Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Winterdog]

I've been trying to be positive but I'm just not feeling it.  Screw it.  The Euro is probably gonna make the GFS look great. Our historic month is only going to be historic for it's ability to make every weather weenie miserable.

[Front Ranger]

Tim and Justin went all in. This is what happens.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

How bad are they? Not up yet on my link.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've been trying to be positive but I'm just not feeling it.  Screw it.  The Euro is probably gonna make the GFS look great. Our historic month is only going to be historic for it's ability to make every weather weenie miserable.

 

Always just past 10 days.

[Requiem]

Well, at least celebrate the fact that it's more exciting than split flow

 

Plus a huge number of you had more than a foot of snow in a couple days last year, take solace in the fact that you got to experience that.

[MossMan]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

At this point I'm going to take wild guess and say the cold wave will last 15 to 20 days when it sets in with most places getting at least one or two decent snowfalls. Historically speaking a cold snap of a couple of weeks isn't that hard to pull off in January.

I love your confidence!

[GHweatherChris]

Well, at least celebrate the fact that it's more exciting than split flow

 

Plus a huge number of you had more than a foot of snow in a couple days last year, take solace in the fact that you got to experience that.

My backyard doesn't care about your backyard.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble is fine.  A large number of members still drop to -12 or lower over Seattle.  You guys know the drill on this stuff!

[GHweatherChris]

I long for the days we just had newspapers and the nightly weather forecasts on TV, streetlight watching just isn't the same anymore.

[Requiem]

My backyard doesn't care about your backyard.

Mine either, but you at least have to appreciate the snow you did get last year. But if we're up to me, you'd bet you'd see more than a few snowless decades.

[runninthruda206]

What happened? Haven’t checked here since 18z

[TT-SEA]

The ensemble is fine. A large number of members still drop to -12 or lower over Seattle. You guys know the drill on this stuff!

Permanent western cold.

 

Feels like February... really does. Pattern does not change or move. Just permanent cold. Normally it ebbs and flows. None of the ensembles show that. Not a shot of cold air and then moderation like I am used to seeing. Cold air just parks itself in the same spot for weeks.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I know the 2M temps are basically a crock but the temps at Bellingham are never forecast to reach 40 from the 9th through the end of the rum on the 20th.

 

Must have a well-stocked liquor locker for the upcoming wintry weather!

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement on the GEM tonight.  Good high latitude blocking which ties into the PNA block.

[MossMan]

What happened? Haven’t checked here since 18z

Winter is over. Get your beach balls and spandex out of the closet, it’s split flow until April!

[Weiner Warrior]

I don't like snow or 12 degree highs anyway. Gappy for 50's and rain

[snow_wizard]

I long for the days we just had newspapers and the nightly weather forecasts on TV, streetlight watching just isn't the same anymore.

 

I kind of agree with you.  The models can drive a person crazy sometimes.  The surprise and mystery has kind of been taken out of it.

[MossMan]

I long for the days we just had newspapers and the nightly weather forecasts on TV, streetlight watching just isn't the same anymore.

Yep. At this point all we would know about what might be coming is the NOAA weather radio folks saying “The 6-10 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precip.”

[MikeInEverett]

Well, at least celebrate the fact that it's more exciting than split flow

 

Plus a huge number of you had more than a foot of snow in a couple days last year, take solace in the fact that you got to experience that.

I know you’re just venting, because I used to do the same thing on here three or four years ago. but I feel like every other day you mention the fact that you didn’t score as much snow as this place or you didn’t get as much wind as this place. I get it. It sucks, but we all go through it at one point or another. There’s no need to complain about it to everyone else on here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Permanent western cold.

 

Feels like February... really does. Pattern does not change or move. Just permanent cold. Normally it ebbs and flows. None of the ensembles show that. Not a shot of cold air and then moderation like I am used to seeing. Cold air just parks itself in the same spot for weeks.

Well said.

[Gradient Keeper]

The joys and agony of model riding!

 

EURO TIME!

[Requiem]

I know you’re just venting, because I used to do the same thing on here three or four years ago. but I feel like every other day you mention the fact that you didn’t score as much snow as this place or you didn’t get as much wind as this place. I get it. It sucks, but we all go through it at one point or another. There’s no need to complain about it to everyone else on here.

Seems that other members do similar things but I get called out on it a lot more. I get it, noted. That original comment was meant to be positive, but I guess no one's hearing it. Yeah, I'll keep my posting to minimum like everyone wants, I hear ya.

[Gradient Keeper]

My thoughts: No idea. Stay tuned for similar thoughts tomorrow!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I know you’re just venting, because I used to do the same thing on here three or four years ago. but I feel like every other day you mention the fact that you didn’t score as much snow as this place or you didn’t get as much wind as this place. I get it. It sucks, but we all go through it at one point or another. There’s no need to complain about it to everyone else on here.

 

Plenty of Seattle area members on this forum were making similar complaints prior to last February. It's understandable: PDX really got skunked last winter, and if you were a PDX snow lover, that sucked.

 

Odds are if someone gets skunked this year, it probably won't be PDX. Random chance says someplace else will get unlucky.

[snow_wizard]

The joys and agony of model riding!

 

EURO TIME!

 

Yup...nothing has really changed.  It's very easy to get wrapped up in one really good or one really bad model run.

 

This thing is going to come down to block placement and the best tool we have for that is the EPS.  According to that it will be perfect.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yep. At this point all we would know about what might be coming is the NOAA weather radio folks saying “The 6-10 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precip.”

 

Honestly, that's about all we know today even with all those model maps. The models really aren't that accurate way out in clown range. All they are good for is sometimes (if there is model consensus) getting a hint at what general trends might be.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yep. At this point all we would know about what might be coming is the NOAA weather radio folks saying “The 6-10 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precip.”

And in a rare case they would say Much below normal.

[MikeInEverett]

Seems that other members do similar things but I get called out on it a lot more. I get it, noted. That original comment was meant to be positive, but I guess no one's hearing it. Yeah, I'll keep my posting to minimum like everyone wants, I hear ya.

You’re fine dude.. I enjoy your posts on here I’ve just noticed that you mention missing out on stuff a bit too often. That’s all I’m trying to say.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[MossMan]

And in a rare case they would say Much below normal.

That’s when I would get quite excited, they would be saying that here in a few days!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I remember waiting for 245pm and am to arrive for the updated forecast. I would set my alarm at 2:40 am when fun weather was coming so I could listen to the weather radio. First the marine forecast would come out and you knew when it said snow it was game on!

[MossMan]

Pouring! Up to .11” in the last 20min and temp down to 45.

[Front Ranger]

Honestly, that's about all we know today even with all those model maps. The models really aren't that accurate way out in clown range. All they are good for is sometimes (if there is model consensus) getting a hint at what general trends might be.

Pretty much.

 

Higher resolution, more data...but still very inaccurate beyond 6 days.

[HighlandExperience]

Plenty of Seattle area members on this forum were making similar complaints prior to last February. It's understandable: PDX really got skunked last winter, and if you were a PDX snow lover, that sucked.

 

Odds are if someone gets skunked this year, it probably won't be PDX. Random chance says someplace else will get unlucky.

Pretty sure it’s Eugenes turn to miss out.

[snow_wizard]

This talk about the pre model days and the NOAA weather radio reminds me of when the Seattle Times used to have a daily hand drawn surface pressure map of the NE Pacific and Western North America.  The maps also had fronts and precip type symbols drawn in.  For many years that was the closest thing I saw to a weather model.

[MossMan]

I remember waiting for 245pm and am to arrive for the updated forecast. I would set my alarm at 2:40 am when fun weather was coming so I could listen to the weather radio. First the marine forecast would come out and you knew when it said snow it was game on!

Whenever they would say “Forks, 1/4 mile visibility snow and fog, 29, north at 25” you knew we were golden!

[MossMan]

Pretty sure it’s Eugenes turn to miss out.

Silver Falls.