Perturbed Member Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 33F. I'm ready for the next round of brief 20 minute snow in the AM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The 18z ECMWF still paints a stripe of snow over this area late tonight. It would be nice to end this on a positive note. One thing very much on the plus side is the timing couldn't be better for time of day. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Really good news on the ECMWF weeklies! We have an outstandingly strong signal for GOA ridge again by Feb 10 or so. The control model goes epic while the mean has a very robust signal for so far out. Good to hear. I hope we can pull off another February miracle. It would be nice to see the Willamette Valley and PDX score a nice event. Hopefully after the coming Sunday/Monday torch we can cool things off a bit at the surface. Would be nice to see SLE at least keep their average high this month below 50 (They are well under it as of now.). Up here we have done pretty well. Only got up to 36 today, and we have had a good stretch of below average weather up here. Much better than the valley. These cool airmasses with strong onshore flow tend to not put up very impressive cold anomalies in the valley, but above 1000' the anomaly is a lot closer to the 850mb anomaly. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Some places will probably see there coldest lows tonight during this entire cold snap. Down to 27 here.My lowest low was 20.2. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LaPineLurker Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Daily fuzz could be worse. Bet it trends down in the next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Really good news on the ECMWF weeklies! We have an outstandingly strong signal for GOA ridge again by Feb 10 or so. The control model goes epic while the mean has a very robust signal for so far out.Similar to what the gfs originally spit out for the mid Jan event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 ***FEBRUARY ALERT*** Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 ***FEBRUARY ALERT***It's a lock. There is literally nothing that can go wrong. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's a lock. There is literally nothing that can go wrong.I find it amazing the gfs latched onto the pattern so far out and then when it was 90 hrs out I started pooping on us. Would of been interesting to see how the old gfs would of done. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 2/14 I fly out the 13th. I feel me and you will be sweating bullets watching the long range. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I find it amazing the gfs latched onto the pattern so far out and then when it was 90 hrs out I started pooping on us. Would of been interesting to see how the old gfs would of done.ECMWF weeklies look quite different than the last ECMWF weeklies... not sure how much models can really predict beyond 2 weeks. And even 2 weeks is just a general signal at best. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's a lock. There is literally nothing that can go wrong. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://nypost.com/2020/01/16/massive-asteroid-could-be-dangerous-to-life-on-earth-if-it-breaks-up/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwj9z_D704nnAhU8JzQIHYlYBRQQ0PADegQIBBAT&usg=AOvVaw1m7GvBVEeh9coI2G6QhqMA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 There is definitely a fairly strong retrogression signal around the 2nd week of February with a trough hanging out in the West thereafter, FWIW. Good way to present it quickly. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Had 6.00" of snow today, started 3am and ending at 5pm. There is now a depth of 13", my 2nd highest depth I've measured in this area next to Jan 2017. Drifts are higher, some around 16-18". Since Jan 9th 18.5" fell. If the rest of January continues at this pace I would either match or surpass 2017! I'm currently at 31.75" for the season, very close to the average as of today. Here's multiple images I uploaded to imgur.https://imgur.com/a/Dzpx3ZP 5 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I fly out the 13th. I feel me and you will be sweating bullets watching the long range.I fly out on the 16th! This arctic blast needs to plow through by the 2nd with a reload on the 8th. Then the thaw can commence by the 13th! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 It is interesting to hear about Februaries weeklies and see 1995 as a pattern analog for the 8-14 day period. Late January and early February 1995 was very torchy and spring like, only to be interrupted by a brief but intense arctic blast February 12-14th. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Some places will probably see there coldest lows tonight during this entire cold snap. Down to 27 here.22 and falling like a rock here. So far the coldest I've been during this event is 14˚F aka -10˚C. Some guy on the BC forum who is sort of a joker was predicting temps around -10˚C tonight if it cleared off; he may just end up being right! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I find it amazing the gfs latched onto the pattern so far out and then when it was 90 hrs out I started pooping on us. Would of been interesting to see how the old gfs would of done. Given how goofy the ensembles which are based on the old GFS got, I would think it would have fared poorly too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Had 6.00" of snow today, started 3am and ending at 5pm. There is now a depth of 13", my 2nd highest depth I've measured in this area next to Jan 2017. Drifts are higher, some around 16-18". Since Jan 9th 18.5" fell. If the rest of January continues at this pace I would either match or surpass 2017! I'm currently at 31.75" for the season, very close to the average as of today. Here's multiple images I uploaded to imgur.https://imgur.com/a/Dzpx3ZP Very nice! That splitty trough the middle of next week may give you a couple inches. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Nice to finally have something fun to track. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 This does look pretty nice. Only 744 hours away! LOCK IT IN. I can't wait to watch the models every night that show 55" of snow in 10 hrs only to get .8" that's my favorite feeling ever!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Nice to finally have something fun to track.We just have to wait a week for the next run. It will go by so quickly. Take a short nap and it will be here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 No. Flooding is not even close to being a concern. And there is still lowland snow on Saturday morning.Flooding may be a concern. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=hydrologic%20outlook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Since last Sunday evening, I received 8.5 inches of snow in Poulsbo (For those persons who live around here, I live on the hill, directly behind Poulsbo Junior High). Worked out pretty good for those persons north of Silverdale--that is, if they like lots of snow. That was a solid week. Looking forward to next month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 shower50% rain50% snow 36.4*before and after as well! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Surprised to see that -3 at K-Falls yesterday tied a record from 1917. I would have thought their daily record would be a bit colder than that. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Can someone plz post the Kuchera maps for the weeklies? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Flooding may be a concern. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=hydrologic%20outlook I guess the Olympics could get some heavy rain... but the snow level is going to be quite low and that is a river that floods easy. Its not even thought for rivers off the Cascades. Most of that precip with be snow and the precip amounts are not that great. We had WAY more in mid December and earlier this month. About 1 inch of precip in the Cascades in that time frame... and all snow above 2,000 feet. That is not a flooding situation. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Flooding may be a concern. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=hydrologic%20outlookThe Skokomish floods every time a squirrel pees in it. 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 We just have to wait a week for the next run. It will go by so quickly. Take a short nap and it will be here. Sounds good. I'll be heading out to Oklahoma and Colorado for a week then, so I am not too heartbroken the last week of the month is not looking particularly exciting. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Sounds good. I'll be heading out to Oklahoma and Colorado for a week then, so I am not too heartbroken the last week of the month is not looking particularly exciting.The next month might not be too exciting. But it's impossible to much of anything beyond 2 weeks... could change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I guess the Olympics could get some heavy rain... but the snow level is going to be quite low and that is a river that floods easy. Its not even thought for rivers off the Cascades. Most of that precip with be snow and the precip amounts are not that great. We had WAY more in mid December and earlier this month. About 1 inch of precip in the Cascades in that time frame... and all snow above 2,000 feet. That is not a flooding situation. I don't disagree with any of that. I just noted that flooding can be a concern as we warm up with heavy rain--even in the lowlands if there's enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more flooding headlines in the next 48 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I don't disagree with any of that. I just noted that flooding can be a concern as we warm up with heavy rain--even in the lowlands if there's enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more flooding headlines in the next 48 hours.The only meaningful precip over the next few days is tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 00z GFS shows a little snow in the WV by 4am. Doesn't last long, but interesting. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 00z GFS shows a little snow in the WV by 4am. Doesn't last long, but interesting. 36F with a DP of 34F isn't gonna get it done. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The next month might not be too exciting. But it's impossible to much of anything beyond 2 weeks... could change. February is our month now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The only meaningful precip over the next few days is tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Which is exactly what my original post noted yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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