Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Who?

What? Where?

[El_Nina]

What? Where?

When? Why?

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty small compared to the last one we were tracking.

At what point does a ridge become a block?

[Cloud]

So the GFS ensemble hinted at another chilly pattern in la la land. Worth noting it improved from the 18z. We’ll see where this goes.

[Deweydog]

At what point does a ridge become a block?

When it begins to significantly impede the jet stream’s ability to get laid.

[El_Nina]

When it begins to significantly impede the jet stream’s ability to get laid.

Our summers must be pretty blocky

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is onto something.  Classic pre Arctic outbreak look.  Once again this is backed up by the mean.

 

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Our summers must be pretty blocky

 

In the summer the heights are much higher and force the jet way north.  A totally different situation.

[ShawniganLake]

The EPS is onto something. Classic pre Arctic outbreak look. Once again this is backed up by the mean.

What does the mean look like?

[Jesse]

Looks like the low level cold hung on at PDX today. Score.

[kokaneekidz]

Everyone including Fred knows it’s DomeBusterMtScottJosh...Not sure why he continues the Charade.

 

He may or may not be... A crafty lawyer on r and r

[Meatyorologist]

The EPS is onto something.  Classic pre Arctic outbreak look.  Once again this is backed up by the mean.

Always 240+ hours out   

[El_Nina]

Always 240+ hours out   

Seems like this time we even had a lot of good stuff within the 7-10 day range disappear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez. What a mild rest of the month on the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

Its dry this morning and I can see it's fairly clear to the east.

47 at SEA and 46 in North Bend already... it was quite a warm night.    Hard to pull that off without strong southerly winds and rain at this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

What does the mean look like?

 

 

EPS mean at day 15:

 

[BLI snowman]

Had 0.03" of light mist this morning to keep my measurable rainfall streak alive. Up to 20 days now with it possibly extending through the foreseeable future.

[BLI snowman]

Geez. What a mild rest of the month on the GFS. 

 

No question this month is going to be a total torchfest from Seattle south.

[Timmy Supercell]

Frozen frog this nice morning. 

[Prairiedog]

La Pine isn’t Josh. My brother is home wishing he could post again. I don’t vouch for some of the things he has done but when he’s sober he’s a pretty good guy. Just leave La Lurker alone and let josh back one more time. He will behave and if not you can ban us both.

So lets cancel his bail so he can go rob another bank.  Great idea. 

[Blizzard777]

Gfs shows us under rain starting January 23 and ending January 28th

vould be a bit VET! 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Gfs shows us under rain starting January 23 and ending January 28th

vould be a bit VET! 

 

Going off my usual snow/water equivalent probably another 8-10" solid to end January for me. Gonna lock horns with my 29.50" I had in 2017.

[Jesse]

Geez. What a mild rest of the month on the GFS.

 

15 in Burns (BNO) currently. 18 @ Baker City.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

15 in Burns (BNO) currently. 18 @ Baker City.

I flipped on fox12 at 6 this morning and it was 9 in Burns and 50 in Coos Bay. Pretty large spread.

[Timmy Supercell]

Huge drop in views on the forum like everyone gave up on winter. Not just at this moment either. 

[TT-SEA]

No melting here yet... and it looks like it will basically be a dry day.

 

Same view this morning... temp rose during the night. Only about 3 or 4 inches left now and that should mostly be gone by tomorrow.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Same view this morning... temp rose during the night. Only about 3 or 4 inches left now and that should mostly be gone by tomorrow.

 

 

Great shots as usual. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 46F last night.  Up to 48F now.  Looks like it's going to be a sunny day.

 

Currently running a +3.6F temp departure for January. 

[MossMan]

My current view.

[MossMan]

Looks like we got down to 46F last night. Up to 48F now. Looks like it's going to be a sunny day.

Lucky you. I might not see the sun again until mid February.

[TT-SEA]

Lucky you. I might not see the sun again until mid February.

 

 

Sun out here now... I should get outside.  

 

[Omegaraptor]

This month kinda reminds me of January 2018. Very torchy and also very drizzly with no heavy rain. 24 days had measurable rain that month, yet it finished right around average in terms of amount of rain.

[Timmy Supercell]

This month kinda reminds me of January 2018. Very torchy and also very drizzly with no heavy rain. 24 days had measurable rain that month, yet it finished right around average in terms of amount of rain.

 

At least the moisture is more widespread regionally in comparison to that one. That was a pretty dry month for the Medford county warning area, same for March.

[Jesse]

This month kinda reminds me of January 2018. Very torchy and also very drizzly with no heavy rain. 24 days had measurable rain that month, yet it finished right around average in terms of amount of rain.

 

If current models are correct, most places in the Portland area will end up above average for rainfall this month. Of course, January 2018 had nothing resembling the progression we went through the last week and a half either, or the great mountain snow pattern.

 

I give this comparison an F.

[MossMan]

This month kinda reminds me of January 2018. Very torchy and also very drizzly with no heavy rain. 24 days had measurable rain that month, yet it finished right around average in terms of amount of rain.

Well we will probably have a repeat of this next month. This was 2/18/18.

[Timmy Supercell]

I don't remember the mountains having any impressive pack in much of 2018 the whole stretch through. 

 

It was drought outlook month after month. Summer was exceptionally dry here as well, I think I only had 1 somewhat moist thunderstorm that year. July 15th.

[MossMan]

Snowmizer...Looks like we are screwed, I just extrapolated.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Well we will probably have a repeat of this next month. This was 2/18/18.

02/12/19. Really was incredible to see.

[Jesse]

I don’t hate these ensembles. Decent.

 

[Jesse]

Sunny morning here. Up to 44.

 

The last few GFS runs have been fairly chilly in the second half.