Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Blizzard777]

Current snapshot of the world

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Gargantuan WWB cycle has established of late..this latest one features healthier convergence east of the dateline to help depress the thermocline further, perhaps triggering a stronger downwelling OKW.

 

So maybe we finally get that stronger niño in 2020/21 to finish draining the warm pool and prime the multiyear Niña thereafter.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Or maybe it peaks in Spring/Summer and is neutral by next winter

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Dumping in Bend at the moment. Looks like that low out there may not curl as far north as forecast. Surprise for someone possible.

[Phil]

Or maybe it peaks in Spring/Summer and is neutral by next winter

That would be difficult to pull off given seasonal dynamics that favor peak ENSO amplitudes during boreal autumn/winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

That is incredible. I would love to spend a few winters in that area. 

 

I’m spending my first one. It’s certainly been fun. It’s about 15 degrees F warmer in downtown than it is here in my neighborhood on the far north end of Bellingham right now! Just crazy. And it’s been that way all night, from what I can tell.

 

The more interesting weather was hardly the main reason I chose to move here, but I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t a reason at all. We get more frequent wind storms, too.

[Skagit Weather]

Dropped to 30F overnight with a little bit of clearing. Some snow showers moved through around 2 a.m. and dropped about 0.3" which is nice to see the landscape white again. According to CoCoRaHs it looks like those showers that were trained over Anacortes most of the night gave them another 1-3".

[MossMan]

Well all I got was a dusting or the lightest gray shade on the Euro...But that’s okay since we ended up with snow earlier in the week. Currently 30.9 degrees.

[Blizzard777]

31* icy

I’m assuming the same that Pdx got if this band holds together 

 

band is eroding away ...sadly 

31*

27* dp

[Blizzard777]

Chehailis is enjoying 

 

live YouTube down there https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfGaUembwA8

 

[MossMan]

Well since Phil just cancelled next winter I hope everyone enjoys the last of the snow currently.

[OysterPrintout]

Well since Phil just cancelled next winter I hope everyone enjoys the last of the snow currently.

If I close my eyes and try real hard I can remember the 24 minutes of mixed precip flurries we've had like it was yesterday.

[High Desert Mat?]

Bend is getting dumped on. It’s been snowing since 4am. The roads are as bad as I’ve seen all winter. Huge flakes and holding at 23 degrees now.

[North_County]

Bluebird day!

 

Still only 15F when I left the house this morning, but the absence of the wind made it feel much much warmer than the past week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow seems to get put back on the trees every night... here is the view this morning.

 

 

Been that way here too. 

[Prairiedog]

Made it down to 33f (on two of my three stations) but precip never really changed over.  Had just enough ice in the rain to leave a little slush on the car windshield.  Tough micro climate where I'm at.  Some fog has settled in.  Definitely elevation driven on this one and spotty. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My road and Silver Falls Hwy were completely snow covered this morning. Absolutely no other cars on the road though.

 

[MossMan]

So is this it? Anything tonight/tomorrow morning?

[Timmy Supercell]

County Schools apparently still running. Only because this snow occurred over the last week, where as my storm in 2017 happened too quickly for plows. (It's rare, schools can close in K-Falls)

 

Snow still coming down! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

County Schools apparently still running. Only because this snow occurred over the last week, where as my storm in 2017 happened too quickly for plows. (It's rare, schools can close in K-Falls)

 

Snow still coming down! 

 

My wife went to school in K-Falls through 8th grade. She says they only closed school twice during that time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have noticed the ensembles and operational GFS are trending wetter. Probably good news for our snow pack. 

[GHweatherChris]

It's flurrying!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mt Hood snow pack now u to 95% of normal. Good to see the healthiest snow pack in the state is in the parched SE part of the state. 

[Omegaraptor]

I have noticed the ensembles and operational GFS are trending wetter. Probably good news for our snow pack.

 

12z GFS is considerably less splitty and points the jet straight into our region until Day 10. Euro was never very splitty.

 

Personally I’m a little concerned about the warm fronts that could make this precip fall as rain in the mountains as well.

[Jesse]

Looks like much of the Portland area saw snow falling this morning.

 

It fell to 8F here by midnight with early clearing. Then snowed heavily during the late night and early morning hours. Another 3-4 inches. Up to 17 now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is considerably less splitty and points the jet straight into our region until Day 10. Euro was never very splitty.

 

Personally I’m a little concerned about the warm fronts that could make this precip fall as rain in the mountains as well.

 

Does not look like a lot of mountain rain with these systems. The systems are not cold by any means, but look like 3500-4000' snow levels mostly. 

[GHweatherChris]

More than a flurry now!

[Omegaraptor]

Weather outlook after today is about as boring as it gets. 50/42 and drizzle every single day pretty much.

[TT-SEA]

Weather outlook after today is about as boring as it gets. 50/42 and drizzle every single day pretty much.

That is not what the models show.

 

The 12Z GFS... for example... shows distinct systems and fronts and dry periods in between and some longer dry periods later in the run.

 

This does not look like a perpetual warm front pattern that you are describing with that forecast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is not what the models show.

 

The 12Z GFS... for example... shows distinct systems and fronts and dry periods in between and some longer dry periods later in the run.

 

This does not look like a perpetual warm front pattern that you are describing with that forecast.

Lots of mountain snow. Far from a Boring pattern.

[bainbridgekid]

Bainbridge Island Schools were completely closed today. Interesting since they didn't actually really see any new snow, but apparently the roads were very icy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Only made it down to 33F and a bit of rain overnight. Up to 40F now so the streak without a sub-40 high lives on.  The only one we have had was way back on Nov 30. If we don't have another it will be the fewest since 1933-34 which is the only year on record where there were zero sub-40 highs.  Every other cold season has had at least 2.  If we don't have another, it would likely cement this cold season as a solid F for the south valley.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is not what the models show.

 

The 12Z GFS... for example... shows distinct systems and fronts and dry periods in between and some longer dry periods later in the run.

 

This does not look like a perpetual warm front pattern that you are describing with that forecast.

Does look boring in Bakersfield. 

[Omegaraptor]

Only made it down to 33F and a bit of rain overnight. Up to 40F now so the streak without a sub-40 high lives on.  The only one we have had was way back on Nov 30. If we don't have another it will be the fewest since 1933-34 which is the only year on record where there were zero sub-40 highs.  Every other cold season has had at least 2.  If we don't have another, it would likely cement this cold season as a solid F for the south valley.

Could be worse. Up in Failland we haven’t even had one.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

So is this it? Anything tonight/tomorrow morning?

 

NWS is saying another inch or two in Bellingham tonight, then the slushfest begins.

[Timmy]

NWS is saying another inch or two in Bellingham tonight, then the slushfest begins.

must be rough

[GHweatherChris]

Bainbridge Island Schools were completely closed today. Interesting since they didn't actually really see any new snow, but apparently the roads were very icy.

Some local schools closed today due to just ice, today is the only day of the week our daughters school closed, but did have 2 late start days.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snowing the Puyallup valley. Also got a dusting last night so miracles happen

[MossMan]

Some local schools closed today due to just ice, today is the only day of the week our daughters school closed, but did have 2 late start days.

That was the reason Stanwood was 2hrs late this morning. Between the dusting last night and the melting slush from yesterday it was amazingly slick this morning, much more so than the snow covered roads previous to yesterday.

[GHweatherChris]

Moderate snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Chris looks to be in a good spot right now. Steady stream of showers.