh60-84.gif

Extrapolation gang rise up!

[MossMan]

If I remember correctly we had a good SE wind blowing on 2/10/19 which brought many more inches of snow and no change over.

[Randyc321]

66 in North Bend right now.

Warmer than many summer evenings at 3 hours past sunset.

Kitsap missed this warmth. 47 and raining on Bainbridge Island.

[TT-SEA]

I do.

 

I could see a flip to a week of upper 50s and low 60s with offshore flow.

[High Desert Mat?]

I actually have a good feeling we will have an average spring with lots of showers and probably a few more up in the foothills as it squeezes the moisture out of the atmosphere. Could be a really wet one up there!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If I remember correctly we had a good SE wind blowing on 2/10/19 which brought many more inches of snow and no change over.

A SE wind is a hood canal special every time.

[El_Nina]

I don't think wind ever comes from the SE here.

[FroYoBro]

I am positive the new ice age will begin in February. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Weird.  1962 had an Arctic blast just after this.

 

There's a couple vague similarities to that winter in this area. Snow blasted southern OR around Thanksgiving in 1961, and I'm pretty sure everything was also bare looking (just like now) on New Years 1962.

[MossMan]

Thought I should take a pic of the last of the 50’s for a long time! Temp dropping bigly and the RH going up!

[Blizzard777]

61 here... Feels straight up balmy outside.

 

I picked a bad day to wear a sweater! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Thought I should take a pic of the last of the 50’s for a long time! Temp dropping bigly and the RH going up!

 

It'll still be 50s here tomorrow and Monday so if you enjoy them then you'll know where to go.

[snow_wizard]

Just looked at the ENSO forecast and the CFS looks quite confident we will be heading into a Nina this summer.  Assuming this winter delivers we could be looking at quite a run of decent winters 2016 - 17 through 2020-21.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think wind ever comes from the SE here.

Happens all the time in my area.

[ewnichols25]

Wow that is crazy!! 43 here 23 degree difference.

Same here with 45 degrees in NW Seattle. Too far away from Cascade downsloping.

[snow_wizard]

Thought I should take a pic of the last of the 50’s for a long time! Temp dropping bigly and the RH going up!

 

A little bit of Trump lingo there!

[TT-SEA]

Just looked at the ENSO forecast and the CFS looks quite confident we will be heading into a Nina this summer. Assuming this winter delivers we could be looking at quite a run of decent winters 2016 - 17 through 2020-21.

Phil thinks Nino.

 

Still could be a great winter though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Strong signal for long duration cold. Good to know! I would even be happy with half of what January 1950 delivered

Even half of Jan 1950 would still be plenty epic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow Monday looks like a soaker  up there in W. Washington. 

[snow_wizard]

At this point I'm going to take wild guess and say the cold wave will last 15 to 20 days when it sets in with most places getting at least one or two decent snowfalls.  Historically speaking a cold snap of a couple of weeks isn't that hard to pull off in January.

[El_Nina]

Happens all the time in my area.

We get winds from the S, SW, W and North with onshore flow events. We get NE wind from gorge outflow and straight East with downsloping but I just can't ever think of a time I felt a breeze come out of the southeast.