SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 It is becoming comical what a dud this winter is. Oh well. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 12Z EPS 10-15 day mean... But right at day 15... the cold signal becomes stronger to our east. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 As Fred pointed out... looks like its going to be epic cold soon. Ignore my posts about the ECMWF, EPS, GFS, and GFS ensemble mean. Those are not meaningful models and I am struggling to find a single map that does not show epic cold and snow. But I am posting the only troll maps I can find. Like the GFS and ECMWF snowfall maps for the one period that lowland snow is possible. The people over-hyping cold have a much better handle on the situation. I am just messing with everyone as usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 It is becoming comical what a dud this winter is. Oh well. 1980-81. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah. Unfortunately hints the next couple weeks could have a major cooling trend were greatly exaggerated. Phil says wait until Mid-month. Most of us say wait until next winter.Waiting until next winter is the most realistic option now. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 It is becoming comical what a dud this winter is. Oh well.But low solar!!! Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The real story is that the Friday/Saturday period has some potential for serious warmth. Thinking some 60s from SEA south and definitely some 50+ lows as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I love how analysis has to always be one-sided or the forum moderator jumps all over you. So I am only supposed to post the EPS maps that show retrogression like I did the last 2 days... but not post the run this morning because it does not feed the fantasy as much? Really stupid. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The real story is that the Friday/Saturday period has some potential for serious warmth. Thinking some 60s from SEA south and definitely some 50+ lows as well. Yeah. I was thinking that the AR getting aimed so far north could give a little time for some inversiony east winds to develop and save the Portland area from anything too crazy. But there is potential for it to get ridiculous elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah. I was thinking that the AR getting aimed so far north could give a little time for some inversiony east winds to develop and save the Portland area from anything too crazy. But there is potential for it to get ridiculous elsewhere. Don't see much of a mechanism for SE winds to persist with this go around. The southerlies should break through sometime on Thursday or Friday and be really warm once they do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Don't see much of a mechanism for SE winds to persist with this go around. The southerlies should break through sometime on Thursday or Friday and be really warm once they do. Not that warm... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Not that warm... That is near record warmth PDX-south. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Not that warm... Uh, yeah, try adding about 5 degrees to that. 60 degrees in Seattle and 65 in Eugene is record territory for this time of year. Toss in some extra warm lows and you're talking a probable +15 departure day at least on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Uh, yeah, try adding about 5 degrees to that. 60 degrees in Seattle and 65 in Eugene is record territory for this time of year. Toss in some extra warm lows and you're talking a probable +15 departure day at least on Friday. Troll. Going to be much colder. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Uh, yeah, try adding about 5 degrees to that. 60 degrees in Seattle and 65 in Eugene is record territory for this time of year. Toss in some extra warm lows and you're talking a probable +15 departure day at least on Friday.Yeah. That map shows some serious warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Troll. Going to be much colder. Sure, Tim. Looks promising for some chilly temps that day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Yeah. That map shows some serious warmth. The 108 hour weather maps are also renowned for their warm bias. Particularly in warm sector scenarios with screaming baroclinic bands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The 108 hour weather maps are also renowned for their warm bias. Particularly in warm sector scenarios with screaming baroclinic bands.Late January’s answer to 10/21/03? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Sure, Tim. Looks promising for some chilly temps that day. Take it up with Fred. I mentioned that the GEM trended warmer for next week and sometimes that is an indication of how the other models will trend.... and then the ECMWF followed suit. But I was just trolling and feeling invincible. Friday will be quite chilly. That is my official prediction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Late January’s answer to 10/21/03? Sans the goodies a week later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 1980-81. The silver lining is it is probably not possible for next winter to be worse. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Take it up with Fred. I mentioned that the GEM trended warmer for next week and sometimes that is an indication of how the other models will trend.... and then the ECMWF followed suit. But I was just trolling and feeling invincible. Your issue as always is more with your delivery method than with the potential validity of what you're saying. Your manic and obnoxiously repetitive posting style effectively negates the accuracy of what you're saying. You're sort of like the anti-salesman. That and the fact that we're currently talking about two different things, since Friday's baroclinic shitshow is now well established and technically has no bearing on the plateful of crap that we're likely to be served later on. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The silver lining is it is probably not possible for next winter to be worse. The climate called and just asked you to hold its beer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 As Fred pointed out... looks like its going to be epic cold soon. Ignore my posts about the ECMWF, EPS, GFS, and GFS ensemble mean. Those are not meaningful models and I am struggling to find a single map that does not show epic cold and snow. But I am posting the only troll maps I can find. Like the GFS and ECMWF snowfall maps for the one period that lowland snow is possible. The people over-hyping cold have a much better handle on the situation. I am just messing with everyone as usual. Yay! Can’t wait, thanks Tim!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The silver lining is it is probably not possible for next winter to be worse. Yeah it's impossible to get -1 inch at PDX 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Your issue as always is more with your delivery method than with the potential validity of what you're saying. Your manic and obnoxiously repetitive posting style basically negates the accuracy part behind what you're saying. You're sort of like the anti-salesman. That and the fact that we're currently talking about two different things, since Friday's baroclinic shitshow technically has no bearing on the plateful of crap that we're likely to be served later on. I have been posting as objectively as I can and have scaled back the number of posts... and made numerous posts about the potential for snow on Sunday and long range retrogression. We have been through all this crap before. I listened... and I am taking a different approach. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Some weather is approaching!! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 It is if you remember the Euro's surface temp cold bias and add the +3 degrees you mentioned during the last event. Or does that bias only occur when it's showing cold temperatures?! Good Lord. I did not even post that map when I saw it and made no mention of the warmth those days. I just posted it because Justin was talking about it. The rest of what I said is a sarcastic response to Fred. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The climate called and just asked you to hold its beer. After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close.Personally I think it’s far worse down here than 2014-2015. That winter had a decent strong East wind/cold snap at PDX in November, and several great windstorms. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 So glad I live where I do! (Except for 2016/17) Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Good Lord... Touchy today, are we? It was just a clarification question. I wanted to make sure I had the Euro's well-documented biases correct and how they apply in certain scenarios. Figured I would go straight to the source.Whatever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I liked the wind and rain events that continuously battered the PNW in '14-'15. I haven't had a >65 gust since that season, not counting t'storm winds. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Personally I think it’s far worse down here than 2014-2015. That winter had a decent strong East wind/cold snap at PDX in November, and several great windstorms. I am starting to lean that way. November 2014 was a big event. I do not care about wind evens, but the November event was better than the November chilly snap this year, and the cool episode around New Year's was cooler than anything we have had in December/January this year. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Given the last couple Februaries though I will refrain from sticking a fork in winter just yet. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Two strange takeaways from this morning. The EPS isn’t consistent and Jim is gone! Our inevitable arctic blast must be in jeopardy?!?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 The word to describe this winter in the western Portland metro is most certainly “boring”. No windstorms, no heavy rain, no cold, no snow besides a tiny amount of snow on 11/30 that didn’t stick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 I have been posting as objectively as I can and have scaled back the number of posts... and made numerous posts about the potential for snow on Sunday and long range retrogression. We have been through all this crap before. I listened... and I am taking a different approach. Hmm... interesting. I do desire a little more clarification on whether or not the weather has been quite whet lately before I inform my opinion there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 From a regional perspective we should use another winter as an anal-log. Maybe 2002-2003? One of the winters that didn't snow at PDX but was decent for the mountains. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2020 Report Share Posted January 27, 2020 Two strange takeaways from this morning. The EPS isn’t consistent and Jim is gone! Our inevitable arctic blast must be in jeopardy?!?!And Matt has completely disappeared...Perhaps he was DomeBuster Josh all along... 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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