Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hey at least we have not been getting the dry backdoor events recently. My total for the cold snap 13.8 inches. Coldest high was 29 coldest low 24.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 at SEA now.

Almost 50 at Olympia... but it's raining there.

Just 37 here with fog and drizzle. The worst shitt there is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This will probably go down as one of, if not the warmest winter nationally this Century.

[TT-SEA]

Just 37 here with fog and drizzle. The worst shitt there is.

40 here now... totally dry all day with a bright sky and peaks of sun. This is a pleasant way to warm up.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Bellingham will reach 50 today as well.  

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RG6wkJHIokw

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hahahaha!!

[Deweydog]

PDX is not warm today.

 

-Tim

[Jesse]

This will probably go down as one of, if not the warmest winter nationally this Century.

Epstein was killed by a warm winter.

[Shawn]

41 at my location in S. Scappoose

48 in Hillsboro

47 in Salmon Creek to my east

Its coming been slowly moderating today. Usually get a quick gust of warm wind and temps when this happens, but there not much of a spread this time.

[MossMan]

Have we ever had a blast in January and another separate one in February that was just as good or better? I cannot recall one in my lifetime.

[TT-SEA]

Have we ever had a blast in January and another separate one in February that was just as good or better? I cannot recall one in my lifetime.

Really low chance of it happening.

 

Odds of an arctic blast in February would be better if this one had completely failed for the entire region. But this was the real deal... just did not have enough push.

[Deweydog]

Have we ever had a blast in January and another separate one in February that was just as good or better? I cannot recall one in my lifetime.

Most of us will end January solidly warm, possibly exceptionally warm. That always helps!

 

You’re f*cked though...

[Blizzard777]

I simply cannot believe you only got 0.5" out of that pattern.  I thought my just shy of 3" was bad.  This was a worst case outcome for the area between Seattle and Olympia given the pattern.

My location just lacked the ability to get any meaningful precipitation during this event   .

Last year sure proved that the right pattern does deliver the goods down here so let number 6 blocking event commence and we shall give it another go! 

last year was sweeeeet! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

February

 

And it will be between the 4th and the 12th, because I will be in New Mexico then. Just watch.

[kokaneekidz]

That area is a total snow zone. I watched it from afar before I moved to Whatcom County: the Lake Samish Park & Ride highway cam is one of the lowland locations that always seems to score. It’s enough to make me seriously think about moving to that area someday, even though I do like to be in town.

Somehow that lake padden area is golden too.

[BLI snowman]

This will probably go down as one of, if not the warmest winter nationally this Century.

That would also mean the warmest winter on record, since 2015-16 is the current title holder.

 

I think this one will be close to 2011-12 temperature wise. So top 5 warmest.

[snow_wizard]

Hey at least we have not been getting the dry backdoor events recently. My total for the cold snap 13.8 inches. Coldest high was 29 coldest low 24.

 

I can understand why Andrew is a bit sore.  The last two winters have been pretty WA centric.

[BLI snowman]

Really low chance of it happening.

 

Odds of an arctic blast in February would be better if this one had completely failed for the entire region. But this was the real deal... just did not have enough push.

Yeah, I would feel better about our chances if this one had just slid east and we were now relying on a retrograde with the AK vortex having been totally upended. Instead that sucker only briefly nudged towards BC/AB and then promptly rebuilt itself.

 

Our best bet for seeing something the rest of the way will be with cool onshore flow IMO. Which ironically could still work out way better than this event did for some of us.

[snow_wizard]

Have we ever had a blast in January and another separate one in February that was just as good or better? I cannot recall one in my lifetime.

 

Keep in mind most of us didn't have a blast with this.  One of the main reasons I think we'll get hit again is because we have had several episodes of 150 blocking this season.  These things often repeat in a given season.  It's pretty easy to forget there was a 150 block in late December, because most of the dynamics ended up way south.  Every 150 block episode has been different this season.

 

To answer your question it has happened, but not in a while.

[Jesse]

I can understand why Andrew is a bit sore.  The last two winters have been pretty WA centric.

Yeah you really gotta feel for the guy sometimes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we are going to have plenty of days in the 50s over the next couple of weeks. 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensembles have already been gravitating lower for week two.  A number of sub -5 members showing up now.

[BLI snowman]

At least it looks like a solidly wet January down here as of right now.

 

It's actually rained here every day this decade (LOL!!!) and it's been insanely consistent with about twelve days in that stretch with between 0.25" to .40" of precip. My monthly total is up to 6" now.

 

Tomorrow may be the only dry day of the month here.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah you really gotta feel for the guy sometimes.

 

He probably got more snow than I did, and I was way closer to the cold air.  It's early enough that I can live with it for now.

[TT-SEA]

Keep in mind most of us didn't have a blast with this. One of the main reasons I think we'll get hit again is because we have had several episodes of 150 blocking this season. These things often repeat in a given season. It's pretty easy to forget there was a 150 block in late December, because most of the dynamics ended up way south. Every 150 block episode has been different this season.

 

To answer your question it has happened, but not in a while.

Or we could get another 150 block and its weaker than this past one and less effective. Any arctic blast would have to go through Bellingham and they just had one.

 

Long way to go.

[Jesse]

At least it looks like a solidly wet January down here as of right now.

 

It's actually rained here every day this decade (LOL!!!) and it's been insanely consistent with about twelve days in that stretch with between 0.25" to .40" of precip. My monthly total is up to 6" now.

 

Tomorrow may be the only dry day of the month here.

Yeah, I was just gonna mention that I am impressed with how much wetter the models have trended for the next week or so.

 

Beats dryish split flow crap. The mountains should continue to benefit as well. A couple warmer systems the next 7-10 days notwithstanding.

[Deweydog]

March

[TT-SEA]

He probably got more snow than I did, and I was way closer to the cold air. It's early enough that I can live with it for now.

So what happens if the best of 2019-20 is behind us now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Or we could get another 150 block and its weaker than this past one and less effective. Any arctic blast would have to go through Bellingham and they just had one.

 

Long way to go.

 

There have been plenty of years with multiple arctic intrusions. And it wouldn't have to necessarily be a Fraser River blast. Both the 2013-14 arctic blasts were pretty underwhelming north of Seattle, but put up very impressive cold numbers in Oregon.

[TT-SEA]

There have been plenty of years with multiple arctic intrusions. And it wouldn't have to necessarily be a Fraser River blast. Both the 2013-14 arctic blasts were pretty underwhelming north of Seattle, but put up very impressive cold numbers in Oregon.

Fair point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So what happens if the best of 2019-20 is behind us now?

 

We continue on with our lives? I guess having called for a mild winter, I do not have as much invested in this as others. Plus I have a lot of yard work I want to get on.

[MossMan]

And I forget that we flirted with snow and cold for pretty much all of 2016/17. Just not much snow up here to show for it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can understand why Andrew is a bit sore.  The last two winters have been pretty WA centric.

absolutely and especially for his elevation. Seriously what happened to the days of tons of cold onshore flow in the winter? Just like his place I can do well here with that pattern. 2007 comes to mind. He has been really missing out.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I was just gonna mention that I am impressed with how much wetter the models have trended for the next week or so.

 

Beats dryish split flow crap. The mountains should continue to benefit as well. A couple warmer systems the next 7-10 days notwithstanding.

 

That's the upside to the blocking completely taking a low solar induced dump this winter. Our snowpack will be healthy for awhile, which separates this year from the 76-77s of the world. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least it looks like a solidly wet January down here as of right now.

 

It's actually rained here every day this decade (LOL!!!) and it's been insanely consistent with about twelve days in that stretch with between 0.25" to .40" of precip. My monthly total is up to 6" now.

 

Tomorrow may be the only dry day of the month here.

 

Yeah, it is nice to finally have wet month. And even though the rest of the month looks pretty mild we will see more rain at times. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

absolutely and especially for his elevation. Seriously what happened to the days of tons of cold onshore flow in the winter? Just like his place I can do well here with that pattern. 2007 comes to mind. He has been really missing out.

 

Last February had a ton of cold onshore flow here. Can't really complain about that one. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Last February had a ton of cold onshore flow here. Can't really complain about that one.

 

It seems to becoming rare though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It seems to becoming rare though.

 

Yeah, we had a ton the first winter I was here in 2011-12, but has been pretty hard to come by since then. 

[TT-SEA]

It seems to becoming rare though.

 

 

Or it goes in cycles.