Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Perturbed Member]

33F. I'm ready for the next round of brief 20 minute snow in the AM. 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ECMWF still paints a stripe of snow over this area late tonight.  It would be nice to end this on a positive note.  One thing very much on the plus side is the timing couldn't be better for time of day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really good news on the ECMWF weeklies!  We have an outstandingly strong signal for GOA ridge again by Feb 10 or so.  The control model goes epic while the mean has  a very robust signal for so far out.

 

Good to hear. I hope we can pull off another February miracle. It would be nice to see the Willamette Valley and PDX score a nice event. Hopefully after the coming Sunday/Monday torch we can cool things off a bit at the surface. Would be nice to see SLE at least keep their average high this month below 50 (They are well under it as of now.). 

 

Up here we have done pretty well. Only got up to 36 today, and we have had a good stretch of below average weather up here. Much better than the valley. These cool airmasses with strong onshore flow tend to not put up very impressive cold anomalies in the valley, but above 1000' the anomaly is a lot closer to the 850mb anomaly. 

[MossMan]

Some places will probably see there coldest lows tonight during this entire cold snap. Down to 27 here.

My lowest low was 20.2.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Daily fuzz could be worse. Bet it trends down in the next week.

[MossMan]

[seattleweatherguy]

Really good news on the ECMWF weeklies! We have an outstandingly strong signal for GOA ridge again by Feb 10 or so. The control model goes epic while the mean has a very robust signal for so far out.

Similar to what the gfs originally spit out for the mid Jan event?

[Deweydog]

***FEBRUARY ALERT***

[TT-SEA]

***FEBRUARY ALERT***

It's a lock. There is literally nothing that can go wrong.

[MossMan]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's a lock. There is literally nothing that can go wrong.

I find it amazing the gfs latched onto the pattern so far out and then when it was 90 hrs out I started pooping on us. Would of been interesting to see how the old gfs would of done.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2/14

I fly out the 13th. I feel me and you will be sweating bullets watching the long range.

[TT-SEA]

I find it amazing the gfs latched onto the pattern so far out and then when it was 90 hrs out I started pooping on us. Would of been interesting to see how the old gfs would of done.

ECMWF weeklies look quite different than the last ECMWF weeklies... not sure how much models can really predict beyond 2 weeks. And even 2 weeks is just a general signal at best.

[El_Nina]

It's a lock. There is literally nothing that can go wrong.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://nypost.com/2020/01/16/massive-asteroid-could-be-dangerous-to-life-on-earth-if-it-breaks-up/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwj9z_D704nnAhU8JzQIHYlYBRQQ0PADegQIBBAT&usg=AOvVaw1m7GvBVEeh9coI2G6QhqMA

[TT-SEA]

There is definitely a fairly strong retrogression signal around the 2nd week of February with a trough hanging out in the West thereafter, FWIW.

 

Good way to present it quickly.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had 6.00" of snow today, started 3am and ending at 5pm. There is now a depth of 13", my 2nd highest depth I've measured in this area next to Jan 2017. Drifts are higher, some around 16-18". 

 

Since Jan 9th 18.5" fell. If the rest of January continues at this pace I would either match or surpass 2017! I'm currently at 31.75" for the season, very close to the average as of today. 

 

Here's multiple images I uploaded to imgur.

https://imgur.com/a/Dzpx3ZP

[MossMan]

I fly out the 13th. I feel me and you will be sweating bullets watching the long range.

I fly out on the 16th! This arctic blast needs to plow through by the 2nd with a reload on the 8th. Then the thaw can commence by the 13th!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is interesting to hear about Februaries weeklies and see 1995 as a pattern analog for the 8-14 day period. Late January and early February 1995 was very torchy and spring like, only to be interrupted by a brief but intense arctic blast February 12-14th. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Some places will probably see there coldest lows tonight during this entire cold snap. Down to 27 here.

22 and falling like a rock here. So far the coldest I've been during this event is 14˚F aka -10˚C. Some guy on the BC forum who is sort of a joker was predicting temps around -10˚C tonight if it cleared off; he may just end up being right!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I find it amazing the gfs latched onto the pattern so far out and then when it was 90 hrs out I started pooping on us. Would of been interesting to see how the old gfs would of done.

 

Given how goofy the ensembles which are based on the old GFS got, I would think it would have fared poorly too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had 6.00" of snow today, started 3am and ending at 5pm. There is now a depth of 13", my 2nd highest depth I've measured in this area next to Jan 2017. Drifts are higher, some around 16-18". 

 

Since Jan 9th 18.5" fell. If the rest of January continues at this pace I would either match or surpass 2017! I'm currently at 31.75" for the season, very close to the average as of today. 

 

Here's multiple images I uploaded to imgur.

https://imgur.com/a/Dzpx3ZP

 

Very nice! That splitty trough the middle of next week may give you a couple inches. 

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to finally have something fun to track. 

[Weiner Warrior]

This does look pretty nice.

 

Only 744 hours away! LOCK IT IN.

 

I can't wait to watch the models every night that show 55" of snow in 10 hrs only to get .8" that's my favorite feeling ever!!

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice to finally have something fun to track.

We just have to wait a week for the next run. It will go by so quickly. Take a short nap and it will be here.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

No.

 

Flooding is not even close to being a concern.  

 

And there is still lowland snow on Saturday morning.

Flooding may be a concern.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=hydrologic%20outlook

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Since last Sunday evening, I received 8.5 inches of snow in Poulsbo (For those persons who live around here, I live on the hill, directly behind Poulsbo Junior High).  Worked out pretty good for those persons north of Silverdale--that is, if they like lots of snow.  That was a solid week.  Looking forward to next month!

[Blizzard777]

shower
50% rain

50% snow 

36.4*

before and after as well!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprised to see that -3 at K-Falls yesterday tied a record from 1917. I would have thought their daily record would be a bit colder than that.

[Deweydog]

Can someone plz post the Kuchera maps for the weeklies?

[TT-SEA]

Flooding may be a concern.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=hydrologic%20outlook

 

I guess the Olympics could get some heavy rain... but the snow level is going to be quite low and that is a river that floods easy.    Its not even thought for rivers off the Cascades.    Most of that precip with be snow and the precip amounts are not that great.   We had WAY more in mid December and earlier this month. 

 

About 1 inch of precip in the Cascades in that time frame... and all snow above 2,000 feet.     That is not a flooding situation.

 

[MossMan]

Flooding may be a concern.

 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=hydrologic%20outlook

The Skokomish floods every time a squirrel pees in it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We just have to wait a week for the next run. It will go by so quickly. Take a short nap and it will be here.

 

Sounds good. I'll be heading out to Oklahoma and Colorado for a week then, so I am not too heartbroken the last week of the month is not looking particularly exciting. 

[TT-SEA]

Sounds good. I'll be heading out to Oklahoma and Colorado for a week then, so I am not too heartbroken the last week of the month is not looking particularly exciting.

The next month might not be too exciting.

 

But it's impossible to much of anything beyond 2 weeks... could change.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I guess the Olympics could get some heavy rain... but the snow level is going to be quite low and that is a river that floods easy.    Its not even thought for rivers off the Cascades.    Most of that precip with be snow and the precip amounts are not that great.   We had WAY more in mid December and earlier this month. 

 

About 1 inch of precip in the Cascades in that time frame... and all snow above 2,000 feet.     That is not a flooding situation.

 

I don't disagree with any of that.  I just noted that flooding can be a concern as we warm up with heavy rain--even in the lowlands if there's enough.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some more flooding headlines in the next 48 hours.

[TT-SEA]

I don't disagree with any of that. I just noted that flooding can be a concern as we warm up with heavy rain--even in the lowlands if there's enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more flooding headlines in the next 48 hours.

The only meaningful precip over the next few days is tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS shows a little snow in the WV by 4am. Doesn't last long, but interesting.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00z GFS shows a little snow in the WV by 4am. Doesn't last long, but interesting.

 

36F with a DP of 34F isn't gonna get it done.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next month might not be too exciting.

 

But it's impossible to much of anything beyond 2 weeks... could change.

 

February is our month now.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The only meaningful precip over the next few days is tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

 

Which is exactly what my original post noted yesterday.