1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[jaster220]

18z Euro

 

  Euro snow map..welcome back my friend. Where ya been the last 3 days??

[bud2380]

3k NAM with 4" tomorrow.

 

[Hawkeye]

The latest HRRR and NAM only have a couple hours of precip left for me once the sleet finally changes to snow, so wave #1 is largely a bust here.  This is what I expected, though, so I did not have my hopes up.

[jaster220]

I'm really hoping for the SE trend to be real cuz this looks like a rough mess:

 

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Congrats on joining the winter headline party! Don't want any damaging ice, but per DTX's update, it looks like that nasty stuff will stay NW of Macomb. How you feeling about this storm? 

[ToastedRavs]

What is causing the precip to fall as freezing rain? It is 30 degrees outside, below freezing so I would think it's cold enough for snow.

Classic warm nose of air aloft causing snow to melt as it falls and then freeze on contact. That equals freezing rain

[Hawkeye]

Latest HRRR and NAM are similar tomorrow and both show several hours of at least light snow here from wave 2.  I'd take that.  Daytime snow would be nice even if it's not heavy.

[jaster220]

Not sure if this was posted. 18z GFS looking waaaay snowier for Chicago (I see you Tom) and even has a strange lobe of decent stuff near my county

 

[Hawkeye]

It's mostly snow here now, although my north window is still being pinged.

[hlcater]

It is really coming down out there. Probably 1”/hr rates at a minimum. Shame it won’t last that long.

[Tom]

Not sure if this was posted. 18z GFS looking waaaay snowier for Chicago (I see you Tom) and even has a strange lobe of decent stuff near my county

 

20200110 18z GFS h39 KCH snow.png

Both NAM’a agree and have increased totals over N IL! On my phone so can’t post maps. 12km spittin out 8”, 3km 6” using Kuchera for ORD. Nice to see a wrapped up storm with a solid pivot and defo zone.

[Madtown]

Still a mixed bag of crapola here

[Iowawx]

Just measured 1" of snow. The changeover from sleet to snow occured around 7:30pm so the snowfall rate is easily 1"/per hour. Should add up quickly.

[East Dubzz]

Well, this system may not be exactly what I wanted, but it’s nice to see winter outside finally.

[Grizzcoat]

Last band moving through DSM right now means business. Vis probably 1 to 1.25SM in very efficient flakes. Temp 18F. Ratios probably 17-20 to 1

Up to 3.8".

[Stormy]

I'm kind of in a dry hole for awhile now and it looks like I won't get to much more. Quite icy out there. It's been awhile since I've seen one of these. Probably around a quarter inch on trees etc. and they are crackling in the wind. I really don't want snow on top of ice. I don't think the road past my place is very icy since it was 60° just yesterday and the pavement wasn't that cold, plus the road crew applied some stuff before it hit.

[bud2380]

finally switched to sleet here about 30 minutes ago.  Temp down to 30.2 Looks like the band back by Des Moines is showing some signs of filling back in, could allow for another hour or two of precip.  If we can change to snow soon, maybe I can squeeze out an inch tonight. 

[Madtown]

Snow/sleet only now

[Stormy]

I'm guessing I got around a half inch of rain but temp was mostly 31° so ice accrual wasn't that much.

[Madtown]

And just like that all snow n 28....let's see if we an stayonly flakes

[Hawkeye]

It's mostly snow here, but sleet is still mixing in.  The snow/sleet line has been nearly stationary for a couple hours.

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON says Cedar Rapids is done for good by midnight, with wave 2 a total miss.

[jaster220]

Both NAM’a agree and have increased totals over N IL! On my phone so can’t post maps. 12km spittin out 8”, 3km 6” using Kuchera for ORD. Nice to see a wrapped up storm with a solid pivot and defo zone.

 

NAM's tip-toeing it's way towards mby as well. I think it's been NW for soooo long now, it's having a hard time making the adjustment. This will be a YUUGE victory for you and winter in general if the snowier trends verify, eh? 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Congrats on joining the winter headline party! Don't want any damaging ice, but per DTX's update, it looks like that nasty stuff will stay NW of Macomb. How you feeling about this storm? 

Thx amigo!

 

Well, I really hope my area does not get any major icing. I am forecasted to received .50"+ of ice and then, couple of inches of snow on top of it. This SE trend really changed my forecast. I was supposed to get all rain instead. Looks like the GFS leads the way again and Euro follows it. I knew the GFS was on to something. Temps pummet tomorrow afternoon.

[westMJim]

I am not going to say too much other than to say at this time it feels and smells like spring here with at temperature of 46 

[Niko]

NAM's tip-toeing it's way towards mby as well. I think it's been NW for soooo long now, it's having a hard time making the adjustment. This will be a YUUGE victory for you and winter in general if the snowier trends verify, eh? 

The NAM gets the ice as far south as Indiana. Wow! South trend is on a roll.

[Tom]

NAM's tip-toeing it's way towards mby as well. I think it's been NW for soooo long now, it's having a hard time making the adjustment. This will be a YUUGE victory for you and winter in general if the snowier trends verify, eh?

If I can score 4-6” that’ll be a win. The Ukie has been steadfast developing a strong defo band. Let’s see what the rest of the models show tonight. I’m about to hit the sack and call it a night. This guy is exhausted!

[jaster220]

I am not going to say too much other than to say at this time it feels and smells like spring here with at temperature of 46 

 

Agree..and so strange being under a WSWarning already hoisted since morning with these conditions. Down here there has been a steady light drizzle/mist tho and I did quite a bit of walking in it this evening. 

[Madtown]

Looks like all the moisture is getting shunted off to the east. IA is drying up as it gets here.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS pretty weak with snow in Iowa tomorrow.  I get little to nothing.

[Madtown]

Back to sleet

[Niko]

This will be a unprecedented Winterstorm for SEMI. No dought. A lot of rain, possibly all time record for Detroit for the month of January, followed by ice and snow. Every river in SEMI will be above flood stage.Widespread ice accumulation w power outages and tree damage is likely. Finally, snow accumulations on top of that w all floods icing up as the colder air sets in. Its going to get real messy.

[WBadgersW]

Back to sleet

I'm not super pumped with this storm. It's such a shame all this rain isn't snow.

[Niko]

Per TWC:

 

Ice storm warnings have been issued for southeastern Michigan and northern New York, where enough ice is expected to accumulate that damage will occur to trees and powerlines. Travel will be impossible in these areas.

[Hawkeye]

00z RGEM now barely even gets snow into Iowa from wave 2.

 

Worst case for this system was mix all day today, then wave 2 miss.  That's pretty much how it's playing out.

[Clinton]

Per TWC:

 

Ice storm warnings have been issued for southeastern Michigan and northern New York, where enough ice is expected to accumulate that damage will occur to trees and powerlines. Travel will be impossible in these areas.

Things started to look bad for ice up your way this morning.  I hope it doesn't cause any issues for yua.

[Clinton]

I'm beginning to wonder if my area even needs a advisory at this point, models are trickling down to very little.

[Niko]

Things started to look bad for ice up your way this morning.  I hope it doesn't cause any issues for yua.

Hope not. We will see how it ends up, but for now, it looks very disruptive.

[jaster220]

I know Tom cashed his chips for the night, but some RAP runs have been amped with 50 kt gusts off Lk Michigan in Chicago. As much as I cheer amping storms, in this case with the warmth, it would trash my (now) improving snow chances. Hopefully it will settle down just enough to join the other more moderate outcomes. 

[Grizzcoat]

Really bad ice storms are closest thing the Midwest has to the results of what a Hurricane/Tropical Storm does. Tornadoes are too limited in coverage. Loss of power for sometimes weeks- roads closed with trees etc. Been there done that too darn many times. It beyond sucks. Only good thing is you can save you food with the colder weather outside in coolers if you lose power. 90F heat after a cane' - no such luck.