Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[MossMan]

[snow_wizard]

Similar to what the gfs originally spit out for the mid Jan event?

 

Surprised to see that -3 at K-Falls yesterday tied a record from 1917. I would have thought their daily record would be a bit colder than that.

 

Pretty weird situation for them to get a record that far south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36F with a DP of 34F isn't gonna get it done.

 

It actually shows rain for Eugene, but the precip is focused between Albany and Wilsonville, where it shoes it falling as snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty weird situation for them to get a record that far south.

 

I think it was just a combo of deep snow cover, clear skies, and a moderately cold airmass. 

[TT-SEA]

Which is exactly what my original post noted yesterday.

 

 

The Snoqualmie is a flood prone river too... it does not even show a blip upwards through Tuesday.

 

In fact...its forecasted to drop a little.

 

[TT-SEA]

Randy... your c-zone snowstorm is pretty close per the radar!   Prime time is supposed to be coming soon.   Needs to shift a little south.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The Snoqualmie is a flood prone river too... it does not even show a blip upwards through Tuesday.

 

In fact...its forecasted to drop a little.

 

 

Okay.  You win.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days.

[snow_wizard]

Similar to what the gfs originally spit out for the mid Jan event?

 

The thing that was striking about the ECMWF weeklies today was how much better they looked than the last run.  At least right now the model is seeing something promising.  Hopefully this will continue to show up.  As I've always pointed out cold Februaries come in bunches.  4 in a row would be pushing it though.

[TT-SEA]

While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days.

I totally agree the cold signal is there. Might know more in 2 weeks!

[Deweydog]

Didn’t the weeklies before last show persistent cold with the REAL real deal showing up in early February?

 

Also... lost in the midst of all these February preparations is the fact PDX is down the 36.

[snow_wizard]

While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days.

 

If it was just the control I would be suspicious, but the mean is pretty nice at the same time.  A strong signal for being that far out.  BTW the nice trough from the control that was posted on here is only one of there of four major cold shots shown by that model.

[snow_wizard]

Didn’t the weeklies before last show persistent cold with the REAL real deal showing up in early February?

 

Also... lost in the midst of all these February preparations is the fact PDX is down the 36.

 

No.  It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.

[TT-SEA]

No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.

Maybe it was 2 weeks ago... but recently it showed persistent cold for 6 weeks.

[Deweydog]

No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.

I could have sworn just a couple weeks ago they were jaw-droppingly cold heading into early February...

 

February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The thing that was striking about the ECMWF weeklies today was how much better they looked than the last run.  At least right now the model is seeing something promising.  Hopefully this will continue to show up.  As I've always pointed out cold Februaries come in bunches.  4 in a row would be pushing it though.

 

One could argue February 2017 was not that great regionally. It had the early month event at SEA and got chilly late in the month, but for W. Oregon it was barely below average. More notable for being extremely wet than anything else. 

[Christensen87]

CFS shows cold arriving February 10. 3 more weeks y’all!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

While Tim and I do not see eye to eye on the exciting new EURO weeklies, I do agree with him that flooding is not a major threat in the next 7 days.

 

I don't think it's a huge threat--but between now and Saturday night, there may be issues.  That's all I said.  It was poo-pooed as a non-issue, so I linked the NWS headline--which discussed the possibility.

 

He's very intelligent and he knows is stuff--but there are people who have knowledge to share--and their comments should not be summarily dismissed which is why I posted the headline.  Back to my regularly scheduled programming...

[MossMan]

Randy... your c-zone snowstorm is pretty close per the radar! Prime time is supposed to be coming soon. Needs to shift a little south.

Just a light snow at the moment. 31.8 degrees. C’MON!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a light snow at the moment. 31.8 degrees. C’MON!

 

OK ROB.

[MossMan]

I had .56” of snow melt today!

[MossMan]

OK ROB.

Someone has to say it in his absence!

[Deweydog]

#pray4rob

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS shows cold arriving February 10. 3 more weeks y’all!

 

You were not kidding. SCORE!

[TT-SEA]

I don't think it's a huge threat--but between now and Saturday night, there may be issues.  That's all I said.  It was poo-pooed as a non-issue, so I linked the NWS headline--which discussed the possibility.

 

He's very intelligent and he knows is stuff--but there are people who have knowledge to share--and their comments should not be summarily dismissed which is why I posted the headline.  Back to my regularly scheduled programming...

 

Its just that a blanket statement that flooding will be a concern is sort of misleading... sounds like we are going into a very wet pattern with river flooding which does happen fairly often when we come out of a cold and snowy pattern.    This is quite different.

[Requiem]

Its just that a blanket statement that flooding will be a concern is sort of misleading... sounds like we are going into a very wet pattern with river flooding which does happen fairly often when we come out of a cold and snowy pattern.    This is quite different.

 

I mean...the NWS did highlight the possibility-- I think he was just trying to address that discussion. Probably not going to be much.

[TT-SEA]

I mean...the NWS did highlight the possibility-- I think he was just trying to address that discussion. Probably not going to be much.

That is the most flood prone river in WA... and this short precip event is focused right on its basin. I think its worth mentioning there is absolutely no threat for the vast majority of rivers in WA for the foreseeable future. Not even a rise in river levels.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

The Tolt?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Skokomish.

[FroYoBro]

The Tolt?

 

69 posts.

 

Nice.

[MossMan]

The Tolt?

The SkokoDomeBuster River.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Its just that a blanket statement that flooding will be a concern is sort of misleading... sounds like we are going into a very wet pattern with river flooding which does happen fairly often when we come out of a cold and snowy pattern.    This is quite different.

Think some areas will need to be concerned about flooding on Friday into Saturday. Very significant rise in snow levels. May even rain at Snoqualmie unless that east wind keeps it cold enough.

 

My original post is above.  Not sure how you thought it was a blanket statement.  You make it sound like I thought everyone was going to flood--which, as  evidenced by the foregoing, was never said.  

 

Again, you win.  Congrats!!!!

[Weather1011]

More snow tonight

[Requiem]

Think some areas will need to be concerned about flooding on Friday into Saturday. Very significant rise in snow levels. May even rain at Snoqualmie unless that east wind keeps it cold enough.

 

My original post is above.  Not sure how you thought it was a blanket statement.  You make it sound like I thought everyone was going to flood--which, as  evidenced by the foregoing, was never said.  

 

Again, you win.  Congrats!!!!

 

And the NWS mentioned it in their hydrology section. This is just silly-- no one said widespread flooding and it's worth noting what the NWS says even if it just won't happen (according to some).

[Deweydog]

You know, if there had actually been an NWS contact he might have come out of this whole thing looking pretty smart.

[Weather1011]

No. It had been advertising a pretty blah pattern from just after now onward.

Winter is over for you guys

[MossMan]

That blob of moisture is 5-10miles too far north. I’m screwed, it’s getting wasted on the heat flats of Skagit.

[TT-SEA]

Think some areas will need to be concerned about flooding on Friday into Saturday. Very significant rise in snow levels. May even rain at Snoqualmie unless that east wind keeps it cold enough.

 

My original post is above. Not sure how you thought it was a blanket statement. You make it sound like I thought everyone was going to flood--which, as evidenced by the foregoing, was never said.

 

Again, you win. Congrats!!!!

It rains all the time at Snoqualmie in the winter without river flooding. By time the snow levels rise on Sunday... its basically dry.

 

My point is that saying flooding is going to become a concern is a little misleading. Its very localized in one area based on one short event. And that river floods floods every time someone sneezes. The NWS has to highlight it... it's in their coverage area. But flooding is not a concern at all for the vast majority of the region.

[MikeInEverett]

Wow there is some major black ice forming out there tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

Its Snowing! At least for a bit, hit and miss kinda night, but this could work out towards morning with a big enough cell, usually does in this type of setup!!