Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s about f’ing time. Phil’s known about this for years!

 

Apparently someone isn’t familiar with the term “mandatory reporter.”

 

He missed the two hour class I taught on the subject yesterday.

[jakeinthevalley]

It’s about f’ing time. Phil’s known about this for years!

 

C'mon!

 

Apparently someone isn’t familiar with the term “mandatory reporter.”

[MikeInEverett]

This is more of a banter topic, but it really seems the only type of publicity the MLB can generate is bad publicity. I feel like baseball is still a great sport, but the league does a terrible job at promoting it.

MLB’s lack of marketing for their best players and old timers trying to buzz kill fun things like bat flipping and saying the game needs to be played “the right way” is really holding the game back.

 

Needs a new marketing team and a new commissioner especially after this Astros debacle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty impressive storm for the Okanagan valley. 9 inches at Tonasket is big for there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

MLB’s lack of marketing for their best players and old timers trying to buzz kill fun things like bat flipping and saying the game needs to be played “the right way” is really holding the game back.

 

Needs a new marketing team and a new commissioner especially after this Astros debacle.

 

Granted I was more into baseball than 99% of kids, but growing up in the 90s all my friends knew who Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, and other stars were. 

[ShawniganLake]

Well this would be an interesting pattern...

 

Shows a heat wave in Scandinavia. Phil says that’s good for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 29. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shows a heat wave in Scandinavia. Phil says that’s good for us.

 

I noticed that. 570 heights over Stockholm.

[jakeinthevalley]

Granted I was more into baseball than 99% of kids, but growing up in the 90s all my friends knew who Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, and other stars were.

Same could be said for the NWS, but we all know who Jaya is.

 

I even have his Rookie card.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like a decent overrunning event over here tomorrow night. 925 and 850 temps stay below 0c all night with around 1 inch of liquid falling. 6-8 inches look reasonable.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a decent overrunning event over here tomorrow night. 925 and 850 temps stay below 0c all night with around 1 inch of liquid falling. 6-8 inches look reasonable.

I haven’t been able to keep up the past couple Days. Did your area get much snow with the SE flow yesterday?

[Cloud]

It’s trying to squeeze out one last cold so gonna see if there are flakes for tonight. It’s unlikely per the models, so SEA will end up with 0.7” of snow for the week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I haven’t been able to keep up the past couple Days. Did your area get much snow with the SE flow yesterday?

4.5 inches. The front was anemic. Pretty sure tomorrow night will be a larger snow. The way these overrunning events work here are pretty much everyone remains snow up to the front passage. I usually just look at the 925 and 850 temps and look at liquid to determine amounts. Models never get it right on these it seems.

[ShawniganLake]

The Fraser outflow is hanging tough.

 

25F at YVR

17F at YXX

13F at Hope.

 

Wasn’t the Euro calling for 40s all the way up to SW BC by Thursday afternoon just like 2 days ago.

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like it's back down to 19F at BLI. Meanwhile it looks like it's 34F just to the south in Fairhaven.

[snow_wizard]

This run puts Alaska in the deep freezer again in the long range.

 

 

 

Looking like some serious deja vu.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Fraser outflow is hanging tough.

 

25F at YVR

17F at YXX

13F at Hope.

 

Wasn’t the Euro calling for 40s all the way up to SW BC by Thursday afternoon just like 2 days ago.

 

Winds have shifted back to NE in Victoria I wonder if any of it will make it back across the Strait tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's back down to 19F at BLI. Meanwhile it looks like it's 34F just to the south in Fairhaven.

 

I was going to point the amazing Fraser outflow influence going on right now.  34 in Mount Vernon, 19 in Bellingham, and 32 in Vancouver.  Amazing cold slot!

 

Check out these daily highs and lows for Sumas.  This is some serious old school stuff.

 

12. 42 / 20

13. 20 / 14

14. 14 / 11

15. 22 / 10

16. 26 / 16

 

The north to south gradient on this sucker has been amazing.

[TT-SEA]

The Fraser outflow is hanging tough.

 

25F at YVR

17F at YXX

13F at Hope.

 

Wasn’t the Euro calling for 40s all the way up to SW BC by Thursday afternoon just like 2 days ago.

That was the Thursday high... not sure of timing. But there is an area up there that can swing 20 degrees very quickly with slight shifts. I imagine no model can accurately predict the specifics in the area where the outflow meets maritime air.

 

And it was always shown to turn colder tonight and tomorrow for the entire region.

[ShawniganLake]

Winds have shifted back to NE in Victoria I wonder if any of it will make it back across the Strait tonight.

That would certainly make tomorrow night interesting for the lower elevations. It’ll probably be borderline up here but I think it’ll snow for awhile.

[umadbro]

Wilsonville-Albany has probably the best shot at a quick inch or so tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was going to point the amazing Fraser outflow influence going on right now.  34 in Mount Vernon, 19 in Bellingham, and 32 in Vancouver.  Amazing cold slot!

 

Check out these daily highs and lows for Sumas.  This is some serious old school stuff.

 

12. 42 / 20

13. 20 / 14

14. 14 / 11

15. 22 / 10

16. 26 / 16

 

The north to south gradient on this sucker has been amazing.

 

That is incredible. I would love to spend a few winters in that area. 

[umadbro]

Looks like a quick hitter if it does pan out.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS does look interesting in the longer range.  It's back to the flat NE Pacific / Western North America ridge with another ridge developing well out over the Pacific and brutal cold in Alaska.

[snow_wizard]

That is incredible. I would love to spend a few winters in that area. 

 

It is a fascinating climate up there.  They used to get wickedly cold Januaries on a somewhat regular basis.  Some were ones that were cold region wide and some were just barely over the border jobs like this.

[umadbro]

I wish people would stop using the GFS for anything more than 72 hours out.

[HighlandExperience]

It is a fascinating climate up there. They used to get wickedly cold Januaries on a somewhat regular basis. Some were ones that were cold region wide and some were just barely over the border jobs like this.

Off topic but I notice the 00z ECMWF was putting 1-2 inches of light snow from issaquah down hwy 18 in Covington/Kent. I’m skeptical but maybe?

[TT-SEA]

Was just down in North Bend... roads are still mostly snow covered and a mess. There is always talk around here about the difference between Snoqualmie and North Bend in terms of road maintenance during snow events. North Bend does not use sand or salt and also does not scrap down to the pavement with the plows since it supposedly causes damage to the plow and road. The roads in Snoqualmie are mostly clean down to the pavement.

 

Our roads up here are maintained by King County and they have no problem using sand and scrapping down to the pavement. So in this type of situation with uniform snow amounts... the road often gets better as I go up the hill.

 

There is still lots of snow in the valley too...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A deadly avalanche in NE Oregon's Elkhorn Mountains over the weekend. Be careful out there on your snow machines Snow Mizer. 

 

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/01/man-dies-in-elkhorn-mountains-avalanche-officials-say.html

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A deadly avalanche in NE Oregon's Elkhorn Mountains over the weekend. Be careful out there on your snow machines Snow Mizer.

 

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/01/man-dies-in-elkhorn-mountains-avalanche-officials-say.html

Always strikes a nerve when I see this. Never talk about it much but I've been In a couple small avalanches when i was riding snowmobiles professionally and it is scary. Looking back I can't believe the shitt I did and where I went on a snowmobile. If you've ever watched any of the crazy videos of people riding up avalanche shoots at 70mph on a snowmobile that was what I did. Terrible to see these things happen.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still showing a really warm day down south on Sunday...

 

[umadbro]

00Z ECMWF still showing a really warm day down south on Sunday...

 

BAN HIM!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z ECMWF still showing a really warm day down south on Sunday...

 

 

You know, I would not mind this. Melt off the rest of the snow and maybe get some work done in the yard or go for a short hike with my wife and daughter before I head out to Oklahoma again.

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

26F. That last flurry dropped a nice fresh coating of snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim can you post the euro precip map for tomorrow night please.

[TT-SEA]

Tim can you post the euro precip map for tomorrow night please.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Central Oregon Coast-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-
Including the cities of Lincoln City, Newport, Cape Foulweather,
Yachats, Florence, Grande Ronde, Burnt Woods, Tidewater,
Swisshome, and Veneta
1042 PM PST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 3
inches, mainly above 500 feet. Beaches and coastal towns could
see brief, spotty, slushy accumulations of up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Central Coast and Coast Range of Western Oregon.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM PST Friday.

[TT-SEA]

Snowfall... 4 p.m. Friday through 4 p.m. Saturday.

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has moved up the timing of the best dynamics tonight for this area which means we're not going to get as much time to cool or possibly see some clearing to freeze things up.  Not a good thing for those of us who want to see some sticking snow.  If we can get some decent precip intensity it could still work.  Currently 34 here.